I know there are a lot of people that have rented to those from South of the border recently. I know I have a couple that I'm not sure of their status, they did have work visas but are likely expired since they have been here more than a couple of years. I know ton's of them get those and then just don't show up for their appointed court date for their asylum hearing at which point they become illegals again. I'm not sure how a landlord would even start to know their tenants real status.

Wondering if the new Pres's plan to deport illegals enmass is going to cause some vacancies? What do you think?

I'm not too worried about my South Americans.

I'm okay as long as people follow the rules. Even if I might personally disagree with the rules, one way or the other, the rules are what they are. But at least the rules and processes are codified and respected, and I do my business accordingly.

If there are deportations, I expect it to affect those who did not follow the rules before it affects those who did. If the rules change, I expect there will be a timeline for enforcement.

A certain type of tenant generally prefers to take action so they can have maximum control of a situation, rather than being forced to react to something beyond their control. So if there is a timeline for the rules-followers, I would expect them to not wait until the absolute last minute-- they want to do things on their terms.

Rather than private landlords, it will have a big effect on my local government housing. I can think of at least a third of my South American tenants who have pivoted into government housing as soon as they could, even though they had a good house with me. But there's no way I can compete with them on price. I've never figured out how they manage it, because subsidized housing rent rates hinge on your income, and they hike it to discourage people from occupying space they don't financially need. But these families are pulling $4-$6-$8k/month (depending on a single breadwinner vs two) in a town where the average household income is $40k/year, up from $25k/year when we first came here.

Only if you have really low income places and rent to large groups of undocumented persons. Or, I suppose, if you live in one of those sanctuary locations that rents your houses from you to to house the undocumented aliens that their taxpayers are supporting.

In order to be deported, the undocumented have to draw attention to themselves. They do that by breaking the law or otherwise misbehaving rather badly. If they are settled and live quietly, no one will have a reason to arrest them. If they are not arrested, then no one who has the authority to deport them will know where they are.

MikeA that is an interesting predicament.

I had not considered that as a bigger problem because right now I have nobody that fits that description.

It seems obvious to me that the huge influx of foreigners has decreased the supply of available housing units nationwide. Locally, it is hard to tell how many people would move out.

PG ... they either lie or they are "under the table". I have had a few conversations with both the tenant/ prospective tenant as well as case workers about "under the table" and it's a "they know (the worker) and they don't care" from the tenant. When I say something to the worker... it's the same response "yes, we are aware they work under the table - we don't care".

Really? I do... I pay my taxes and everything else but someone else (not speaking about "illegal people" specifically) can work UNDER THE TABLE, NOT pay taxes AND get free housing, utilities and most likely food ...

I entirely respect and support those coming to America legally and jumping through hoops to become a US citizen. We had a great neighbor from the Dominican Republic who came legally, started his own business and purchased a home through the years. We adore his family and hire him when his skills are needed.

My best friend's husband, mother, father and brother came from Pakistan; all became legal citizens over many years. Lovely people.

If they deported all the illegals,

--most restaurants would shut down.

--the price of a new roof would go...through the roof.

--ditto the price of ALL new construction

--hotels would really struggle to find housekeepers

Robert, Ont Canada. I couldn't disagree more. I am originally from Canada but we came here legally and did all the right things. I'm pretty sure that they don't take in illegals like the US did in Canada. We had to take a Civics test get fingerprinted pay a large fine proof that we could speak English and prove that we would not be on the system. We had a green cards for years that started out with the letter "A" for alien before we became naturalized and had to track our whereabouts every year until Bill Clinton came on the scene.

Perhaps some history for how it worked here in Texas.

It used to be pretty routine that ICE would raid the beef packing plants and other businesses (IE roofers) that catered to this crowd and deport hundreds. I remember a few years ago there were 300 hauled in from one packing plant in one day in a small town up the road. It was a mess because kids came home from school not knowing if their parents were picked up, many had to move in with extended family until it got sorted out. It was chaos for a couple of weeks.

The use of spoofed social security cards and other documents is rampant by this crowd to secure jobs. When ICE saw multiple employment I9's with the same SSN at one employer it caused the last problem. These are good jobs but really hard work that pay $25-$40 per hour. The plants have problems filling them so they tend to look the other way as much as they can.

If this process restarts there will be significant impact. It is much more rampant today than it was only a few years ago since there has been little to no enforcement for at least 5 years.

