Any land lords out there concerned with high/hyperinflation affecting your personally and/or your business? What steps are you taking to protect yourself and possibly profit from these scenarios if they occur?

We keep a ready stockpile of food, water, and day to day sundry items. The goal would be to avoid the rushes on the stores and empty shelves, which we all saw last year about this time. Not knowing how long a high inflation scenario could last, we're pretty well-stocked, hopefully enough.

Of course if / when we get this, many of our tenants' lives which are already financially unstable will go into a tail spin, and I would expect that we'd have to completely change our business models since we would not want to receive rent in a form that would be dropping in value daily. Too, our costs for maintenance and insurance would be spiral out of control, and we might not be able to get the supplies we need for basic "tread water" kind of things like patching a leaky roof. I stock a few extra window AC unit in my garage, but that won't work forever or for very many units.

The two bright spots I see if we do get high/hyperinflation: dollars will quickly become worthless (not just "worth less") because there will be trillions flowing out. That's bad if you HAVE dollars, but awesome if you OWE dollars. You could quickly, easily, and cheaply eliminate any debt that is owed in USDs as rents inflate 20% per month or more. I wonder, though, if there wouldn't be some form of claw back provision after it's all over to protect lenders from losses?

A risk mitigation strategy might be going M2M so rents can be raise each month. I'm thinking that I need to also amend my lease where if the CPI spikes more than X%, we can increase the rent even if we're in an annual lease. Not sure how well that would fly in court, but worth considering as a strategy.

Sid,

I'm thinking there will be a problem if things go to high inflation. Lower wage workers (most of the ones in my class C units) are not going to see their wages increase anywhere near that level. So even if rents go up 10 percent a month, much less 20 percent, they will not be able to pay. Especially if everything else is going up like that.

I've decided to sell out and move my stuff into things that become more valuable with inflation. Forests and farmland are things I'm considering. NO TENANTS! Maybe RV parking areas.

Sid, I am glad that you asked this question as I need to learn this myself.

I would have a hard time stock pilling because I do not have the room for a lot of that nor the buildings however, I usually do buy things in advance. As I run out in my home then I resupply from my stock and then I replenish the stock.

One thing to keep in mind though is that everything has a shelf life. So, whatever you are stock piling be sure to date it, rotate it and know the shelf life.

One advantage that you have is having the storage units. Are you using any of these for your stockpiling?

I just raised mu rent on my vacancy by $275 to see what happens.

Richard - I know you're a smart man so you know to do your homework. I've seen you say before about forests and farmland. As someone who owns both (personally not as a business investment) it's not just stick some trees in the dirt and harvest them 20 years later. There is significant work, maintenance, crystal ball looking/planning required for farming and forestry and both are SIGNIFICANTLY regulated by the government - federal, state and local municipality.

Historically, real estate has been one of the very best hedges against inflation. But that was before all the progressive government interfering with private property rights. So, right now, a little caution isn't amiss.

Because I've always lived several miles out of town, I have always bought in bulk, so I don't have to drive into town multiple times a week. Buying in bulk also saves me a lot of money. I get serious mileage out of my grocery budget.

Really, the only thing I'm doing different is preparing to pay off my last loan when the adjustable rate period arrives. I hadn't been worried about it because it is at such a low interest rate I could make money by keeping it. I doubt that will be the case in the near future. I believe ARM's were the biggest cause of landlord failure in the 1980's.

I do have to disagree with your assertion that you don't want to get rent in cash. My dad was able to buy some great deals at crazy cheap prices in the early 80's because he had cash rolling in from rentals. Inflation and interest go hand-in hand, high interest makes it hard for those that need to sell to find a cash buyer creating lots of opportunities for those with cash in hand. I remember as a High School kid considering investing my life savings in a rent house my dad suggested I buy in my little home town in MO, he was telling me I could double my money in 2 year VS a 6 month CD paying right at 20%. Fortunately, I took his advise and in-fact doubled my money. The CD rate dropped to 9% 6 month later.

Roy, ol' buddy. This is not gloom and doom. This is a reaction to current situations readily observable. We are ALREADY seeing strong upward prices on many goods and services. Yesterday many on here were talking about rents going up, inventory flat or non-existent, etc. And that's just in real estate!

Our Govt has a ridiculous amount of debt at present. Presently, 15% of all tax revenue is used to pay interest only. At the rate we are going, soon 20% of all tax revenues collected will be used just to pay interest on the debt, leaving less for the many other obligations the Fed Govt has promised.

