Housing Market Impact?
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Housing Market Impact? (by Ray-N-Pa [PA]) Nov 12, 2020 8:54 PM
       Housing Market Impact? (by NE [PA]) Nov 12, 2020 9:00 PM
       Housing Market Impact? (by Sorta Blonde [CA]) Nov 12, 2020 9:17 PM
       Housing Market Impact? (by Ray-N-Pa [PA]) Nov 12, 2020 9:28 PM
       Housing Market Impact? (by Ray-N-Pa [PA]) Nov 12, 2020 9:33 PM
       Housing Market Impact? (by Sorta Blonde [CA]) Nov 12, 2020 9:37 PM
       Housing Market Impact? (by Ray-N-Pa [PA]) Nov 12, 2020 9:42 PM
       Housing Market Impact? (by Richard [MI]) Nov 12, 2020 9:47 PM
       Housing Market Impact? (by BRAD 20,000 [IN]) Nov 12, 2020 9:52 PM
       Housing Market Impact? (by JB [OR]) Nov 12, 2020 10:53 PM
       Housing Market Impact? (by Ken [NY]) Nov 12, 2020 11:13 PM
       Housing Market Impact? (by Sorta Blonde [CA]) Nov 13, 2020 12:51 AM
       Housing Market Impact? (by DJ [VA]) Nov 13, 2020 10:24 AM
       Housing Market Impact? (by razorback_tim [AR]) Nov 13, 2020 10:30 AM
       Housing Market Impact? (by S i d [MO]) Nov 13, 2020 1:02 PM
       Housing Market Impact? (by 6x6 [TN]) Nov 13, 2020 1:35 PM
       Housing Market Impact? (by Ray-N-Pa [PA]) Nov 13, 2020 1:58 PM
       Housing Market Impact? (by BRAD 20,000 [IN]) Nov 13, 2020 3:18 PM
       Housing Market Impact? (by Tm [IN]) Nov 13, 2020 3:35 PM
       Housing Market Impact? (by 6x6 [TN]) Nov 13, 2020 3:48 PM
       Housing Market Impact? (by Pmh [TX]) Nov 13, 2020 4:34 PM
       Housing Market Impact? (by TM [IN]) Nov 13, 2020 6:21 PM
       Housing Market Impact? (by 6x6 [TN]) Nov 13, 2020 7:17 PM
       Housing Market Impact? (by PG [SC]) Nov 13, 2020 7:40 PM
       Housing Market Impact? (by Ray-N-Pa [PA]) Nov 13, 2020 8:10 PM
       Housing Market Impact? (by MikeA [TX]) Nov 13, 2020 9:31 PM
       Housing Market Impact? (by 6x6 [TN]) Nov 14, 2020 12:17 PM
       Housing Market Impact? (by WMh [NC]) Nov 14, 2020 12:35 PM
       Housing Market Impact? (by Pmh [TX]) Nov 14, 2020 1:47 PM
       Housing Market Impact? (by Pmh [TX]) Nov 14, 2020 1:53 PM
       Housing Market Impact? (by Sisco [MO]) Nov 14, 2020 3:16 PM
       Housing Market Impact? (by Tm [IN]) Nov 14, 2020 7:21 PM
       Housing Market Impact? (by Ray-N-Pa [PA]) Nov 15, 2020 1:27 PM
       Housing Market Impact? (by Pmh [TX]) Nov 16, 2020 5:24 PM

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Housing Market Impact? (by Ray-N-Pa [PA]) Posted on: Nov 12, 2020 8:54 PM
Message:

So much has been said about the eviction and foreclosure moratorium on this site. Many LLs do not like the outside influences on the housing market. I believe many folks are missing the multi-million dollar question

So after this moratorium is lifted, what are your opinions on the direction of the housing market? Please defend that position

--24.101.xxx.xx




Housing Market Impact? (by NE [PA]) Posted on: Nov 12, 2020 9:00 PM
Message:

A flood of bums looking to rent from us.

Once the moratorium on foreclosures is lifted, its party time for us! Unless the government gives owners a get out of jail free card on this. An olive branch of sorts to

"we the people" for their recent behavior. --70.44.xxx.xx




Housing Market Impact? (by Sorta Blonde [CA]) Posted on: Nov 12, 2020 9:17 PM
Message:

I foresee a ton of 'non-paying' tenants begging Landlords to make deals to stay and promising to behave. Housing market here in Chula Vista, a suburb of San Diego is very limited on available rentals. My little area is listing 1 bedroom single family houses for 1800+, 2 bedrooms for 2000 to 2200 and 3 bedrooms starting at 3000. Nobody wants to be kicked out of where they were paying much less and trying to get into somewhere that will charge horrendous prices. I've kept track of what's available in my area and my rental (just rented in mid-September) was $1900, water and trash paid. I was the lowest priced of all 2 bedrooms listed and still am. Can't imagine why anyone would pay that much. This is a middle-class neighborhood, no huge homes, no fancy anything. --72.199.xx.xxx




Housing Market Impact? (by Ray-N-Pa [PA]) Posted on: Nov 12, 2020 9:28 PM
Message:

Can we discuss how this will impact the HOUSING MARKET and not the rental market.

