Hi

Just wondering where people think the stock market is going. I had no money in it but put a bunch in back in May.

I am not investing in real estate at the moment. I have enough.

I am scared of the stock market however I am up about 35% in just a few months. It seems surreal.

It seems like there is pent up demand in certain industries like travel and some of those stocks are still about half of what they were a year ago. When we are covid free again I think the economy could soar for awhile. What does everyone else think?

I don't do the market. I am a control freak and don't like others making decisions about MY MONEY.

Whats going on-- it's gonna crash cause there's absolutely no reason it should be this high.

Don't fight the Fed.

Although I did just move 20% of my 401k out of stocks.

There was 2 trillion in cash that had to go somewhere. Much of that 2 trillion was targeted for the under served initially.

How long do you think it was going to take before it would shift into the hands that are more well off?

I read somewhere that if you have money in your wallet/purse, if you have money in a jug/nut bowl or just laying around the house being non productive and you had money in a savings account - you would be only about 50% of the US population that could say yes to all three.

Investing in market requires to go beyond that 50% and have faith in someone's judgement. You might be towards the end of where the economy gets juiced by that 2 Trillion. Will the government again to try to help out though less fortunate? I hope so as there is more suffering going on - but at this point, everyone has been impacted in some manner by COVID and the reactions to it.

So as strange as it might sound, this might be some fall out of the current environment of social and economic justice. I am not a heavy player in the market, and I have reallocated in to less risk adverse plays like consumables.

My thought process is when another round of stimulus occurs, that the population learns that future rounds will be limited and maybe it would be wise to buy more stuff for the pantry for the long haul.

Who am I kidding - there is a 96 inch TV that everyone has to have to replace last years 84 inch. Iphone 75 will also come out too about the same with a price tag of one arm.

If your up over 35% take some profits off the table. :)

Over time, the stock market as a whole goes up. Like 2 years out of three. Over the past 100 years, the S and P 500 has returned an average of about 10%. People who say it is “risky” generally, and I mean this with respect, don’t really know what they are talking about. They are either citing examples of single stocks or relatively short time periods.

Think about it for a minute, with a cold, detached viewpoint. Which is riskier, buying, for almost no fee, a piece of the 500 largest and most successful companies, run by all those bright minds and insiders MYOB rants about, or your single rental property, run by you? Even if you have quite a few, a regional downturn, loss of a major employer, banks tightening up credit, or say, a pandemic and moratorium for your customers having to pay you could spell curtains. Look at the angst of Triplexer or the lady from Detroit that used to post on here. Concentrating almost all their life savings in one investment or region carries risk that few of us want to admit.

Brad and SId often tout reducing risk by paying down debt. True, lees debt means more safety, but the largest single advantage that investing in real estate over other investments is the ability to use leverage aka debt, to multiply income. Without it, RE investing rates stack up not that well against equities (stocks)

This advice is worth what you are paying for it, but for most, diversification into cash, bonds, stocks, real estate, and if you want to be daring, try adding a bit of gold and commodities to your holdings.

I agree with Jim OC

Recently read where we still have close to 5K unaccompanied illegal children coming across every month. That are allowed to enter and sent to relatives already in the US. Think we can expect the numbers to go up 10X.

Dont see how we take care of these along with. Giving them stimulus checks, give everyone free college, healthcare , housing etc...

Just dont see it working out.

Pmh, I will read JR's post again.

When I put some money into S&P 500 I was sneered at so thank you for the review, JR (ME).

Because of the pandemic and lockdowns people could start being foreclosed on Jan 31.

House of Rep is holding back on the next financial boost because NP is "waiting for the next President". I was "told" by someone I could not see, that THIS president will also be the next President, so I have to keep on believing.

I did not "see" the pandemic. I was just told that there were "too many Chinese" and "something was going to happen". The banks should make some kind of payment deal with homeowners or they will get a bunch of houses back which is what crashed the economy back in 2008 after NP gave 200K mortgages to people with poor credit.

A lot of people who make a lot of money are working virtualy and getting paid. So many live Christmas trees sold this year that the tree farms are running out. From 50 dollars up that is a good economic indicator.

One thing that I remember hearing about in 2008 was how a lot of people that were getting ready to retire lost everything. I am assuming that the majority of this was stock market related. That would mean that they wouldn't be able to retire for several more years and by the time it built back up it crashes again.

That is one reason that I don't like it and I don't know anything about it to safely invest. So I can either spend time learning here or I would have to start spending my time learning how to invest in stocks.

