I guess I need to have a subway sandwich for lunch tomorrow and pick our local owner's brain.

I stumbled across a business for sale about 20 miles from my home. Owners of this small shop have had it for about 30 years and they want to retire. The have done well with it and I know it was an up hill battle for them as they are first generation immigrants in a small town in NE Ohio.

Their kids don't want to take over running the business. Honestly, I personally would think it would be a royal pain. But the place is priced right so I thought would call the place up and talk with the seller of the business.

Awesome move this evening about 7:30.......that made my day

One of the concerns the business owner has is one of the two owners of the real estate just passed on two months ago. He said the surviving landlord is considering selling the real estate and they don't want to own a sandwich shop without having a place to put their shingle. I asked them why they wouldn't just buy the place and they said they were in their 60's and didn't think it was a good idea to take out a long business loan. So I asked them three follow up questions. I need to discuss these questions with my local subway shop owner.

1) How much are they asking for the real estate?

2) What was the commercial lease format?

3) What are you paying currently for rent?

I got some pleasant answers but I am not sure how they stack up apples to apples with another subway shop (Or should I be saying Roast Chicken Sandwich to Roast Chicken Sandwich)

I am not pulling anyone's leg when I say just about anyone can make the leap into commercial real estate.........

1) Seller wants $175,000 for real estate

2) The lease is a modified NN where the exterior of the building, HVAC systems, roof, paving, doors and windows are the Landlords responsibility. Plowing and mowing is the tenant's responsibility

3) The Subway is paying $1,375 a month

The franchise itself is for sale for $240,000.

When I talk with my local Subway operator, I will ask him if he is interested in picking up a second store. I haven't seen any of the specific financials but those initial numbers look promising. I am expecting the restaurant to do about $1,500 in sales daily on average based on what I saw with the Pizza Hut.

Personally, I wouldn't mine being a silent partner in the business if doing so feeds me rent money. I understand Subway really isn't a destination - In my case it is a place where you end up at due to lack of planning. I am in a position to be the bank on the entire deal, but know the operator would need skin in the game

What are your Thoughts about This?

Ray,

Most importantly, it is not Roast Chicken Sandwich to Roast Chicken Sandwich.

Clearly, it must be Turkey and Swiss to Turkey and Swiss.

Being strictly a residential property guy for 35 years, I have nothing of value to offer.

However, I appreciated your excellent summary and will be following the thread with great interest.

Needless to say, clogged toilets & tenants arguing with other tenants have become annoying after so long. Fortunately, I have not lost any rent due to the pandemic scamming tenants many have had to endure.

Commercial real estate might be worth a good look.

Ray,

Most importantly, it is not Roast Chicken Sandwich to Roast Chicken Sandwich.

Clearly, it must be Turkey and Swiss to Turkey and Swiss.

Being strictly a residential property guy for 35 years, I have nothing of value to offer.

However, I appreciated your excellent summary and will be following the thread with great interest.

Needless to say, clogged toilets & tenants arguing with other tenants have become annoying after so long. Fortunately, I have not lost any rent due to the pandemic scamming tenants many have had to endure.

Commercial real estate might be worth a good look.

I know the Subway in our town has seemed to be on its last leg ever since I moved here 12 years ago. Every time you go in there during the evening you will be the only customer. They must do enough business though as they keep chugging along.

RayRay,

Nationwide Subway is not doing well. Closing stores.

The 2 close to me are super quiet. No cars, no customers while the Taco Bell drive thru across the street has 9 cars in line. TB’s dining room is closed, drive thru only.

Articles say new fast food builds are going drive thru only.

And help is nearly impossible to find. On a recent visit the teenage girl was the only worker in the building at night.

A lot of people like me are eliminating bread of any kind from our diets.

PS

Hears ago I asked the richest man in my town about me buying a restaunt for sale. He said the quickest way to lose a million dollars is to buy a restaurant.

With the middle class losing ground, it looks to me that less people are eating out (except maybe in tourist areas?). I was charged $2.50 for a SMALL soda at Burger King a couple days ago, not the under a dollar price I paid before - but $2.50- never again! Prices have gone through the roof from inflation. As the middle class maxes out their credit cards, I'm thinking sales will fall and lots of restaurant's will go under. I'd be careful of getting involved in that type of business at this time.