--24.101.xxx.xx




Housing Market Impact? (by Ray-N-Pa [PA]) Posted on: Nov 12, 2020 9:33 PM
Message:

I am inclined to think that 6-10 months after the moratorium is lifted that it will be shopping time for single family houses as the banks snap the whip. I don't think it will be a sudden down tun as I believe it will take time for banks to file and follow the legal process of foreclosure.

As for multi-families, I have been listening to some of the brightest minds in the industry cry that they are not happy with the outside influence. What I am thinking if the best folks are feeling pain, then just normal folks or rookies - they should be ready to be running for the doors. I think now is the time pick up multi family units.

Now locally our housing market inventory is only about 55% of what it was in March. If a place is move in ready, it will not last on the market if it is anywhere close to market value. Can I explain that.......I am having a hard time

--24.101.xxx.xx




Housing Market Impact? (by Sorta Blonde [CA]) Posted on: Nov 12, 2020 9:37 PM
Message:

Ahhh you wanted house purchases not rentals. Yeah, ditto on sales prices around here. Most homes being sold in less than a month and going for 1/2 mill or more for small 2-3 bedroom, single family, with small lots (not over 1/4 acre). Things didn't slow down with the Pandemic. Prices went up about 50k on listings and they are selling fast. Most homes in my area were built in the 40's and 50's. Not sure why the quick sales, since most people around here are renters. Maybe speculators from out of the area? --72.199.xx.xxx




Housing Market Impact? (by Ray-N-Pa [PA]) Posted on: Nov 12, 2020 9:42 PM
Message:

I am very familiar with Chula Vista.

In the 1990's they had an excellent experimental program that encouraged home ownership by having the city guarantee a down payment on purchases providing you lived in the house for a certain amount of time. The longer you were there, the city got less of your appreciation.

When I was in service I actually used to roller skate in CV.

My rentals were over in La Mesa and SV. I lived in Rancho San Diego --24.101.xxx.xx




Housing Market Impact? (by Richard [MI]) Posted on: Nov 12, 2020 9:47 PM
Message:

I think that decent people will continue ro leave larger cities and places with riots and that are run by socialists. Prices in outlying areas will be strong. Prices in bad areas will go down and likely way down.

Places that allow low income homes, travel trailers and tiny housing will see a major increase as the people who are thrown out by landlords for non payment no longer find other landlords willing to rent to them. Areas that cater to these people will experience a lowering of value/prices and an exodus of people who will not put up with these policies. --75.7.xx.xx




Housing Market Impact? (by BRAD 20,000 [IN]) Posted on: Nov 12, 2020 9:52 PM
Message:

Ray,

I suspect the moratoriums on foreclosures will continue so the flood of foreclosures will not come soon.

Locally houses are selling like crazy. Fast. At or above list.

Local production builders are running at full speed, taking advance orders.

Rates are super low so buyers have an easy entry.

A realtor called it Panic Buying - uuers snatching up what is available because supply is small, prices rising, and rates still low.

They are getting a lot of house for a monthly payment cheaper than rent.

BRAD --73.102.xxx.xxx




Housing Market Impact? (by JB [OR]) Posted on: Nov 12, 2020 10:53 PM
Message:

I can now see the politicians getting big-time ignorant all over again with extremely loose lending standard practices once again in a full-on effort to benefit/save all the deadbeats that quit paying their rent and are finally (at some point) getting kicked out and in danger of being homeless.

You can bet the Pres-elect B and Ms. Pelo si will be leading the way with the support of Bernie an AOC. And, of course, after a couple of years it will all come crashing down...AGAIN. But in the meantime, it will keep housing prices going up. That is until it all comes crashing down!