Invest in stocks and bonds for the dividends. As long as the dividend is paid, the volatility of the stock isn't as important. Just look back at what people were investing in. Oil, utilities, foods, household goods, etc. Stay away from retail and restaurants.

If you invest for the dividends and the stock goes down, you'll see buying opportunities instead of your losing a fortune.

If you want safe, a tax-free muni bond in a state that is fiscally somewhat sound will work.

6X6, in 2008, the S and P 500 lost about 52% in value, not “everything”. Those apocryphal folk who lost everything must have invested in single stocks of the financial industry, several of which did go bankrupt.

In three years, the S and P was back to new highs.

I'm not sure RE and investing on my own and the Stock Market with brokers is the same-- someone else in control? The brokers are touching my money where as RE I move or camp it out.

ONE thing I'm sure of: you can't be the master of everything. What I mean by that-- to be the VERY best you can be in RE investing-- you need to KNOW the lay of the land. Ditto if your going into the market-- or actually anything you do in life.

Taking RE to the next level-- you must know the market in SFH's if that's what you decided to do. Apartments-- know everything you can about them.

I was told this in my early years of buying foreclosures-- the office manager told my wife and I -- "how he hate's dealing with us". Sounded strange because we purchased many of their property's. He said he hated dealing with us because we knew more about the foreclosures then the people in his office selling them. WHY did we know more? Because we made it our business to study it. Know all the rules and regulations.

PH

I have been in the market for over 30 years. All kinds of strategies, wealth advisors and all kinds of books telling you how to invest in the market. Which one do you pick?

You say you are up 35% - what if I said Sell and you did when would you get back in? It's that timing thing again that no one seems to get right.

You need a strategy before you invest - same for RE you make your money when you buy.

Mine is a well-diversified portfolio 70/30 stocks/bonds of DFA funds, low-cost, no-load index funds managed by IFA. Be very careful how you pick the IFA. Slow and steady passive income.

You may want to read JR ME post - spot on

Thanks PG

I believe in having a plan as well. I do like JR’s post as well. Thanks JR. I may get that book too.

Right now bond yields are so low.

I would love to talk more in depth with people who have been successful with stock market investing. I have known of a few daytraders in my life who had some success for awhile then had a bad bad day. They got wiped out. I don’t consider myself that much smarter than them so I had chosen to avoid that.

I had the money and guts to get into stocks in May/June.

It was scary but I did it anyway.

Kind of reminds me of my first real estate investment only on a much smaller scale,

We’ll see where I am this summer. Hopefully I will have a more long term strategy I can share.

"One thing that I remember hearing about in 2008 was how a lot of people that were getting ready to retire lost everything."

6X6,

Those people were doing it wrong, if that happened. If you are ready to retire and need that money you are supposed to be mostly out of equities at the point.

It is pretty simple. Don't invest emergency funds or other money you're going to need to live on in the near future. And do not "panic sell" when a herd of people is selling. You just lock in your losses by doing that.

"One thing that I remember hearing about in 2008 was how a lot of people that were getting ready to retire lost everything."

6X6,

Those people were doing it wrong, if that happened. If you are ready to retire and need that money you are supposed to be mostly out of equities at the point.

It is pretty simple. Don't invest emergency funds or other money you're going to need to live on in the near future. And do not "panic sell" when a herd of people is selling. You just lock in your losses by doing that.

Peter - One thing that I did not mention. If you have a W2 job and the company offers a retirement plan such as before tax saving and some level of company match take full advantage of that ASAP. Do not wait - it is the best deal going.

Thanks PG I appreciate your point and totally agree

For me I’ve always been self employed and until recently funneled all money into more income producing condos

After thinking more about this it seems like investing in say the SP 500 for the long haul is like putting your bets down on capitalism and the United States

I am “down with that”.

Peter - Some good points from Razorback about dollar cost averaging and JFL about 2008 when some people lost it all - those folks had no plan and no knowledge about long term investing.

You may want to read and think about myob point about SFH and control of expense vs that of condos. For me the more control over cost a LL has the more profitable the RE investment should be.

PMH

I tried the timing or zig zag as you call it back in the 90s when Clinton was pres - best Dem ever - almost drove me nuts - I was always watching the market - I became a slave to the money - maybe you can do it - had my turn - NO thanks.

But some good news for you, according to my IFA newsletter,

some indexes in November saw double digit gains, best in years.

Question is when do you Zig and when do you Zag?