OT John T Reed I Bonds
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OT John T Reed I Bonds (by JR [ME]) Jan 1, 2022 7:50 PM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by WL [CA]) Jan 1, 2022 8:11 PM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by JR [ME]) Jan 1, 2022 9:23 PM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by Robert J [CA]) Jan 2, 2022 12:04 AM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by Roy [AL]) Jan 2, 2022 6:58 AM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by Roy [AL]) Jan 2, 2022 9:05 AM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by ned [AL]) Jan 2, 2022 9:07 AM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by Roy [AL]) Jan 2, 2022 9:20 AM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by Kevin [FL]) Jan 2, 2022 9:43 AM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by JR [ME]) Jan 2, 2022 10:15 AM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by WL [CA]) Jan 2, 2022 10:40 AM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by Roy [AL]) Jan 2, 2022 10:47 AM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by Roy [AL]) Jan 2, 2022 11:08 AM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by ned [AL]) Jan 2, 2022 11:20 AM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by Kevin [FL]) Jan 2, 2022 11:39 AM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by JR [ME]) Jan 2, 2022 11:40 AM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by JR [ME]) Jan 2, 2022 1:33 PM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by Roy [AL]) Jan 2, 2022 5:05 PM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by JR [ME]) Jan 2, 2022 6:48 PM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by T [IN]) Jan 2, 2022 8:49 PM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by Roy [AL]) Jan 2, 2022 9:10 PM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by Roy [AL]) Jan 2, 2022 9:36 PM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by JR [ME]) Jan 2, 2022 9:44 PM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by ned [AL]) Jan 2, 2022 9:52 PM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by Roy [AL]) Jan 2, 2022 10:05 PM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by JR [ME]) Jan 2, 2022 10:11 PM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by Roy [AL]) Jan 2, 2022 10:51 PM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by PG [SC]) Jan 3, 2022 10:24 AM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by Roy [AL]) Jan 3, 2022 11:27 AM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by WMH [NC]) Jan 4, 2022 4:18 PM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by WMH [NC]) Jan 4, 2022 4:18 PM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by WMH [NC]) Jan 4, 2022 4:18 PM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by Roy [AL]) Jan 4, 2022 9:20 PM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by PG [SC]) Jan 5, 2022 9:11 PM
       OT John T Reed I Bonds (by Pmh [TX]) Jan 9, 2022 1:52 PM

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OT John T Reed I Bonds (by JR [ME]) Posted on: Jan 1, 2022 7:50 PM
Message:

Just read the John T Reed piece on I bonds. Really terrible, IMHO. He blasts I bonds. But other than a warning that hyperinflation would wipe them out, maybe, maybe, if the government chose to to not honor the inflation adjustment of the interest rate. Lots of hyperbole, no reasoned analysis or suggestions for alternative investment.

Also, his advice for no one to ever own bonds shows a shocking disregard for the prospect of stocks, real estate, etc. going down in price at the time when someone, especially a senior too old to work, might need the cash to live.

To quote him, ďI do not recommendĒ the advice in this article.

--98.13.xx.xxx




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by WL [CA]) Posted on: Jan 1, 2022 8:11 PM
Message:

The CPI is manipulated to hide the real inflation rate. Per Shadowstats, using the old inflation measure from the 1980s, the true inflation rate is about 14 to 15 percent a year. The IBonds pay about 7 percent, causing a loss to the bond buyer of 7 percent purchasing power yearly. So John T Reeds argument seems right to me. "Burton Malkiel says I bonds are a great hedge against inflation. Not if the inflation is high."

And the true rate of inflation is manipulated and understated.

