RE Outlook for 2024 (by GKARL [PA]) Nov 18, 2023 9:55 PM|
RE Outlook for 2024 (by MikeA [TX]) Nov 18, 2023 10:33 PM
RE Outlook for 2024 (by Deanna [TX]) Nov 18, 2023 10:39 PM
RE Outlook for 2024 (by Richard [MI]) Nov 18, 2023 10:46 PM
RE Outlook for 2024 (by Ken [NY]) Nov 18, 2023 11:13 PM
RE Outlook for 2024 (by unb [GA]) Nov 19, 2023 6:22 AM
RE Outlook for 2024 (by WMH [NC]) Nov 19, 2023 8:34 AM
RE Outlook for 2024 (by zero [IN]) Nov 19, 2023 11:43 AM
RE Outlook for 2024 (by GKARL [PA]) Nov 19, 2023 1:10 PM
RE Outlook for 2024 (by LTD [AZ]) Nov 19, 2023 1:34 PM
RE Outlook for 2024 (by Tony [NJ]) Nov 19, 2023 5:46 PM
RE Outlook for 2024 (by GKARL [PA]) Nov 19, 2023 6:07 PM
RE Outlook for 2024 (by Dave [MO]) Nov 19, 2023 6:54 PM
RE Outlook for 2024 (by Deanna [TX]) Nov 19, 2023 10:54 PM
RE Outlook for 2024 (by S i d [MO]) Nov 20, 2023 8:36 AM
RE Outlook for 2024 (by PG [SC]) Nov 20, 2023 9:57 AM
RE Outlook for 2024 (by Ray-N-Pa [PA]) Nov 20, 2023 7:12 PM
RE Outlook for 2024 (by GKARL [PA]) Nov 20, 2023 8:25 PM
RE Outlook for 2024 (by Tarheel T [NC]) Nov 22, 2023 6:07 AM
RE Outlook for 2024 (by T [IN]) Nov 22, 2023 7:01 PM
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RE Outlook for 2024 (by GKARL [PA]) Posted on: Nov 18, 2023 9:55 PM
In my local area, there's literally nothing that makes sense to buy. It's as if everyone has an elevated expectation of cashing in. I just think that higher interest rates have yet to be reflected in asking prices and opportunities are just harder to find. Where do you think the opportunities are? Do you think prices will moderate or reverse in 2024? If you had access to a large sum how would you deploy given the current conditions? Or would you do nothing and just sit on your hands? --209.122.xx.xxx
RE Outlook for 2024 (by MikeA [TX]) Posted on: Nov 18, 2023 10:33 PM
As always, RE is very local. I know here, things are starting to turn acquisition friendly if you have cash. Way less people at foreclosure and tax sales, lots more inventory in the MLS. More recently I have seen lots of properties lowering their price in the MLS. That's usually an early indicator that some sellers are beginning to get desperate. My best guess is that it will hit close to bottom next year although I don't think this bottom will be anywhere close to as low as the last couple, more like a dribble of good deals. If it's like the past, once you start seeing the fed discussing lowering interest rates you will only have a few months to jump before it comes back. It wouldn't surprise me to see that happen late next year. That's just my guess based on what I'm seeing now (and knowing we are coming up on an election year). --209.205.xxx.xx
RE Outlook for 2024 (by Deanna [TX]) Posted on: Nov 18, 2023 10:39 PM
I like to grow when it makes sense, and solidify what I have when it makes sense.
Right now, electricians are the hardest to come by, and that backlog is seriously affecting my ability to get my renovations moving. I'm so used to my HVAC people being journeymen electricians, but now, there are months in between getting an HVAC installed and getting the electrical run up to connect it. It's crazy. But I have three different HVAC companies I'm using in various places, and two of the companies have their own in-house electrician teams--- but there's still a huge delay. I even tried giving one of them the one-stop-shop approach by giving them the plumbing/electrical/HVAC business on one house, and the electrical/HVAC on another house, hoping that the bulk business would bump me up on the priority list instead of getting bumped for others-- and I always pay them within a day or two of the bill hitting--- but I'm still waiting five, six, seven months for my turn to even start something, or move from Phase 1 to Phase 2.
