Monthly price survey
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Monthly price survey (by Moshe [CA]) Oct 1, 2022 4:19 PM
       Monthly price survey (by Sisco [MO]) Oct 1, 2022 4:31 PM
       Monthly price survey (by Oregon Woodsmoke [ID]) Oct 1, 2022 5:06 PM
       Monthly price survey (by WMH [NC]) Oct 1, 2022 7:42 PM
       Monthly price survey (by 6x6 [TN]) Oct 1, 2022 8:05 PM
       Monthly price survey (by Dee Ann [WI]) Oct 1, 2022 8:55 PM
       Monthly price survey (by 6x6 [TN]) Oct 1, 2022 10:03 PM
       Monthly price survey (by Robert J [CA]) Oct 1, 2022 11:07 PM
       Monthly price survey (by BRAD 20,000 [IN]) Oct 2, 2022 12:28 AM
       Monthly price survey (by Moshe [CA]) Oct 2, 2022 11:22 AM
       Monthly price survey (by Scott [IN]) Oct 2, 2022 12:32 PM
       Monthly price survey (by Moshe [CA]) Oct 2, 2022 12:32 PM
       Monthly price survey (by Wilma [PA]) Oct 2, 2022 1:54 PM
       Monthly price survey (by MikeA [TX]) Oct 2, 2022 6:54 PM
       Monthly price survey (by plenty [MO]) Oct 2, 2022 7:27 PM
       Monthly price survey (by Moshe [CA]) Oct 2, 2022 7:34 PM
       Monthly price survey (by Ray-N-Pa [PA]) Oct 2, 2022 7:54 PM
       Monthly price survey (by Moshe [CA]) Oct 2, 2022 11:38 PM
       Monthly price survey (by Sisco [MO]) Oct 3, 2022 6:29 AM
       Monthly price survey (by S i d [MO]) Oct 3, 2022 8:17 AM
       Monthly price survey (by Robert,OntarioCanada [ON]) Oct 3, 2022 9:23 AM
       Monthly price survey (by Moshe [CA]) Oct 3, 2022 2:42 PM
       Monthly price survey (by Ray-N-Pa [PA]) Oct 4, 2022 2:54 PM
       Monthly price survey (by Moshe [CA]) Oct 4, 2022 7:47 PM
       Monthly price survey (by Ray-N-Pa [PA]) Oct 5, 2022 8:06 AM
       Monthly price survey (by Moshe [CA]) Oct 5, 2022 12:08 PM
       Monthly price survey (by Ray-N-Pa [PA]) Oct 6, 2022 9:03 PM

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Monthly price survey (by Moshe [CA]) Posted on: Oct 1, 2022 4:19 PM
Message:

I made my monthly price survey today, looking at comparable properties which might compete with mine.

I found a drop in average price of 5.7% .

Also, a substantial drop in number of comparable units available on the market.

--47.139.xx.xxx




Monthly price survey (by Sisco [MO]) Posted on: Oct 1, 2022 4:31 PM
Message:

Tight supply and falling prices are an unlikely combination. What do you make of it? --149.76.xxx.xxx




Monthly price survey (by Oregon Woodsmoke [ID]) Posted on: Oct 1, 2022 5:06 PM
Message:

I think rents have gone down just a smidgen around here. They are still quite high, but the high rent payers are the people moving into the area and maybe the work-from-home is over? Employees on the local economy can't afford the rent prices. --76.178.xxx.xxx




Monthly price survey (by WMH [NC]) Posted on: Oct 1, 2022 7:42 PM
Message:

Hard to tell what's going on here as we are entering the Winter Rental season - so 99% of the rentals listed (which is still only 28 total on CL!) are off-season furnished rentals. Tenants will need to vacate in March or April for the summer season.

We now have thousands of AirBnB/VTBOs on the beach but almost no Annual Rentals. --50.82.xxx.xxx




Monthly price survey (by 6x6 [TN]) Posted on: Oct 1, 2022 8:05 PM
Message:

Rents are high here, however, I think they are stabilizing. Thing is though, we have had a lot of people move here and businesses coming in since the craziness of the last few years. --73.113.xxx.xxx




Monthly price survey (by Dee Ann [WI]) Posted on: Oct 1, 2022 8:55 PM
Message:

What kind of businesses are coming in? Do they have a prayer of doing well in your area in the economy to come, 6X? --75.11.xx.xx




Monthly price survey (by 6x6 [TN]) Posted on: Oct 1, 2022 10:03 PM
Message:

Dee Ann, the biggest ones that I know of are Amazon and, I think Winchester. We have a lot of people come here from all over. --73.113.xxx.xxx




Monthly price survey (by Robert J [CA]) Posted on: Oct 1, 2022 11:07 PM
Message:

Average properties in our area, lower end, went from an asking price between $880,000 to $970,000 to an asking and preying price of $760,000 to $920,000.

