For those of you who know and follow the 18-year real estate cycle, we are at year 18. What does that mean? Why does it matter.

Last week I asked what is your game plan in 2026. For many if not most of those who responded, they are waiting for the market to correct itself so they can buy right. I sure wish I could take my stopwatch out and do exact market timing.

18 years ago it was 2008. It was a rough ride but we did 16 transactions that year. Indeed, it wasn't pleasant at all. No one was sure how low things would go and if all the money would suddenly dry up. Would it have been foolish for me to wait until the prices dropped to the 1990 levels that I first learned when I started out in 1989? I would not have picked up a single place at all. Looking back at those 2008 purchases, they were solid buys with lots of value add opportunities.

So let fast forward to 2026. If you are simply waiting the market out instead of using your tools to make money in, you are content being a one trick pony. That isn't to say tools like BRRRR aren't valid, but they only work at certain times and better in certain markets. You can wait or you can use another tool take works best in downward markets - like master leasing or options. This will require you to invest in yourself first. A master lease requires little money and even less risk making it ideal for a downward facing market (You know the one you have been waiting on to act)

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Do I have faith that everyone will invest in themselves. There will be those out there who will refuse to adopt to change and wait for the good ol' day's prices to come back. Sorry inflation happened and I can't turn back the clock.

There will be others who will claim that there is an unfair technology advantage.......and indeed there is. Some of you will elect not to use other tools like AI. Truth is you will not have to; you will only need to connivence all your competitors looking for your deal not to use it. That way the playing field is level. The reality is it doesn't matter how much experience you have if you don't have the tools. In my rural area of the US there are 9th graders building battle bots. I don't remember seeing that in that 1970's show.

So what are you to do other than bulk up on transaction tools? Well dollar cost averaging the marketplace allows you to make money in any market anywhere in the real estate cycle. This does however require discipline in finding off market sellers. This is code for bulk up your marketing and ensuring your plenty of capital available.

Ray really didn't make any of these rules. Ray didn't create any of these tools, and Ray can't force anyone to do anything that they don't want to. You can complain about the way things are, or you can make a plan to act on the way things are. Things like the progressive wave that is slowly moving across the map isn't going to suddenly stop.

Seize today!

Never knew or followed an 18 year cycle, but it makes sense.

I have only tried a couple of times to buy from someone with seller financing or an option. The seller was not interested.

As a matter of fact the last one I tried came down on price, which was still way over the top, and it has now been sitting idle on the MLS.

Real estate is not just a price game at all. When prices are thru the roof, you will make an equal amount of money with terms and terms are less threatening. You don't come off as stealing from anyone.

Go ahead and offer them, $1,000,000 for the place, with $100/month payments. Does that cash flow? That is an ideal owner finance situation that will probably get approved. But a master lease would be an easy compromise for a property that isn't moving on the MLS. Why though wait for a property to go on the MLS? Use AI to give you a list of folks who moved out of the area. ReLos are awesome targets for master leasing

Thanks for the info.