So because my current renovations are stagnating, I'm not stressing too much about taking on new projects. At Halloween, I did pick up a 1000-sf 2/1 from 1960 (originally built as a duplex, but turned into a sfh early on in its life) as a private sale, just for the cost of back taxes. I'm looking forward to that one-- and have already lined up the electrical and HVAC. In theory, the HVAC team is working 2 weeks out, but the electrical team is working 3 months out. Otherwise, I would seriously be trying to get it move-in ready by the New Year, just to make up for the other renovations that are stalling. I'm finally at the point where my budget can support two or three renovations in one year, but my access to manpower is throttling the progress I was anticipating. --137.118.xx.xxx
RE Outlook for 2024 (by Richard [MI]) Posted on: Nov 18, 2023 10:46 PM
Same here. Prices have not come down yet. Credit card balances are at record highs and people in trouble are increasing at a high rate. I don't think the interest rates are going to drop for a while and the levels of debt piling up are unpayable. When the shtf, I'm thinking that the biggest losers in the housing market will be those in the middle - from about 200K-600K. The last time or two - 1980 and 2007/08, that price range took the worst hit where I was at. The low end properties, C and D level and the high end properties (houses) over 1 million were not as affected. I believe the low end were less affected because they had less to lose - maybe they went down 20 percent. The high end were not affected so much where I was because there were MANY very rich people and if you own the bank or know someone who does you can get a loan anytime at a good rate. It was the middle that got hit hard. I owned a construction company in coastal California at the time and had no slowdown in income because I shifted to working for the rich people.
These days, I look for low end places that need repairs. There are always people with problems that want to get rid of their places to solve their problems.
Another thing I'm doing is looking in other countries. Why not this one you might ask? Look at the current political situation. Look at the tenant and criminal friendly laws being passed. The restrictions in New York and Calif and Mass. I suspect it will spread, especially if things don't change. There are better opportunities in other places. Why not go where you are treated best".
RE Outlook for 2024 (by Ken [NY]) Posted on: Nov 18, 2023 11:13 PM
I am getting a few here and there from burned out landlords who cant deal with the new laws in my state.Have you considered going to foreclosure auctions?Deanna,have you considered hiring a good handyman as an employee? he is then at your direction to get done whatever you want whenever you want. --74.77.xx.xx
RE Outlook for 2024 (by unb [GA]) Posted on: Nov 19, 2023 6:22 AM
The announcement from the B office in Washington that poor people can't ever buy homes because there spending 43% of their income on rent is good news. B has nothing else to give away at this point so why not free money to people who want to own a home. Step this way says the willey investor group. The group/groups who have been buying everything in site the last 24 months.
Put your money? you could open your own bank in the Caymans. Pay to become a citizen of Nevis.
RE Outlook for 2024 (by WMH [NC]) Posted on: Nov 19, 2023 8:34 AM
I see prices being lowered a bit but they are so high to begin with it doesn't matter. Trailers listed for 300k+ Old homes that need everything, ditto. Rents going down or holding stagnant as folks who are trying to get out of the AirBnB market get into long-term rentals. Glad we never tried to chase the top of the market.
So we are sitting on the cash built up from NOT buying and slowing doing some "Lipstick on a Pig" things to our existing rentals, and using our time to refine our processes as we teach our son the ropes. We have given him a vote - well, an opinion not a real vote - which is actually helpful when we hit a stalemate.
I'm glad we are not getting into the market now I really am. --108.4.xx.xxx
RE Outlook for 2024 (by zero [IN]) Posted on: Nov 19, 2023 11:43 AM
In my area things are still high and help is still non-existent. To avoid burn-out completely I just sold a place. Didn't want to but I know the current project will take me well into next year. I have a smaller place to contend with after that, not to mention anything that comes up on the other places.
So I didn't want to deal with covering holding on a place that needs everything done. I should close next week. Will pay off the note, pay Uncle Sam and get a little money to pump back into the other projects.
The stress relief alone is worth not holding out for big bucks once completed.
Now I can work on the one big project and then decide if I will hold or sell it. I have current tenants that want it. They will stay for a long time either way. Then I will have to update their place tho.
All depends on what the market is like once I am done with this one. Good part about putting them in is that I will not have to complete the outside projects before I move them. I can do that as time permits.
Still sitting on the cash out refi money I got right when the rates went up. I keep putting offers in on places but they are always below market. I figure that eventually the market will change or I will get lucky again. --107.147.xx.xxx
RE Outlook for 2024 (by GKARL [PA]) Posted on: Nov 19, 2023 1:10 PM
I sold a hard to rent SFH earlier this year and concentrated my efforts on wrapping up the renovations on a 7 unit I have. Thankfully, I'm at the end of that and I would love to have a similar project. For the most part, I've been blessed to have mostly good contractors but there were hiccups here and there. This was a fairly good sized project and I've found that it's easier to find people. I hired an excellent floor guy from Thumbtack. I had to replace one electrician with another and I actually split the work up between three electricians.