There's no harm in preparing. The worst case is you buy a bunch of stuff today that has a long shelf-life that you will use tomorrow. No loss. If you don't prepare...well...remember the great TP shortage of 2020. *Grins

6x6, Right, you stockpile what you can. I'm not using the storage facility. Our house has plenty of space, so no reason to put it elsewhere. I'm staying away from Cryptos. Too volatile and too emotion driven. Who knows what would happen to them if the markets go crazy? They provide no real world utility other than money transfers, so if the world goes haywire people might start dumping them to buy food and supplies, which would cause the value to plummet. Houses provide real world value, so their value will increase.

Richard's idea of farm land and forests is intriguing. As timber and food prices increase, those should at least hold steady if not go up.

Sid, I tend to keep my units in tip-top shape at turnover and handle things asap when they arise. I try to live "prepped" for when the masses decide that toilet paper is the golden ticket to heaven again. I shop when others stay home and stay home when others panic shop! :) haha.

I try to make money when I can. I wish I bought pallets of OSB a few years ago today. I wish I was in the plexiglass business as well. I am seeing nothing in the real estate business that is worth getting in the car to go look at as an investment right now. That has me considering listing existing properties for sale.

Sid, I was interested in what would happen with real estate during a time of hyper inflation. I did find a book that discussed the hyper inflation period in Germany that helped bring Hitler into power.

In the book, it was mentioned that landlords used the inflated money to pay off their debts. However, when the economy was finally brought back to normal, those debts that the landlords paid off a few years before were actually reinstated again under the new money system.

What I learned from the book was that during that time the German government outlawed the use of foreign money (gold and silver), however, the people would use that currency to buy their goods (food, etc.) because the store owners didn't really want cash since it was going down in value daily or even hourly. As a result, I think it is beneficial to keep some old silver coins (1964 and older) where the known silver content is 90% and can easily be traded for food and other necessities of life.

I was a young buck when interest rates were sky high......

I wasn't smart enough to make my money learning how to warp money back then. I am wiser and setting myself up for such another opportunity as I believe I will only get one more bite at that apple in my life time.

Locking in longer term loans now and placing properties into trust are great baby steps in hedging your bets. I surprised the bank when I ask for a larger loan and requested the term be locked in for 10 years.

The last spike didn't last 10 years and so much can be done to control it, but we are currently not doing it - so rates will be headed upward.

I was a young buck when interest rates were sky high......

I wasn't smart enough to make my money learning how to warp money back then. I am wiser and setting myself up for such another opportunity as I believe I will only get one more bite at that apple in my life time.

Locking in longer term loans now and placing properties into trust are great baby steps in hedging your bets. I surprised the bank when I ask for a larger loan and requested the term be locked in for 10 years.

The last spike didn't last 10 years and so much can be done to control it, but we are currently not doing it - so rates will be headed upward.

I not sure if we will get hyperinflation. It might take limber prices a year to come down. Texas's ice storm will be another factor in shortages and increases prices in raw materials and goods. While in Sherwin Williams the other day to return a gallon of Property Solution white paint and the manager ask me if I would like to keep it instead of returning it, they won't be carry that product because of the plants needing to get running again in Texas. SW, is having to figure out what products they will keep and what products they will not keep at this time but maybe return in the future once operations are up and running in full capacity.

My only plan now is to reduce debt and keep buying hard assets, and quality companies listed on the NYSE.

Sid, I'm very glad that you asked this question. It has been on my mind since the Fed started the helicopter money (handing out cash to everyone). About a decade ago when they did QE1, QE2, etc the inflation was not that bad because all the money went to Wall street; stock market and big banks. This time it's different. The stimulus programs really channeled the money to Main street; small businesses and individuals. The high inflation period is coming. It's not only in the US. I run an import business and I can tell you that the costs of everything is going up; from products to freight to warehouses. Everything! I'm raising the prices of the products and so do my competitors.

I agree with Richard[MI] that being in a landlord business during high inflation is not a good idea. We won't be able to raise rent but the maintenance cost, insurance, taxes will skyrocketing. Therefore I'm selling most of my rentals. For a few that I plan to keep, I'm doing a refi cash out to pull all equity out. Like others said, debts would be much easier to satisfy during the high/hyper inflation.

Sid,

My best years in this business was between 2008 and 2014 during the last major RE crash. During this time, I was buying houses dirt cheap one right after another. Now, if the hyper-inflation you are referring to creates another recession, well that is fine with me since I will be out shopping for more bargains.

RV parks seem like a good idea actually...Covid created a lot of RV enthusiasts. You can work from anywhere which is appealing to many. Van Life is a thing for the poor and affluent now. If things go south, presumably many more will be living this lifestyle, perhaps not by choice.

Sid, are you stocked up for 6 mos, 12 mos, longer? I wouldn’t know where to begin stockpiling food. If you have tips, share when you have time and are inclined to do so.

For water, do you have barrels or just case upon case of bottled water?

I thought we were in for significant inflation during the QEs, but it never happened. If what I learned in my Econ 101 class is still true, inflation HAS to happen.