This is for a 3+2 with 1400+ sq.' home on a 7000+ lot.

Not the larger stuff.

All because things were over inflated and interest rate were too low. Now that loans start at 5.5% and can even go as high as 6.5%,

prices have to come down.

--47.156.xx.xx




Monthly price survey (by BRAD 20,000 [IN]) Posted on: Oct 2, 2022 12:28 AM
Message:

Moshe,

Good to keep track.

Local rents are going up. Indiana was up 14% over last year.

Last year I rented a nice home for $1250. Just re-rented it for $1465 without pet fees.

Sec8 is increasing.

BRAD --73.103.xxx.xxx




Monthly price survey (by Moshe [CA]) Posted on: Oct 2, 2022 11:22 AM
Message:

Brad,

You say that "Local rents are going up. Indiana was up 14% over last year. "

But my figures are, as of October 1 vs September 1 (2022), and specific to units that are comparable to mine( 2 br, 2 ba, pool, landscaped grounds, rec room, 850 to 950 sq ft, within 1 mile of my property, same schools, parking, etc.

We can see more over the next few montha.

--47.139.xx.xxx




Monthly price survey (by Scott [IN]) Posted on: Oct 2, 2022 12:32 PM
Message:

S-8 is going up a lot in my area. 2023 HUD FMRs went up 12%. Last year they went up 14%. My local Housing Authority just published its own "Payment Standards" which are even higher than the FMRs. --107.141.xx.xxx




Monthly price survey (by Moshe [CA]) Posted on: Oct 2, 2022 12:32 PM
Message:

Sisco,

"Tight supply and falling prices are an unlikely combination. What do you make of it?"

Is it such an unlikely combination?

What about the possibility of poor economy? Tight supply, falling prices and poor economy? What do YOU make of THAT?

I make of it, that falling prices are falling prices, be it groceries, gas or rents. To find orthogonal basis vectors, try tight supply, inflation and interest rates. Maybe there is unexplained variance left over for low consumer confidence.

--47.139.xx.xxx




Monthly price survey (by Wilma [PA]) Posted on: Oct 2, 2022 1:54 PM
Message:

Rents are still up in our area, probably due to tight supply. An acquaintance from my church was so happy to tell me that she found a 1 br apartment, galley kitchen, for "only" $1125, in a Philly suburb. It took her months to find something that she really can't quite afford (she makes around 3000/mo).

Yikes.

--98.115.xxx.xxx




Monthly price survey (by MikeA [TX]) Posted on: Oct 2, 2022 6:54 PM
Message:

One data point could be an anomaly statistically, three contiguous data points in the same direction are statistically significant. This problem is compounded where the sample size is small as you describe in the comparable units. I ran into this earlier in the year when there were virtually no comparable units to establish a market rental basis for a vacant unit. I set the rate based on the small sample set and then realized it was too low when I was inundated with applicants.

Locally and historically, we also have some seasonal fluctuation in price with fall/winter being the low season which picks back up in March. It has been minimized the last couple of years because we have such a shortage of housing because of all the businesses moving their operations to our city. So there are other factors that could also explain short-term variances. --209.205.xxx.xx




Monthly price survey (by plenty [MO]) Posted on: Oct 2, 2022 7:27 PM
Message:

My long term are staying put. I have increased rents. However I have noticed some good applications where the landlord ended the lease with a rent increase, pay or move. So they are moving and paying another landlord but not the previous one, something about the principal I suppose. Where they were paying $900 now with increase is going to $1300 for same house. So they are moving. --172.56.xx.xxx




Monthly price survey (by Moshe [CA]) Posted on: Oct 2, 2022 7:34 PM
Message:

I hope that they are only short-term variances.

--47.139.xx.xxx




Monthly price survey (by Ray-N-Pa [PA]) Posted on: Oct 2, 2022 7:54 PM
Message:

Interesting research. You could reach out to Bruce Norris and ask him his thoughts. He published multiple 100 page plus studies about the SoCal real estate market place, but his research is mostly on affordability and its impact on the SALES market place.

You could be on to something very similar, an affordability index for rental rates. Such research would be huge in a market place that requires so much more creativity to make deals happen. --24.101.xxx.xxx




Monthly price survey (by Moshe [CA]) Posted on: Oct 2, 2022 11:38 PM
Message:

RE: Norris

What has his research shown?

--47.139.xx.xxx




Monthly price survey (by Sisco [MO]) Posted on: Oct 3, 2022 6:29 AM
Message:

Moshe, perhaps many houses are occupied by non paying residents who cannot be evicted and a poor economy has reduced the supply of qualified applicants.