John T Reed advises buying a primary residence due to inflation and tax benefits . . . seems to be good advice also. --174.65.x.xxx




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by JR [ME]) Posted on: Jan 1, 2022 9:23 PM
Message:

Even if the true rate of inflation is manipulated and understated, a prudent investor keeps some funds in cash, some in bonds (ideally several years of living expenses) then go to town with more speculative investments; stocks, real estate, investing in businesses, etc. Mr. Reedís article said anyone who invests in bonds at all is a chump. This is very bad advice for most investors with a portfolio large enough to lead a comfortable lifestyle. --98.13.xx.xxx




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by Robert J [CA]) Posted on: Jan 2, 2022 12:04 AM
Message:

I remember my financial planner said I should Cost-Dollar-Average my way into bonds with the proceeds of a sale of an apartment building. So my first managed Bond purchase was a small $50,000. Quickly as inflation took off those bonds dropped 40% in value, then worth around $30K. This happed over 2 to 3 years and took 7 years to recover.

So inflation and bank interest VS Bonds is a serious matter.

While Bond returns over 3% look good, and mostly are tax free,

When Inflation takes off and Bank CD deposits rise over bond rates -- everyone will move out of Bonds and go back into Certificates of Deposit (Short Term) and benefit in higher rates. --47.155.xx.xxx




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by Roy [AL]) Posted on: Jan 2, 2022 6:58 AM
Message:

JR,

The Internet/You Tube does not have any shortage of Guru's. And all guru's have one thing in common,..they are entitled to have their own opinion on any subject they choose to talk about. As you know, John T. Reed is about the only RE guru who has a reputation for evaluating the B.S. other guru's preach.

However, this does not make John T. Reed an expert though, it just means he has an opinion. --71.207.xxx.x




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by Roy [AL]) Posted on: Jan 2, 2022 9:05 AM
Message:

JR,

I have one more comment to make here. Most of my family members (3 brothers and some close friends) who only invest in Blue Chip Stocks and Bonds and earn meager returns (dividends) think I am some sort of a genius for investing in RE that produces 20% or greater returns (instead of dividends, I simply call it Monthly Rent). When I ask these same people if they would like to swap places with me (buy me out) and make the same returns I do,...none of them and I mean none of them will even consider the possibility of swapping places with me.

Why is this? These are college educated people here and some even have advance business degrees like MBA / Ph.D and they all whine about how crappy their stock portfolio returns are. I got an earful at the last Christmas party I attended.

--71.207.xxx.x




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by ned [AL]) Posted on: Jan 2, 2022 9:07 AM
Message:

Been reading John T Reed for years. Super intelligent, analytical writing. Have learned a ton from his books. You get the feeling though, from reading his posts, etc... he has got to be the most arrogant, hard to be around guy in the world. Still love reading him, though. --70.92.xx.xx




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by Roy [AL]) Posted on: Jan 2, 2022 9:20 AM
Message:

Ned,

I enjoy reading John T. Reed too, even after his trashing the names of some of the RE guru's that I still admire. Again though, he is entitled to his own opinions. --71.207.xxx.x




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by Kevin [FL]) Posted on: Jan 2, 2022 9:43 AM
Message:

I did look up John Reed and his ideas, I just need someplace secure to park extra cash and this looks like it will work for me. I have enough in the stock market that I consider higher risk but as I am getting closer to 70 and have been doing this for over forty years I am happy with the high returns on paid off rentals. If I find a bargain I would buy it but in this market nothing will cash flow.

--47.205.xxx.x




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by JR [ME]) Posted on: Jan 2, 2022 10:15 AM
Message:

Roy, happy new year to you.

I donít know why your relatives were crabbing about meager returns recently.

Stocks, for example the S and P 500 returned 26% last year and have averaged more than 11% over the past 100 years.

Bonds, for example intermediate term government bonds, returned minus 2% last year and have averaged 5% per year over the last 100 years. But (and this was the reason for my starting this post) the purpose of bonds in a portfolio is not to provide great returns, but to stabilize a portfolio, particularly for those who do not have earned income and need to draw from the nest egg to live on. This is a critical factor for many investors and totally blown off in the John T Reed piece. (I agree he is a great read in general)

Real estate, for small time investors like many on this board, is a combination of investment and job. A 20% return is great, but have you ever taken the time to divide your annual net profits from your real estate divided by the # of hours you spent managing and working on them last year? The figure might surprise you, positively or negatively.