I have 2 tenants that I wonder if there is some risk. In one case the girlfriend is a citizen I know, but he's the breadwinner and I don't know if his work visa is expired, they've been with me over 2 years. The second is a family, I know the kids were born here, the dad is Mexican and he is working here as an electrician. He had a work visa for a Canadian company for a contract that has since completed so I have no idea what his current status is. I do know they have been scraping together money for a lawyer to help them navigate the citizenship hurdles, last year they had paid $6,000 and I know they have continued to funnel money to him over the last year. I just hope I don't end up with a no-notice vacancy on one or both.

We had a roof done about 10-12 years ago on our 3-story. All paperwork seemed in order.

After starting, things changed. A very young crew worker was climbing a ladder to the roof with a bundle of shingles, no harness. He fell backward off the ladder breaking several bones. An ambulance took him to the hospital. We were afraid they were going to sue us. Later we found out he was not on the list of workers and was working off the books. We also found out a fellow who was always scamming the neighbors was hired without our knowledge.

It might be wise to look at this at the 10,000 level.

I would think with less people, there would be less demand for housing. What housing niche is going to be less utilized? I don't believe these folks are renting out class A and B units. I would think class C and maybe class D would have lower demand. This would mean that as landlords we should consider improving the quality of these class C and Ds that we might have before the decrease in demand occurs.

I guess it depends if you want to be proactive or reactive to market demands.

If we had the manpower, some sort of "sorting" would be helpful. Have you been here 10 years, working as a roofer, a tiler, an orderly in a hospital? Have you kept your nose clean and your head down and been a good "citizen?" Have you contributed more than you've taken?

Maybe some sort of track to legal - not citizen, but legal working status.

WMH, that would be a good start.

If the current administration is actually going to remove the federal department of education there will be many people needing jobs.

Maybe some of the good employees could stay on and assist with the paperwork funnel on helping make illegals into legals?

Not saying that everyone who came here illegally gets to stay, but maybe they all don't get booted?

It's a tough call. I say if they broke the rules coming here then they need to restart. But there is the point that if they have been here and proven themselves maybe something else could be done?

There's no question that if 4 million people who are mostly renters (I agree with Phil on that) we will see an effect on the rental market, but what will that affect be?

It could mean prices go down. Savvy investors know that's the time to buy, when things are cheaper. Things usually get cheaper when rents are cheaper. There's also more inventory available as investors who paid to much get foreclosed on. So you make strategic moves to expand inventory while keeping your reserves flush to handle longer vacancies. Maybe a good time to perform some long-delayed maintenance tasks.

It could mean prices remain stable. How so? Folks who've been outbid for certain rentals will have an opportunity to flood into the market from wherever they are currently staying for little to no rent. Mom's and Dad's basement, or doubling up with adult kids, etc. We keep hearing about how rentals are unaffordable, which I presume means there are some people who could pick up the slack, if units were available and prices weren't climbing 8% year over year. How many there are waiting in a shadow renter market, I don't know.

It could mean prices go up! ... in the long term. More room for legal immigrants and US citizens will encourage more people to want to live here. Prices may sink for a few years, but if we get a decent revamp of the immigration system as part of the package, then deportations may soon be eclipsed by new, legal arrivals.

My 2 cents: Wait and see. Be ready for any scenario. Learn strategies to make money in every market, not just so-called "good" markets. What's bad for X is good for Y. So find a way to always be "Y".

Higher vacancy = cheaper property.

Lower vacancy = higher rents.

Status quo = good time to establish reserves and work on improving your business strategy and practices.

It will never become a huge program. 1+ million maybe and tougher border restrictions. The cost will become the obstacle.

It will never become a huge program. 1+ million maybe and tougher border restrictions. The cost will become the obstacle.

[[[[[[...... some sort of "sorting" would be helpful. Have you been here 10 years, working as a roofer, a tiler, an orderly in a hospital? Have you kept your nose clean and your head down and been a good "citizen?" Have you contributed more than you've taken?.......]]]]]

Here's what happens when that is proposed (which it has been and publicly announced). The aliens fresh across the border show up with 10 years worth of rent receipts and utility bills in their pockets. That actually has happened.

the same as announcing that children who cross illegally get to stay. Bus loads of children were sent into America, being herded by smugglers. That actually has happened

In North Idaho, roofers and construction workers and gardeners are all Americans. Americans will do those jobs.

If Americans really refuse to do a job, then there are guest worker visas for the industries that can not find labor. The Sheep ranchers have been bringing Basque shepherds legally for many decades because Americans won't do that job.

Little bit of common sense tells me :

Start with the +400k known criminals.

That will take the better part of 4 years.