I've contemplated MTM leases and may go to that as a protection against rampant inflation, although I have to say that I've really liked having ELTs in my leases. We're also diversified into a couple of short-term furnished rentals. The private lending means our funds are never tied up for too long. We're keeping the mortgage on our personal residence.

As far as stockpiling goes, I feel like the best thing to stockpile is knowledge. If you know how to garden, keep bees, sew, cook from scratch, and fix things, those could be helpful things to barter that can't be taken at gunpoint.

I agree with the other ones saying not to stockpile food etc. I can tell you from living in a hurricane area that you end up with a lot of stuff that doesn't get used because it turns out to be a false alarm.

I don't think there will be hyperinflation but there may be regular inflation.

I am doing what Dave[MO] is doing. I bought a lot of shares of Exxon Mobil which should start doing well once the pandemic winds down and people travel more (unless B tries to kill it with some Green policies), and inflation can help oil prices move up too. It is a bit of a gamble but I'm not too concerned about it.

J, there's nothing wrong with storing food and other supplies, one snow storm will wipe out a grocery store in a day. Imagine major civil unrest. Imagine strategically blocked highways limiting tractor trailer deliveries. Imagine riots burning down grocery stores. It like an insurance policy. Keep it in a rotation. When you go shopping, put the new stuff behind the older stuff. We have a room the kids call "the store". Lots of supplies and we're always adding to it.

NE

when you live alone, stock piling food doesn't make sense. I buy staples and give 1/2 of it away because it doesn't get used before it goes bad. Even something as simple as cooking oil - I only use it to make a boxed cake or brownies. I buy the smallest bottle there is and still need to give 1/2 of it away before it starts to turn. I can't use a bottle of catsup, even with grandkids in and out constantly.

You guys need to research 1970-73. Double digit inflation. Don't hold on to cash, purchasing power erodes. Use inflated dollars to pay down debts. Invest in RE, commodity, stocks. No interest lock bonds, us greenback.

As Nicol and 6X6 said, stockpiling is not going to work for a lot of people. If someone is in a small place they can't stockpile unless they rent a storage unit or build an outdoor shed.

And if you stockpile food and ammo, OK, but what about gasoline, paint and supplies for your units, and a million other things that you buy? All of these would go up in an inflation scenario.

Well as for the TP shortage, I highly recommend the new cheap bidet seats that are everywhere now for $39, install in 5 minutes and work like a charm. No more TP shortages for us! Extra clean bums too. I bought one for everyone for Christmas, and we have them installed here, and I added one in my son's guest bath (the one we use LOL!)

You have to learn to work with them, but once you do you will wonder how you lived without them.

W,

Haha! What a heart warming gift:) I can see it now, the children opening the gift wrap and exclaiming "Oh I always wanted this! Thank you Santa!"

Best to also include a Squatty Potty.

Seriously, I DO appreciate the idea of a paperless toilet (just like a paperless office:)

Middle Eastern people think we American are nuts for smearing ourselves with dry paper.

Ok, I'll see myself out.

BRAD

Not Doom and Gloom but rather talking shop. We could have the same conversation riding around in a golf cart or in my case, walking through the woods looking for the tennis balls I used to show off my Super Serve.

I've learned to eat less. This I had to practice but the process showed me how much food is or is not needed.

Sid mentioned Money Transfers, this is what I believe everyone should focus on.

In the 1930s people in the next town over didn't know what was taking place due to lack of communication.

You have the polar opposite happening now.

Good news in the form of relief will travel fast. As inflation rolls in, there will be loads of available discussion, too much negative news about the problems (NE having bought and stock piled away all the TP)

However...the solutions will jump from cell phone to cell phone all around the world.

We are likely to correct and adjust to a safer economy far more rapidly than history has ever recorded.

*Money Transfers. This is a whole different topic but this is the way our customers think and more importantly act. They don't reconcile bank statements, ....they simply press a button and send " Is this still available?".

Ethereum will be embraced.

pmh, prepare or don't. It's up to you. Might reconsider your logic though. You're saying, "Because X hasn't happened yet, therefore X won't happen." Ask Alpine skiers who have survived avalanches about that.

We take reasonable steps to protect ourselves. Stockpiling supplies we will use anyway has zero risk when they have shelf lives of 10+ years. As NE said, you just rotate stock. I lose no money buying supplies today that I will use tomorrow. I'm not a "prepper"; I'm a Boy Scout, thus I am prepared.

Besides, one of the driving topics of this post was "How do we profit?" I think that's always worth discussing, even if you don't think high inflation is coming. The fact is there's a lot of money sloshing around these days, but there's a lot more in bank coffers. If that ever comes out (or if it doesn't)....the question is how do we take advantage of this situation?