Happy new year to all, and happy landlording, investing, and living. --98.13.xx.xxx




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by WL [CA]) Posted on: Jan 2, 2022 10:40 AM
Message:

The myth of cash flow in rental property in the 21st century

John T Reed.

For decades now I have watched wannabe real estate investors and beginner real estate investors say their goal was to accumulate enough properties that they could live off the cash flow from them . . . The rate of return on a free-and-clear rental property is the rent - operating expenses = net operating income/the value of the property. This is the key problem in understanding this matter. The operating-expense ratio of residential rental property is 38% to 43%. There are about five or ten sources you can use to confirm that.

The bane of beginning investors is that there are literally tens of millions of liars who are claiming they have positive cash flow. There are also sellers and agents who lie about the operating expenses you will have if you buy a property they are trying to sell you . . .At that return rate, to earn $50,000 a year, you need to own $50,000 ų .249% = $2,008,032 worth of free-and-clear rental property. --174.65.x.xxx




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by Roy [AL]) Posted on: Jan 2, 2022 10:47 AM
Message:

'Stocks, for example the S and P 500 returned 26% last year'

JR, tell me if I am wrong, but is that 26% S&P gain only realized if you sell the stock? Now if the stock market crashes on Monday, doesn't that 26% gain just evaporate? When the stock market crashed in 2008, my rents did not crash and go south like stocks did. I actually had some of my best years after the 2008 crash.

I am referring to returns that are realized without having to sell the house (or stock) that produces them. With stocks, they are called Dividends and with RE it is called Rent or Cash Flow. Most blue chip stocks pay meager quarterly dividends, sometimes no better than what a bank pays. And some stocks pay no dividends at all!

I will answer your 2nd question but a little later. Lets make sure we are on the same page here.

--71.207.xxx.x




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by Roy [AL]) Posted on: Jan 2, 2022 11:08 AM
Message:

WL,

I would LOVE to meet John T. Reed in person and compare notes with him. I could prove to him that HIS MYTH of cash flow in rental property is not a myth but real. Now, John T. Reed maybe referring to all of the newbie wannabe RE investors in the world who have more money than brains (especially now) and if that is the case, then HIS MYTH could have some validity. --71.207.xxx.x




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by ned [AL]) Posted on: Jan 2, 2022 11:20 AM
Message:

Roy, I have seen John T. admit his lack of experience in very low end properties. (which you and I both know offer the greatest cash flow) --70.92.xx.xx




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by Kevin [FL]) Posted on: Jan 2, 2022 11:39 AM
Message:

John reed sounds like a Jim Crammer stock salesman, (The operating-expense ratio of residential rental property is 38% to 43%.). Is this with a mortgage?

Mine are paid and average 10-24% before any write offs and they give me something to do when I don't want to fish or go flying.

Please tell me what investment that cost 85K can generate noi $8,500 and when I am tired of this I can sell it for $ 150K today? --47.205.xxx.x




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by JR [ME]) Posted on: Jan 2, 2022 11:40 AM
Message:

Roy, you are correct that current dividends are ďmeagerĒ. The same S and P 500 mix of stocks yielded 1.21% last year, and has averaged less than 2% for the last 20 years (although more than 4% over the last 100 years).

You are correct that the stock market in general tends to be more volatile than real estate, and that 26% could be wiped out quickly. In general, when stock valuations go down, like when real estate values go down, the dividend rate goes up if the business profits or rents keep up, hence the historical 4% dividend rate. The volatility of stocks creates the need for bonds (or real estate, or other alternative investments) to prevent the need to sell when the market is down.