Our local observations during the last Repub administration: We have a local Guatemalan population. Some are legal, some are not.

We have a church ministry with their kids. So we knew some of the families personally that were affected.

ICE deported the dads only. The also illegal moms were left here with the kids who were mostly born here and therefore citizens...but with little or no income. It was a bad situation.

Most of the dads returned later. They came again, illegally. Went back to the same jobs.

By "deport them all", you mean including the citizens? You would support deporting American citizens?

I do not agree that if a person is born here thru illegal parents then that person is automatically legal.

Then you start deporting the illegals and the kids are left alone, or a parent stays on but they are illegal.

I have seen the same thing happen with government handouts. Woman decides she wants more free stuff and gets pregnant again.

Pmh: You're missing the point. It is more complex than that.

Gevan was discussing a situation where the parents are illegals, but the child is a legal US citizen. He admitted it was complex, but then said to "deport them all." So I simply asked if he meant deporting legal American citizens. That is what he seemed to imply.

Or, if you say to NOT deport the American citizen (the child)... Now what? Deport both parents and allow the baby to stay here??

zero: You can "not agree" with the 14th Amendment, but that doesn't make it any less real. There is no "viable plan" for this situation that isn't one of the two things you've already mentioned: either the kids are left alone or the parents stay that were illegal. You just said that you don't want those two things. Your only other option is to ignore the 14th Amendment...

John, I only meant deport all the illegals. But...it is complex because many of the legal, born in the USA children are minors with no legal citizen as a parent or guardian.

I have no problem with immigrants in general. I am the descendant of immigrants.

Specific case: one of our local born in USA kids, born to illegally here parents, is my Goddaughter. Her mother worked a minimum wage (or even less) job in the motel industry. She died in a car crash. Her father was deported under Trump's last term. She and her siblings were left here in the care of an older cousin (also legal).

We saw several families torn apart by deportation, because ICE deported fathers and ignored mothers.

Most of the fathers have returned, again illegally.

One thing I always had trouble understanding was why people, with all of these oppressive regimes in their own home countries, didn't work to solve the crises at home, whether through the legal process, military coup, or through popular revolution.

I was reading an old book (1920's?) about South American history. One of the points that it made in passing was that North America was colonized for opportunity, and that perspective has remained in the culture-- but South America was controlled by a series of powers who were only interested in gathering as much wealth and resources as they could, before the next power took over. So for centuries, the leadership has been more interested in gathering wealth/personal gain rather than in political success, and the people merely trade one set of oppressors for the next. And this cycle also leads to further instability--- Venezuela has had 26 constitutions since 1811; Ecuador has had 20 since 1830. The Dominican Republic, in the Caribbean, has had 39 since gaining independence in 1844.

I thought that was an interesting perspective, especially seeing how things have progressed in the century since that book was written. Not just the dictators and the oppressive regimes, but the cartels as well--- no real feeling for anything but plunder, control, and immediate gain.

gevans: Agreed on pretty much all accounts.

Maybe it is time to look at tweaking the 14th?

The 14th amendment was created shortly after the Civil War. (Passed by Congress in 1866- ratified in 1868.) Its original purpose wasn't oriented towards immigrants, but rather, to confirm/enforce/protect the citizenship of people who had formerly been enslaved.

Interestingly enough, the Irish potato famine was about 10-20 years prior to the 14th amendment. Germany was another major source of immigrants. By 1850, 15 years prior to the 14th Amendment, about 10% of the US population had been born overseas. (2.2M out of 23.2 M total.) By 1860, it was about 13%.

So, for those interested in "tweaking" the 14th amendment because things are different now than what was intended back then -- are you also so open to "tweaking" the 2nd amendment since things are so different now?

(That's rhetorical people...)

:)

The simple answer is to modify the 14th to eliminate the granting of citizenship for babies born to non-citizens in the US. There is a whole cottage industry of "birth tourism" that has sprung up in this country in the last 20 years. There are companies that specialize in arranging birth tourism for wealthy people from other countries. China (Hong Kong) leads the list.

Add to that the significant incentive it creates for those South of us to come here illegally so their baby becomes a citizen and it creates a huge problem.

Data point:

I have 15 units occupied by friends/families from other countries. Two units are "ordinary" (one is a set of Cuban refugees; another is a mom/dad/adult son where the parents are from Mexico). The other thirteen are from October, 2021 onwards, when the rules for coming into the US from Colombia/Venezuela/Peru changed and they made it easier to cross in, get authorization paperwork, and get work permits.