I think this will put a lot of pressure on current LLs, who can't compete with the govt. providing EZ housing/terms for those who otherwise wouldn't get enough credit to buy a pair of socks. --73.25.xx.xxx




Housing Market Impact? (by Ken [NY]) Posted on: Nov 12, 2020 11:13 PM
Message:

JB,it is referred to as future inventory --72.231.xxx.xxx




Housing Market Impact? (by Sorta Blonde [CA]) Posted on: Nov 13, 2020 12:51 AM
Message:

Ah Ray-N-Pa, someone who actually knows where Chula Vista is. Wow. Moved here in 1955. Also roller skated at the place on 'L' street if that's the one you remember. Small world. --72.199.xx.xxx




Housing Market Impact? (by DJ [VA]) Posted on: Nov 13, 2020 10:24 AM
Message:

OMG - trying to warp my head around Ray on roller skates! : )

I'm disappointed by the mortgage moratorium, because I'm hoping for some good SFH deals to make purchases in 2021. It still will come, maybe just delayed.

Now I'm thinking the best placebo look for a motivated seller will be tired landlords. That should provide inventory to buy before foreclosures are processed.

Fully rehabbed, retail house market is still very strong here. I don't see that changing any time soon. Fast sales for list price & more.

I wonder(personally considering) if we may see more "partially rehabbed" places being sold. You know, roof, electrical, plumbing is sound - so it can qualify for a mortgage. Cleaned up but not updated. Will buyers consider them, or are they too spoiled to settle for anything less than "perfect"? --70.160.xxx.xxx




Housing Market Impact? (by razorback_tim [AR]) Posted on: Nov 13, 2020 10:30 AM
Message:

There will be some deals but it will be nothing like 2008. There are too many at least semi-qualified buyers right now looking for homes for there to be a quick major crash. Over-regulation has led to an undersupply of homes. --98.174.xxx.xxx




Housing Market Impact? (by S i d [MO]) Posted on: Nov 13, 2020 1:02 PM
Message:

I predict no noticeable effect on housing market.

"Rent houses" will still be rent houses. There is a shortage of SFH rent houses now; there will still be a shortage post moratoriums. Good tenants will get good housing. Unqualified tenants who milked the moratoriums will have to pay higher deposits, get co-signers, or will be crashing on parents' couch for awhile.

Regarding homeowners: no one is building "affordable" homes in my town. Starter homes are around $170,000 and up, which requires more income than the median household $50,000. If you have dual income professionals or skilled tradesmen, you're good to go. If you're a $15-$20 / hour semi-skilled or unskilled worker, you're stuck with a rental unless you're okay owning your home in a neighborhood made up of mostly rentals. This isn't inherently bad, but not a lot of people will buy those and values tend to stagnate. People want new, fresh, and trendy if they can afford the payments. There's not much different in payment between a $120,000 house and a $170,000 house...$538 vs. $763 on a 30-year amortization at 3.5%. $225 ....but you have to qualify! A lot of folks can't because they owe so much on student loans, cars, credit cards, etc.

Money is stupid cheap right now and will probably remain so for the foreseeable future. If we see government backed 40-year mortgages, maybe some of the folks in the preceding paragraph will be able to buy starter homes. That may be the next Govt "solution" to the problem of affordable housing: not creating more supply to bring down prices, but rather making existing supply accessible to less qualified borrowers, which in turn will drive up the price.

Remember: keep in mind, my crystal ball broke back in 1975. --107.216.xxx.xxx




Housing Market Impact? (by 6x6 [TN]) Posted on: Nov 13, 2020 1:35 PM
Message:

Quiet honestly, I am still confused by the whole thing(no surprise, I know).

Other then the reasons Brad mentioned, I don't understand why houses are selling like they are. I mean, if you listen to the media and politicians, everyone is out of work and the economy is bad but, I don't see it. And from most on this site, rents are being paid and tenants are working. I don't even know why they keep talking about stimulus money. I realize that I don't get out much but...What am I missing?

As far as after the moratoriums are lifted, whenever that is, who knows, I think that there will be some evictions, because of all the tenants playing games and not really affected, but I don't think there will be as many as the media portrays and the same goes for foreclosures. I think some of the foreclosures will also be from owners playing the game.

Why would the banks be lending money to all of these buyers if they know that eventually there will be a lot of foreclosures? I really don't understand that. So will there really be that many? Do they know something that we don't?

If there are a lot of foreclosures then it would be a good time to buy. The thing is, when is it going to happen? I mean really, people have been saying this for a while and then it doesn't happen. The housing market just keeps booming and prices keep going higher, even during a pandemic.

However what goes up must come down, right? So now would be a good time to be a saver so as to buy with cash when the time comes. Or, at least, that is how I would rather buy. --73.120.xx.xxx




Housing Market Impact? (by Ray-N-Pa [PA]) Posted on: Nov 13, 2020 1:58 PM
Message:

Panic buying is a good term for SFH. 17 of the last 42 homes to be listed in the MLS had an offer on them before the listing was two weeks old.