A few years ago, i had the opportunity to buy s medical building that was leased to the VA as a clinic in my are. 1/3 of the building was empty so the numbers were fair. A few months later, the VA clinic decided to expand and took the rest of the building, long term. They are not going away, I think, and the govt is paying the lease. Good to go.

I'm currently looking for a commercial building but I want more stable tenants , like medical or govt.

Appreciate the inputs so far...please keep them coming.

I want to make sure it is clear, Ray will only be the banker if the business is purchased- not an operator.

Would you all consider buying the real estate cheaply, with the existing business for sale - assuming we didn't buy the business?

Great summary Ray.

Brad makes a good point about the trends in eating out. Keto diets are still popular, and bread--ironically the staple that got the human race from cave man up to the modern era--is suddenly a cuss word. Granted, much modern bread is highly processed and void of the ingredients that made it such a healthy staple, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say "this diet fad too shall pass."

The question is how LONG will the fad take to pass? My pockets aren't endless like the Fed Govt pretends theirs are.

And what do you put into a building that used to be a Subway shop? While I love the flexibility of commercial, it seems like cities try to make it almost impossible with some building uses. I got on the phone with city planning and development yesterday regarding a garage door I wanted to add to the side of my concrete block and brick building, just for making it easier to move equipment in and out. Gotta have a permit... gotta apply for a "use change."

Flippin' seriously? The new tenant just wants to STORE STUFF in there and run his Ebay resale business. But oh no, that involves the city.

We won't mention to the city that my plan for that door originally was to make it into an auto-shop. (*wink). We'll just let that use come into play later... quietly.

So now you have to think if the Subway tanks, what else but another restaurant could use the building, and how much will the city demand you (or your new tenant) do to make it work to their standards?

I hear coffee shops are "da bomb" when it comes to cash flow. Spend 50 cents to make a specialty drink you sell for $5. That mark up makes beer and liquor a value purchase by comparison!

Anyway, you know your stuff, so I'll be interested to follow the story and hear what you find out.

P.S. I'm highly skeptical of the keto and many other fad diets for sustained healthy weight maintenance. I've know 5 people who went all in with keto/high protein/even higher fat... they each lost between 20-50 lbs... then when the diet got burdensome to maintain, they went back to their old ways, gained every pound back and then added some lbs on top.

The problem with all these fad diets: keto, paleo, whole-30, Adkins, Jenny Craig, etc. is they are not long-term sustainable for the vast majority of people. The way to lose weight and keep it off is gradual modifications to reduce caloric intake below the level of calories you expend in a given day. Regardless of what diet you're on, if you're eating 2,500 calories but are only burning 2,000... you're going to gain weight. Period. End of sentence.

Most docs and dieticians refuse to tell you this: every fad diet out there is simply a way to trick you into eating fewer calories, and long-term they're a royal pain in the butt to keep up with. So the solution is simple: eat what you like, but control how much you eat. And however you do that, eat some vitamin-rich stuff at least a couple times a day.

The guy who did the Twinkie diet proves this works,although you don't want to follow his example long-term either. It's all about calories in minus calories out. If that's negative, you will lose weight. Every time. Without fail. For me personally, I knock down 2-3 beers a day on average, eat BBQ regularly (pull pork, ribs, and brisket...MMMMM!!!) and yet I weigh 175 lbs at 5 foot 11 inches. That's only 5 lbs more than I weighed in college in 1997. I started weight lifting that year and have been tracking my weight ever since. Not bad for a 47-year-old dude. Lift weights 2-3 times per week... cardio (walk the dog, modest jog, ride bicycle, etc) for 30 minutes 2-3 times a week.

For men, maintaining muscle mass as we age is one of the best things we can do to maintain a healthy weight. I also gave up soda in college...and I'm not a big fan of sugary foods. I credit those two simple things along with modest exercise for keeping me at a healthy weight. To be fair, I do scarf a maple bacon long-john donut now and then... all things in moderation make one's diet simple to maintain. And I never gorge myself. No all-you-can-eat buffets.