IMO, development/renovation/turnaround remains the opportunity because that requires certain management skills that most newbie types don't have. I think this is an environment where those who are inexperienced are going to have their heads handed to them. Far too many folks have speculated on price appreciation IMO.
RE Outlook for 2024 (by LTD [AZ]) Posted on: Nov 19, 2023 1:34 PM
Look for interest rates to drop some by late summer - before the election. A drop to 6% will stimulate sales and be in line with norms. Too many years of 3% spoiled people. I hope folks think things through carefully this next election, because a felon led fascist / racist America will not be good for real estate. Burning buildings don't sell well.
Our area residential appears to be stagnating. More homes coming on market but not selling. Even with price drops. Our Boomer retirement market has stopped. In our hood the high point sale was $650k early last winter. Some folks bought that home, stayed until the reality of 115 deg heat hit them in June, left and put it up for sale for $675k. 5 mo later it's languishing at $595k. I feel bad for them. And now there's three others in the $500-550k range. Not a good sign.
But commercial is going great. There's been at least 25 new restaurants open. Three new giant gas stations, a Cal Ranch is opening along with Dollar Generals. No manufacturing. I've been trying to find some light manufacturing contracts for my building - but the "build back better" is hogwash for only the mega-connected.
RE Outlook for 2024 (by Tony [NJ]) Posted on: Nov 19, 2023 5:46 PM
Depends on the presidential election in a year. --73.215.xxx.xx
RE Outlook for 2024 (by GKARL [PA]) Posted on: Nov 19, 2023 6:07 PM
I just think presidents don't have as much power as the Fed does. Interest rates were going up no matter what particularly when the Fed is unwinding its treasury position. This is made worst by folks not showing up at the auctions. As long as this situation persists, I don't see relief on rates unless the Fed starts another QE deal and starts buying treasuries That may occur as there are still some banks in trouble. We'll see, but for now I'm not looking to get too leveraged. The numbers have to work and they're not at the moment. --172.58.xxx.xxx
RE Outlook for 2024 (by Dave [MO]) Posted on: Nov 19, 2023 6:54 PM
Our economy is at 4% inflation down from 8%. GP, says he wants 2%. Unemployment is @ 3.8 %
Wal Mart, sees deflation in 2024
I believe it will take longer to get to 2% from 4% than it was to go from 8% to 4% inflation.
Banks are making debt consolidation loans from high interest credit cards.
My believe is higher for longer.
RE Outlook for 2024 (by Deanna [TX]) Posted on: Nov 19, 2023 10:54 PM
Ken-- I have one handyman I rely on for 99% of my stuff, but he's more of a carpenter-type handyman. He can do the drywall, painting, flooring, construction type of things, but he's terrible when it comes to plumbing or electrical. So I've learned to keep him in his lane. On the plus side, he's willing to deal with my salvage operations, which are neither fun nor easy. :) On the minus side, up until recently, I haven't had the financial resources to keep him permanently occupied, so I'm always encouraging and understanding when he has other clients, because that gives me a chance to refresh the coffers. I'm also acutely aware that I'm a whole lot more loyal to him than he is to me. ;) On one of his away-periods, I've actually tried hiring a different handyman team-- the leader of which was also a journeyman electrician, and who DH had used on our office project in a nearby town-- to work on my two-story Victorian just a few blocks away from that office, but they turned their nose up at it.
So, being in a rural area is kind of a balancing act. If I was in a metropolitan area, I'd have a ton of access to varying degrees of skill. In an isolated area, though, everyone is in everyone's business, and I can probably write a whole chapter on all the random people who have expressed interest in working for me--- and I give them a chance--- and how poorly it turns out. ;) --137.118.xx.xxx
RE Outlook for 2024 (by S i d [MO]) Posted on: Nov 20, 2023 8:36 AM
What kinds of deals are you looking for: residential, commercial, or both?
Residential in my area is still fairly high. For every 10 new listings that comes in from my Zillow search filter, I see one price decrease, and it's usually not much... 2-3% maybe.
Older 3 bed, 2 bath houses still sell like hot cakes to owner-occupied buyers. No one is building those in the "entry level" price range. New properties are usually 4 bedroom, 3 bath and priced at the first or second step up after entry level. I just sold a trashed out 3/2 that I picked up off market from an heir to an estate in less than a month for $30K over what I paid for it.
Older bungalow style 2/1s like my little bread and butter "ATMs" are in the $70K - $120K range, depending on condition. They're still at double what they were 3 years ago. No sign of deals to be had there.
Anything 1970s or newer (I know... 50 years old is "newer"!) goes at or close to at full asking price still. Takes a little longer, but they're selling. Forget about them unless all you want is appreciation over the long haul. Rents don't justify the cost.