I challenge you to to rethink your premise in the second paragraph that you are referring to returns that are realized without having to sell the underlying asset. Why? I bet what you are really looking for is spendable cash flow. You know, spending cash, moola, dinero. When you own a SFH or a small multi-unit, you have limited options when selling. That is, you pretty much need to sell it outright, forgoing all future income from the property. To boot, sales commissions, fix-up cost, legal fees, etc. can eat up more than 10% of the sale price. (Letís ignore capital gains taxes for now). Furthermore, it can take months to actually sell and you receive your money.

Conversely, you can sell all OR PART of your stock holdings easily, almost instantly, and with almost no transaction costs. If you need, say $50,000 to live on in a given year, you can sell $50,000 worth of stocks and still keep the rest that will continue to (hopefully) appreciate and pay those meager dividends.

Letís work through an example. Roy has $500,000 in a S and P mutual fund at the beginning of 2021. At the beginning of 2022, his fund is worth $630,000. He needs 50,000 from this pot to live on in 2022. So he sells $50,000 of the fund and then has $580,000 left to keep earning. 2022 was an unusual year, but even in an ďaverageĒ year, that $500,000 would increase to $555,000, and after the $50,000 withdrawal have $505,000 to start off the new year.

Jay has $500,000 in real estate in your town in the beginning of 2021, owned free and clear. How much gross and net income from that property(ies) would he have at the beginning of 2022 to live on?

--98.13.xx.xxx




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by JR [ME]) Posted on: Jan 2, 2022 1:33 PM
Message:

And for bonus points, honestly, how many hours per year were spent by the owner on the rental(s) to generate that income?

--98.13.xx.xxx




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by Roy [AL]) Posted on: Jan 2, 2022 5:05 PM
Message:

JR,

I do like the stock market for 1 reason which you mentioned.

The liquidity. It is the easiest of all markets to 'get into' and 'get out of' quickly. I wish that RE could be this way.

My 2nd paragraph - Of course I am referring to spendable cash flow!!! If my properties only broke even each month and did not produce any real spendable cash flow, then I would need a day job like everyone else who works 60-70 hours a week 'for the man'. In my situation, I AM THE MAN and I pay others to do whatever I need done. I can only do this because I have spendable cash flow that comes directly from rents only. And for these reasons, I can't understand why not one of my stock market investor friends do not want to swap places with me. If they did, they could quit their corporate day job, do what I do and have a great stress free life. Instead they just want to whine about what a PITA it is working for the man 60 hours a week.

JR - I have gotten off on a tangent here. Have I answered your question? I agree with most of what you said, but I need cash returns NOW and not 20 years from now. I want to live my life NOW and not to have wait until SS kicks in. --71.207.xxx.x




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by JR [ME]) Posted on: Jan 2, 2022 6:48 PM
Message:

Roy, I see what you are saying, you want the cash flow now. That is one of the great things about RE investing is you can borrow a big chunk of the cash needed to buy the investment, which you canít (margin accounts aside) for other investments. The ability to use leverage and OPM is probably (sorry, Sid) the single biggest advantage to RE investing, IMHO.

You actually didnít answer my questions.

1. In your area, if you owned $500,000 in real estate, say in SFHs, how much gross and net income would that generate in a year?

2. How much time would you spend on those rentals in a year?

--98.13.xx.xxx




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by T [IN]) Posted on: Jan 2, 2022 8:49 PM
Message:

For the rest of this decade... no bonds! Inflation will kill you.

My parents grow their RE holdings to the point my works like 2 hrs a YEAR... clears 70k for herself. Pays me to deal with the Bull... she will never have to sell an asset to fund her retirement. The same can't be said for people with 401k or just stocks. --76.77.xxx.xxx




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by Roy [AL]) Posted on: Jan 2, 2022 9:10 PM
Message:

JR,

Your Question #1: Since no 2 SFH rental houses of mine are exactly the same in profitability, I can only give an overall 'close estimate'. All of them do earn a min. 20% of my gross. Some houses earn 25% and 30% of gross but I will use 20% as my base number to keep the math simple.