Myob you had Carvel in the south? There are still some in NYC that I visit. Grew up w Carvel by me. I thought dairy queen ruled the rest of the country.

Ray, the Sunway by me is a tiny piece on a corner next to a gas station. There is very little parking, it doesn't look attractive, and I know the owner isn't treating the employees or the business well. Guess my point is, subway is trending in the wrong direction. I would think if you bought the land they would put off retirement. How long a lease would you need to make that work? If the location is good and you are in a summer community then some scout will put it on their list. At the worst you could line up a food truck(s) and make it a summer destination if the brick n mortar fails.

Not eating bread isn't a fad. Today's bread is not the same as Gramma's. I know because DH still makes bread at home for company and it's 4 ingredients: flour, water, butter, yeast. Try to find a loaf of commercially prepared bread with just those ingredients.

Americans are riddled with diabetes and one of the quickest way to elevate blood sugars is to eat bread. I say "Whole grain" is the fad, trying to make you believe that darker bread is healthier than "white bread." No difference. Both bad for you.

Here the biggest problem is getting help. I bet that immigrant couple was working in their Subway shop all day every day. So their labor was essentially free and they could keep a constant eye on things. Being in fast food means continually hiring and training new staff.

I would not get involved with the Subway franchise group. Their trains never run on time. The stopping points are clean but very impersonal. I would buy the Cousins Sub Shops in Milwaukee for the right price. My wife and I would do the distance contact on-line thing cuz Ohio is as far North as she is comfortable with. Those folks have a very marketable product.

I am thinking a field trip is called for. I will get up with Aldo while I am up there and either way it will be a fun time.

We went to a McDonald's recently because I needed something greasy after a doctor's appointment - and we spent $26 on LUNCH at McDonald's.

$26. For two sandwiches, one drink, one small fry, one large fry.

At McDonald's...

I'll add: The way to make money in fast food franchises is to own multiple units. Then hire a general manager to run them all so it becomes passive income for you.

$1375 a month in rent and you are responsible for everything but plowing on real estate you have paid $175,000 for. In my area that would be an OK purchase for the real estate but you would never be able to get workers to run the business part of the deal.

I'd never own a Subway, but if I actually wanted to do it, I would not buy the franchise. Buy the building, change the name slightly and keep running it as a sandwich shop without all the franchise expenses and rules.

Taters yes for a few short years. I came this close to buying a franchise. I even had a spot a building on the main drag to put it. YUM Brands was the last owner of the Brand.

Here where these company's like subway and Carvel go wrong. They lock in the owners to only buy there stuff like napkins cups etc and there's nothing to keep them from price gouging.

Carvel, and this is the main reason I didn't do it) sells their birthday cakes a t Publix super market. What do you think the big profit is in ice creme --- its the cakes. So I had a place on the main drag and Publix was only .5 miles away and they sold ice creme cakes. So essentially they screwed their own franchisee people.

I looked at Subway back in 1985 or 86 when they first came to GA. There in strip males-- which are not the cleanest and there not free standing. There slow when they get busy-- which is the exact time people want speed in service.

I'm with Ed on Subway's recent changes. They haven't had good marketing for quite a while. They rolled out this new menu that is basically the old menu with a fresh coat of paint? It just doesn't make sense to me. Also, I feel like they aren't keeping up with current younger crowds at all. Almost every fast food place now has decent vegetarian options -- except for Subway. They've always had a "veggie" sub that is basically lettuce. But no protein option to put on it. At a time when a good number of people are trying to eat vegetarian -- why introduce a whole new lineup of subs WITHOUT a single vegetarian option??

Burger King even has vegetarian options now.

And, heck, don't even start on Taco Bell. Taco Bell absolutely jumped on the vegetarian options and, as said above, there are LINES of cars waiting to buy their stuff.

Taco Bell has went from bad to great in most cases. Subway did the opposite and continues a downward slide even with a "new" menu push...

I also have nothing constructive for this conversation; however, I am always baffled why someone would pay a franchise fee and basically be dictated to by a corporate entity for something like your chicken sandwich.