Commercial is a mixed bag. Retail is cheaper to purchase, but harder to rent since there's so much of it sitting around vacant.
Light manufacturing/body shop/automotive shops like what I have is hard to find at any price, but rents are strong and vacancies fill quickly. A creative person can repurpose unused commercial land to generate more rent from storage, outdoor parking, etc. This is where deals can be found because many Sellers only price the property based on the rent they were getting, and there aren't many comps to justify a higher price since properties are different. I love big metal boxes with concrete floors: maintenance is low and tenants are mostly self-sufficient. Get some of those on a lot with extra land and go to town!
So there are deals, but like anything we have to adapt to the times. Whatever you were buying 10 years ago or even 5 years ago... look in a difference niche. I think single family residential will continue to struggle for investors for the foreseeable future, unless you're going after gut-to-the-studs rehabs, and as Deanna mentioned finding the labor to turn those projects in a timely manner makes that hard unless you already have a crew. Turnkey small to mid-range commercial seems the best bet in my area, because the prices are higher ($200K - $1 million) you don't have any competition from the folks who just sat through a 3-day "How to buy property with no money down" guru seminars.
Dig in your backyard for diamonds, but don't dig in the same place you did last time.
RE Outlook for 2024 (by PG [SC]) Posted on: Nov 20, 2023 9:57 AM
In my rural area - Prices dropping a little - a few small 3x2-nothing fancy-$140 a sq ft - being built - cheap flips - BUT near by cities and larger towns - commercial and residential development is wide open. And I see no change in 2024.
DEANNA - Same here with small town rural area skill level. The good - fair price guys are 3 to 4 months out, if you can get them to bid.
I just did a waste drain around a slab. 1800 bid from a plumber that is so-so - And a commercial plumber bid 4000.
My super handy man became available and a laborer I have used for years. I just planned the work the part I enjoy.
Completed for $1200. --184.20.xx.xxx
RE Outlook for 2024 (by Ray-N-Pa [PA]) Posted on: Nov 20, 2023 7:12 PM
On the residential side of the house here, things are staying strong. For rental, I see more progressive politics coming into play. If a seller prices the place right, and its move in ready - it sells quickly.
There are small parts of the commercial market that are weakened but are still strong.
What could change this? a Credit crunch
RE Outlook for 2024 (by GKARL [PA]) Posted on: Nov 20, 2023 8:25 PM
Sid, you make a good point about commercial. There are two reasons this may be fertile ground: 1) Mitigates against potential rent control movement that affects residential and 2) Far less competition and folks bidding up prices. There was someone here locally who was saying the same thing about auto repair shops. --209.122.xx.xxx
RE Outlook for 2024 (by Tarheel T [NC]) Posted on: Nov 22, 2023 6:07 AM
i haven't found anything to buy in 3+ years, cash has built up. Im laddering 17 week t-bills since they are state tax free. i have enough to buy 1 property a week cash, for 17 weeks. i keep my real estate bucket either invested in re or in cash, no stock market. This is a bad time for anyone starting out, unless they are patient. A recession is needed. --24.177.xxx.xxx
RE Outlook for 2024 (by T [IN]) Posted on: Nov 22, 2023 7:01 PM
I just asked another local RE investor his thoughts for the next 12-24 months. He said the election.... I say it doesn't matter.
Powell keeps rates at this level or higher, more $$ leaves the market. Making $$ more scarce to fund; slowing the economy. The banks are in a little bit of pickle... the 3% mortgages are paying, but that mortgage isn't worth it on the balance sheet. Can't sell it unless they want a loss. They need new money in to pay a higher interest rate, but most are investing in Tbill themselves. With that said, the people with a 3% mortgage are not selling their house. Even though they are ready to move to a bigger house. So that keeps the market supply tight...
Commercial side: eeks, office sector is going to be ugly. Lots of huge buildings coming up for sale. Especially if they were purchased 2012-1019. Industrial sector will remain strong long as we keep re-shoring China jobs state side. Retail, all about location... as usual. Multi family, I think it can look bad soon. Lots of leveraged deals in the last 5 yrs. Higher % rates off setting rental rate increases.
My local RV industry went crazy post covid. Local trailer frame plant was making 3k/week... to 13k/week during covid. Then collapsed to 1500/week last year. Back to 3k/week for Jan 2024. But no one locally has $$ it seems. No one is moving.. selling house nor moving apts. It has been deadville on the rental side for the past 3 months. Landlords are DROPPING rent to fill vacancy. --170.203.xxx.xxx
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