500,000 x 20% = $100,000 (Gross)

$100,000 minus 25% (prop. taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy allow and no mortgages) = $75,000 (Net)

My Net here assumes all houses are bought at wholesale, they receive above average rehabs, get above market rents, have good tenants and every facet of my business is treated as a 'business' and not as a 'part-time hobby'.

Your question #2: How much time do I spend on the rentals? In the first 10 years of building my portfolio, I spent 60-70 hours a week in 'building the empire'. Now that the empire is built to comfortable level, I only spend about 10-20 hours a week in managing the business. I actually have more time on my hands now than I would prefer which is why I am still looking to expand more and buy another 5 houses. --71.207.xxx.x




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by Roy [AL]) Posted on: Jan 2, 2022 9:36 PM
Message:

JR,

One thing that makes me Unique among my local M & P LL competition is that I actually ENJOY being a landlord and the entire business of buying houses, rehabbing them, renting them out and occasionally selling one or two of them when the RE market is on fire! (I sold 2 houses in 2020 but none in 2021). Just like your example of selling $50K in stocks,...I can do the same thing by selling 1 house. I currently have 15 houses but again, I would like to pick up a few more. --71.207.xxx.x




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by JR [ME]) Posted on: Jan 2, 2022 9:44 PM
Message:

Thanks for the info. Roy. Looks like there are many ways to success. --98.13.xx.xxx




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by ned [AL]) Posted on: Jan 2, 2022 9:52 PM
Message:

Roy's expenses sound low to me. Maybe they don't include deferred maintenance?

(I like to systematically set aside $ each month per unit to offset big ticket items like new HVAC, new roof, major remodel.)

$500,000 in 2BR, 1BA single family here would get me 12.5 $40k houses that would bring in average of $625/mo each - $7500 year ea... or $93,750. I would expect to spend $46,875 of that on Taxes, insurance, 5% vacancy, short term repairs, and allowance for deferred maintenance. That would leave me $46,875 if no mortgages.

On these 12.5 houses, I would expect to spend about 12.5 hrs / mo. managing. --70.92.xx.xx




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by Roy [AL]) Posted on: Jan 2, 2022 10:05 PM
Message:

Ned,

My maintenance expenses are lower because it costs less money to maintain a small 2/1 house in a C hood compared to a larger 4/2/2 in an A or B hood. I do put aside 5% of my rents for the big ticket items you mentioned. Any other questions before I call it a night? --71.207.xxx.x




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by JR [ME]) Posted on: Jan 2, 2022 10:11 PM
Message:

Thanks, Ned. And Roy, to get back to your earlier question, why donít your relatives want to invest in RE the way that you do? I might guess that there are several reasons. One, they work hard as you say in their day jobs, and they donít want to add ten or twenty extra hours on to their work week. Second, they have no spare capital to invest into the properties. Third, they are intimidated by the unknowns of running a successful rental business and they donít want the stress, conflict, and hassle of being a landlord. So thatís why they whine about their day jobs but donít join you. Did I miss any reasons? --98.13.xx.xxx




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by Roy [AL]) Posted on: Jan 2, 2022 10:51 PM
Message:

JR,

I know the 'real reasons' they do not want to quit their day jobs and swap places with me. Here goes.

They all have corporate 6-figure day jobs that have perks that keep them addicted to their job. Here goes:

1. Free company car with an expense account.

2. 401K's where their employer matches their contribution dollar for dollar.

3. Stock options

4. Paid vacations, paid maternity leave, paid sick leave

5. Employer paid or subsidized family health insurance premiums.

On top of all that, they have the nerve to complain they are not being paid enough because $175K is not what is use to be. My older brother once said and I quote "I can't see how anyone these days can live on anything less than $150,000/year".

So, th

--71.207.xxx.x




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by PG [SC]) Posted on: Jan 3, 2022 10:24 AM
Message:

Roy - I know the 150K guys - the standard is new cars - the biggest houses - best clothes and the list goes on and on absolutely NO effort to find the best VALUE when making a purchase. Those type people never get enough.

