I thought the article linked below might be useful to someone. Though it's mainly about the SFH market and builders it seems useful for rental planning too. The cliff notes are RE may see some pull back, but the supply shortage remains and slowing new starts will exaserbate the imbalance. Inflation will slow in '23 and RE will recover in '24, though not at boom levels.

I pretty much agree with the article. I don't see the doom many pundits are espousing. Yes globally and domestically we face issues of grave concern. But they have historically always resolved, somehow. Not always for the best, but they do resolve, and RE goes up in value.

Meanwhile I think we're going to sit this winter and out and get ready to watch for a deal on sub-dividable land next summer. I've talked about ram earth construction and "earthships" here before. We made multiple trips out to Taos a few years ago to learn the techniques. I've long had an idea (dream?) to build a sustainable community, similar to those near Taos, or at least get it started before I get too old. If we could find the right piece of land I think it might be fun, and be a really cool place to live. Especially now that I know how to drive a Bobcat and excavator! LOL

www.marketwatch.com/picks/im-the-chief-economist-of-the-national-association-of-homebuilders-there-are-the-5-things-you-need-to-know-about-the-housing-market-now-01663778074?siteid=yhoof2

Note-if you encounter a pay wall, just paste the link into a google "incognito" window.

Real estate goes up, real estate goes down. Up and then down, over and over.

@ Steve. Thanks for sharing that. I hadn't seen the video, but I am familiar with Dennis Weaver's former home in Ridgeway, CO. It's near Telluride where we summered a couple of times. These homes don't have to look like hippie communes or "hobbit houses," some can be quite avant guard, which is why I talk about earthship "style," or earth berm type homes.

We've also visited a place called the Avalon Gardens, Eco Village, in Patagonia, AZ, near Tucson. It's kind of a cult (well ok, it "is" a cult, LOL) but I've been enthralled with their sustainability. They are well funded and have been successfully doing their thing for years, started in Sedona. If anyone is interested look up:

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avalongardens.org

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I'm not looking to start a cult or commune (although I am an old hippie at heart - LOL) but I'd like to join the concepts in some manner to provide affordable and sustainable living and a nurturing place for my spouse who will outlive me, and possibly face an uncertain world in the future.

I've been thinking a lot about this as construction costs increase, material availability becomes challenging and utility costs skyrocket. The question I've long asked is, "Why do we build hot boxes out of plywood and gypsum in the desert and then try to cool them with electric air conditioning?"

We've had several big elect outages or AC failures here in the summer. Solar powered AC is not realistic in traditional construction. Other things like property taxes come into play. Which has a higher tax appraisal? A MacMansion that cost $300 sq ft to build or a fancy root cellar built from old tires and glass for $35 sq ft.?

I'm not talking some off grid survivalist outpost, but a sustainable, architectural interesting suburban home, or possibly a sub-division of similar homes on an acre or so each, where like minded people could grow.

Hey LTD, good to "see" you again!

I've been posting some similar thoughts here lately, in particular a recent post on folks waiting on the sidelines with cash. I do not think there is going to be a hard crash in real estate. Quite the opposite. Everything I'm seeing is signs pointing for real estate on a continued upward trend. Here's the list that I've come up with:

1) Demand for housing is still high.

2) Supply is still low: estimates are 10+ years to build enough to meet current demand.

3) Hardly anyone is building starter level homes. So even if luxury homes tank, that shouldn't affect your typical bread and butter (Class B and C) real estate investor.

4) Many buyers are all cash or large cash down payments, which either reduces or totally eliminates the impact of interest rate increases.

5) We are in a high inflation environment, which drives investors to seek traditional safe havens for their funds, such as real estate.

Really "hot" markets may cool briefly before resuming their upward trend, but I don't see us returning to the days of 20-40% price drops like we saw in 2008-2009. If it does happen, I will humbly eat my crow a la mode and buy some killer deals!

My guess is the US market will continue to appreciate around historic levels (3-4% annually) or better for the foreseeable future.

While you are researching, watch a few videos on reforesting the desert, and sustainable farming. ( you probably have) Keep the soil covered year round with something growing, and soil stays alive.

Busy -

Rates are only up to fight inflation, once inflation moderates I expect rates to drop. I don't think we will see 2-3 percent anytime soon but I expect 4,5,6 percent.

Other then higher rates I don't see any real estate head winds.