I live in farm country. Buy ham and turkey from the Amish. Buy fresh lettuce, tomato and onion in the summer. Buy local potato chips. Keep a smaller menu. Open up a mom and pop deli and save hundreds of thousands in costs.

I used to eat Subway all the time. I loved it. It was also a pretty good deal. However, even though it wasn't as unhealthy as other places, I knew the bread was an issue in losing weight which I really needed to do.

I stopped eating Subway to avoid the bread and have been slowly and consistently losing weight for two years. Maybe only a half pound per week but after two years I've lost 50 pounds and it has been a breeze. Of course, I also do a brisk walk every day.

This is no fad with me.

Don't have much to add except, I had invested in a restaurant/sports bar and it went belly up manager had a gambling problem.

I would agree with Larry.

So much of the investment analysis is about the leasee's ability to survive.

When my 55 year old friend was laid off (companies don't hire Boomers) he focused on finding a govt job. He commented "Have you ever heard of a govt worker being laid off?"

Maybe the same with govt leases.

Myob you had Carvel in the south? There are still some in NYC that I visit. Grew up w Carvel by me. I thought dairy queen ruled the rest of the country.

Ray, the Sunway by me is a tiny piece on a corner next to a gas station. There is very little parking, it doesn't look attractive, and I know the owner isn't treating the employees or the business well. Guess my point is, subway is trending in the wrong direction. I would think if you bought the land they would put off retirement. How long a lease would you need to make that work? If the location is good and you are in a summer community then some scout will put it on their list. At the worst you could line up a food truck(s) and make it a summer destination if the brick n mortar fails.

Taters, TODAY I would still drive 50 miles for Carvel. Yes we had a few Carvels open and close abruptly here in Atlanta area.

Taters my Carvel was in Mastic on Montauk highway and the one in Riverhead. They opened one on William Floyd parkway in Shirley after I was hooked on the one in Center Moriches. My HS friends worked at the one in Center Moriches.

The owner of the local subway has a second location in the local Walmart. He wasn't at either store, he is actually on vacation and will not be back until the middle of next week. He is only in his mid 30's but he is a go getter. I feel he knows what he is doing. The 4 of the 6 employees there have been there for at least three years. The manager has been there for 17 years.

So far I am agreeing with most of you. Subway isn't finest dining and restaurant chain is trending downward. How many of you have bought a house that wasn't a class A? I would think all of you. Class A franchise real estate is available. I saw a Chic Filet that was $4,000.000 and the cap rate was under 5%. Ouch. That is a sure fire way to go broke - especially if there is any debt load on that Cap Rate.

Based on what I have heard I will steer away from financing that franchise. Call me bull headed, I would still consider the real estate - especially if I can steer the franchisee of my choice towards that location.

I still don't know if the rent and price of the property makes sense. I eyed up the local subway and the owner was about 70 at the time. He said he wanted 300,000 for the property. When I called him back a second time, he said he wanted 325,000 because there was a new roof on the place. I saw the what he was calling a new roof and thought, why didn't you replace the flat area too.

So I am thinking that sales price at the Ohio location is based on the franchise being for sale. If you can some how stabilize the tenant in the place then things would be better. The lease renews in two year periods with rent bumps outlined until 2032. I am not a fan of that structure. Some people might like that knowledge of knowing what you will have coming in nine years from now. I want to know what the market rents are.

Have a good friend that owns 15+ Subways. He seems to do very well.

I, too, think the no bread thing is somewhat of a fad.

I'd say SUBWAY's gonna' be around awhile.

BINGO JOE!

This is is the type of intel I need.

YUM for example use 3% typically for rent allowance, franchise fee is 3.5% for a single operator and that goes down if you operate multiple units. There is a mark up on the vendor supplies but the COGS (food) - in the case of a chain restaurant is about 28%. This compares to 33-35% of a mom and pop family restaurant.

Am I endorsing the franchise? Nope. What I see is a cheap real estate property with a possible value add opportunity if you can stabilize the business end of equation.

Joe I owe you beer. Are you in Western Pa?