I am Retired with all of the benefits. I never complained about my W2 job in fact I enjoyed it for the most part. I saved at least 10% of my salary for 31 years resulting in a substantial IRA that I am not sure what I will do with. Rentals and the Farm was just a part time. AND I enjoy those also. Rentals does give me an insight as to how a large part of society actually lives and thinks. It helps me with my - Street Smarts. Most of the corporate guys will never have that opportunity.

JR - In response to your - Did I miss any reasons? YES Threat of a LAYOFF - Something that will never cross ROY'S mind.

Good comments on the Market and RE

--184.20.xxx.xx




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by Roy [AL]) Posted on: Jan 3, 2022 11:27 AM
Message:

JR & PG,

When PG said he is 'retired with all the benefits',...oh boy that struck a nerve inside me.

I now need to confess something which is the #1 reason that I am a Landlord with 15 houses AND why I have no choice but to be successful at it. It all revolves around 'retirement benefits' and/or 'how do I retire at age 65 and not have to depend on a monthly social security check as my only retirement income'. If I had not started planning (16 years ago) for my own retirement, I could have easily ended up with only SS income to support me in retirement. I would probably be on food stamps too like millions of retired Americans are on now.

So, 16 years ago (2006) I made a conscious decision to become a rental property owner/LL. Everything I did then and now revolves around 2 things,..how I do support myself in the present AND how do I plan for retirement at the same time! And most important,...FAILURE IS NOT AN OPTION here. In 2006, I had $150K in cash and an excellent credit rating to be begin with. I could invest that in the stock market or I could buy cheap rental houses. Of course, I chose the later. The rest is history. I am now 63 and I am in a financial position to where I could donate my future SS check to charity.

--71.207.xxx.x




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by WMH [NC]) Posted on: Jan 4, 2022 4:18 PM
Message:

Roy, I hear you.

But as for the SS check: save it to hire someone to help you in your old age. So you can teach them how to be successful! --50.82.xxx.xxx




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by WMH [NC]) Posted on: Jan 4, 2022 4:18 PM
Message:

Roy, I hear you.

But as for the SS check: save it to hire someone to help you in your old age. So you can teach them how to be successful! --50.82.xxx.xxx




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by WMH [NC]) Posted on: Jan 4, 2022 4:18 PM
Message:

Roy, I hear you.

But as for the SS check: save it to hire someone to help you in your old age. So you can teach them how to be successful! --50.82.xxx.xxx




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by Roy [AL]) Posted on: Jan 4, 2022 9:20 PM
Message:

'But as for the SS check: save it to hire someone to help you in your old age'

WMH - I have been looking for that special person for the last 15 years! I need someone who I can trust and who wants to swap places with me. I will train them and hold their hand for 6 months. --71.207.xxx.x




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by PG [SC]) Posted on: Jan 5, 2022 9:11 PM
Message:

ROY - Please provide some detail on - struck a nerve. Maybe I took it the wrong way.

I have 7 figures in the market - Rentals and Timber/Farmland.

I have multiple sources of in come in Retirement. And most or Passive income.

From my 40 years of investing - NO Investment over the long term beats as you stated.

2. 401K's where their employer matches their contribution dollar for dollar.

--184.20.xxx.xx




OT John T Reed I Bonds (by Pmh [TX]) Posted on: Jan 9, 2022 1:52 PM
Message:

we have bought rental houses for supplemental income to our w2 jobs. the cash flow was invested in mutual funds & some stock wingers. bought all I could when mkt crashed to 7k. I will be retiring in 3 years at 62. will keep the rentals for fun & to have something to manage. otherwise wife will give me lists of things to do while she is at work. 10 years for her b4 she can take retirement benefits at 62. how to get rich in LL business: buy low. have a spouse with w2 job who is younger than you. lol. --107.77.xxx.xxx



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