--149.76.xxx.xxx




Monthly price survey (by S i d [MO]) Posted on: Oct 3, 2022 8:17 AM
Message:

Stagflation. Tight inventory keeps prices stable. Inflated but still lower wages keep vacancies longer.

People get used to paying higher prices over time. No one expects to buy a gallon of gas for 25 cents or a dozen eggs for 10 cents any more. Prices went up, stayed up, and folks are used to it now.

Prices in my local market have leveled off. I'm not longer bumping units 10-15% at turnover. Fine by me. The unit I rented for $550 two years ago goes on the market for $700 and rents within 5 days. Works for me. Plenty of willing and able payers.

"My local market" is defined thus: I have weekly Zillow searches that canvass everything within 1/4 mile circumference of my units by bed rooms, bathrooms, square footage, and whether or not it has central heat and air. It has never steered me wrong, which is why my turns are less than a week almost always. --184.4.xx.xx




Monthly price survey (by Robert,OntarioCanada [ON]) Posted on: Oct 3, 2022 9:23 AM
Message:

There a percentage price drop in houses here which varies by location. As a result of finite land along with higher labour and materials costs the cost of new houses and condominiums has gone up. A city or town that has gone through a economic down turn where major industries closed down then that area is efffected. --68.69.xxx.xxx




Monthly price survey (by Moshe [CA]) Posted on: Oct 3, 2022 2:42 PM
Message:

Yes, Robert, but do you see any effect of the US Fed interference in the monetary supply on rental prices?

On what evidence?

That's what we are all holding our breath about. --47.139.xx.xxx




Monthly price survey (by Ray-N-Pa [PA]) Posted on: Oct 4, 2022 2:54 PM
Message:

Bruce will provide between 100-150 charts that will allow you to determine the direction of the real estate market in about 7 counties in the SoCal region.

His research is based on the basis of affordability for the specific county. The reason for the variations? Each market place has its own price point based on the wages and migration even within the SoCal area.

He doesn't do this for just one real estate cycle, he goes back, multiple cycles to show you how the affordability number doesn't shift much at all from cycle to cycle. Even when something crazy like when the aero space industry largely pulled out of SoCal and went to Az, the magic affordability number in San Diego was 18%. As soon as 18% of the population can afford to purchase given the current market conditions.........(and those conditions constantly shift), the momentum is in place for the cycle to shift

--24.101.xxx.xxx




Monthly price survey (by Moshe [CA]) Posted on: Oct 4, 2022 7:47 PM
Message:

So what does his work have to do with the effect of FED interest rate increases on a possible recession in rental market?

--47.139.xx.xxx




Monthly price survey (by Ray-N-Pa [PA]) Posted on: Oct 5, 2022 8:06 AM
Message:

Where there was some correlation to affordability, the real driver was the areas local wages. His research was county specific, so he did say San Bernardino and Imperial Counties where the wages were low locally and then Orange and San Diego.

His research is available at TheNorrisGroup in the series "I survived Real Estate 2022. He has published this every year since 2008

--24.101.xxx.xxx




Monthly price survey (by Moshe [CA]) Posted on: Oct 5, 2022 12:08 PM
Message:

he did say San Bernardino and Imperial Counties where the wages were low locally and then Orange and San Diego.

Did you say, Orange and San Diego counties number 3 and 4 in low wages locally? And that that determines rental rates?

Here in the big city, there are low-wage workers, medium-wage workers and high-priced workers, plus businessmen whose income ranges all over the place. As the song goes regarding all the gold in California, [that] California's a brand new game.

While rents are certainly different in different counties [in CA], both Orange County and San Diego counties have both high concentrations of illegal immigrants, and large concentrations of professionals and very wealthy people. I challenge if average wage in the county is a good determinant of rental rates.

If the question at hand is, has the Federal Reserve board's attempts to attack inflation by drastically raising interest rates had any visible affect on rents. Thats the question I'm watching.

--47.139.xx.xxx




Monthly price survey (by Ray-N-Pa [PA]) Posted on: Oct 6, 2022 9:03 PM
Message:

I was comparing lower income locations with lower price points as compared to other locations with higher price points.

He can show a pattern where people migrate and make the longer commutes and when they retreat back.

Where Bruce's research is on market sales prices, your question is specific to market rents. I am not sure - especially in the SoCal world. Here, most local banks consider ANY Non-Owner Occupied place as a commercial loan and offer 10, 15 or 20 year loans fixed for 3, 5 or 7 years. Since real estate doesn't appreciate as fast here - basically the inflation rate continually, they want these places paid off faster. I am alright with as they still cash flow.

--24.101.xxx.xxx



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