One of my units, which is occupied by a friend group of single males who pool resources, wrote to me and said they were thinking about leaving on January 4th. They have their work permits and their social security cards that give them authorization to be employed, and they each pull about $4k/month individually from the local factory, but they're still anxious to retreat to a sanctuary state, just in case. If nothing happens, they look forward to returning at the end of next year, because they like our town.

So, right before Thanksgiving--- it's looking like 1 of 15 (1 of 13? depending on how you look at it) is generating a vacancy, but rather than a self-deportation, it's more of a change of scenery to a state where they expect the state government to interfere with any federal enforcement that might affect them. Personally, I expect them to prioritize felons and the undocumented over people who followed the rules, even if the rules were much more lenient than what they had been previously--- but we'll see how things develop.

I'm also expecting my single males to be a bit more flighty. I expect my couples and families to stay put longer. We'll see how that develops, too. Most of my guys who started off as single males have brought their wives and children over, so I have a lot fewer single males left than I did in that 2021-2022 period, when I expected them to just send money back home, like my H2B visa guys did.

Deanna: Arizona in the very recent past has tried to seal their border with shipping containers. The Fed told them no, you must remove the barriers.

To clarify that case a bit... Arizona was putting the containers on both tribal and federal land including those controlled by the US Forest Service without permission. That is why they were told to remove them. A state does not have control over federal (nor tribal) land.

The Feds filed a lawsuit against Arizona and Arizona immediately removed them and started fixing the forest damages that they had caused.

The Feds then dropped the case, of course.

So, yes, Arizona wasted a ton of money doing something that they didn't have permission to do -- and is now stuck with a bunch of shipping containers. Huge waste of taxpayer money because their Governor did whatever he wanted without proper collaboration (or common sense).

On a side note, even the temporary wall was poorly done and didn't work. They had gaps that you could EASILY walk through! It was pretty pointless unless someone was trying to drive a car across through there. (Which they weren't.)

Incredible waste of a couple hundred million dollars.

Lets be clear why he did it. Because there were gaps in the wall that the administration was dragging their feet on after they shut down the border wall build 4 years earlier. Meanwhile tens of thousands of illegal immigrants were simply walking into Tucson and Yuma with no border enforcement happening.

Deanna, that's interesting. If they have their work permits and they are in fact valid then they are here legally, they should have nothing to worry about. Their response makes me wonder if they are in-fact valid legal documents or just copies of someone else's paperwork that they've been using illegally.

He did it to try to make a political point for his own purposes -- at the expense of hundreds of millions in taxpayer dollars. Seriously -- he wanted to make a big public spectacle and wasted an incredible amount of money to do it. He knew from the start that it wouldn't stay/work.

And, again, what they built STILL DIDN'T WORK. It had 5' gaps all over the place because, even for $100,000,000, they apparently couldn't get a crew to place the stinking containers properly!

Maybe he should have let a few more of those workers over the boarder first so that someone with skills to actually place a container box could have worked on it! Sheesh.

Mike, it pivots back to the point I made in my first post--

A certain type of tenant generally prefers to take action so they can have maximum control of a situation, rather than being forced to react to something beyond their control. So if there is a timeline for the rules-followers, I would expect them to not wait until the absolute last minute-- they want to do things on their terms.

You can reassure them, or encourage them to wait and see what there is to react to. But some people are wired to toss everything aside and run, just for the sake of being able to leave on their own terms.

I remember one of the only times I'd purchased a unit with the tenant in place. He had graduated from high school a few years previously, he did a little yard care on the side, but mostly he did recreational drugs and sponged off his grandma, who was the cafeteria lady and who cleaned houses on the side. He was the special pet project of the landlord couple who were selling us a bulk deal, and they asked us to let him stay there for at least six months.

So we put him on our lease. We would never have picked him ourselves, but at least he was a little income, and we kept him on as a favor. We made it clear that everything was the same, that nothing would change--- except his unauthorized roommate's unauthorized dog was going to be an extra $25/month. Grandma certainly wasn't paying for the dog, too, in addition to covering all her grandson's other bills. The unauthorized roommate was insulted. The grandson himself had his world turned upside down. $25/month! What would come next???

He gave us his notice. He was going to move in with his girlfriend, and his friend was going on his own way as well. He would rather pull up stakes and upend his entire life, rather than worry about what else we might do. He valued control, because there was so much out of his control in his life--- even if it meant doing things outside his own best interests. But by saying, "I'm leaving my own house on my own terms---" that was what made him feel safe and comfortable.