I am not sure what will snap the cycle.......but I don't like hearing terms like "Panic" normally. I have been slowly shifting into a more liquid position so I am ready to vacuum up a few deals.

I sure wish I knew the trigger - I am inclined to believe it is linked to the artificial tampering with the free market. --24.101.xxx.xx




Housing Market Impact? (by BRAD 20,000 [IN]) Posted on: Nov 13, 2020 3:18 PM
Message:

I agree - burned and burned out LLs will be selling.

As in any crisis the person who can figure out a way to make things work will get rich.

BRAD --73.102.xxx.xxx




Housing Market Impact? (by Tm [IN]) Posted on: Nov 13, 2020 3:35 PM
Message:

Locally, much the same as Brad described above.

Been watching the sherieff sales... less on the list than normal. So either people are paying or there a ton of federal back loans that the foreclosure moratorium is affected.

My crystal ball, which is always a little fuzy... says it will stay that way. Federal reserve is going to literally flood the market. Your dollar is going to be worthless someday sooner than you care.... then watch out.... --174.221.x.xx




Housing Market Impact? (by 6x6 [TN]) Posted on: Nov 13, 2020 3:48 PM
Message:

Tm, watch out for what? --73.120.xx.xxx




Housing Market Impact? (by Pmh [TX]) Posted on: Nov 13, 2020 4:34 PM
Message:

6x6: low inventory & low rates push prices up. there are still many with the credit & resources to buy. lenders will keep lending to qualified buyers. sure they have tightened up. but not everyone is poor or no job.I for one am looking fwd to another 2008-09 crash to start buying again. prices now too high. --107.77.xxx.xx




Housing Market Impact? (by TM [IN]) Posted on: Nov 13, 2020 6:21 PM
Message:

Right now the us dollar is the world reserve currency. If the federal reserve keeps flooding the world with worthless green backs, the world will start using a different currency for transaction. When this happened to great Britain... massive inflation followed, you will also see more Civil unrest, govt won't be able finance its endless spending.... --76.77.xxx.xxx




Housing Market Impact? (by 6x6 [TN]) Posted on: Nov 13, 2020 7:17 PM
Message:

Thank you Pmh and TM --73.120.xx.xxx




Housing Market Impact? (by PG [SC]) Posted on: Nov 13, 2020 7:40 PM
Message:

In my area of SC our situation is the same as SID noted in Regarding homeowners: The people in the 15-20 buck level or stuck - and we have a lot of those folks - with basic construction in the 100/110 SF pre covid - The numbers just don't work for those folks.

Housing may go like cars - a few years ago car payments was 3 years now 5 and 6 - house payments instead of 30 maybe 40 or 50 years to get the payments low enough for the 15-20 buck folks to qualify - Who knows. --99.197.xxx.xxx




Housing Market Impact? (by Ray-N-Pa [PA]) Posted on: Nov 13, 2020 8:10 PM
Message:

Banks would absolutely love it if there were 50 year loans.

In Japan, it is commonplace for Father to purchase a home and the son to pay it off after the Father has passed on. That would not sound like much fun --24.101.xxx.xx




Housing Market Impact? (by MikeA [TX]) Posted on: Nov 13, 2020 9:31 PM
Message:

I'm not thinking much will change in SFH's in 2021. There will be a few more foreclosures but not a bunch. Anyone who is behind on their mortgage can likely cash in on the last appreciation cycle so they aren't underwater as they are normally. Money will remain free to re-energize the market after the pandemic for probably a year so buyers will continue to be plentiful. I'm thinking the down cycle will happen a year or two later. Free money will overstimulate the economy, inflation will increase, mortgages will turn upside down and the picking will be ripe. As for burned out landlords, I would have expected that they would already be out or getting out now. They have been dealing with this for 10 months now.

I agree that multi-families may be different. I expect some of the complexes that catered to the lower-end were hurt worse than most with non-payers. Pandemic job loss seemed to hit the lower paying (service industry) jobs worse thus those complexes are cash strapped. I'm betting there are lots of units that will hit the auction block this next year. They will probably take some money to fix up a years worth of deferred maintenance. --64.130.xx.xxx




Housing Market Impact? (by 6x6 [TN]) Posted on: Nov 14, 2020 12:17 PM
Message:

Ray, why do banks not do fifty year loans now then?

--73.120.xx.xxx




Housing Market Impact? (by WMh [NC]) Posted on: Nov 14, 2020 12:35 PM
Message:

One of the reason buyers want turn-key homes is that they do not have the skills or the TOOLS to do home renovation. It took us decades to accumulate our tools!

In the over-50 crowd, a college education is less the norm than it is today for the younger folks. They've got plenty of "book learning" but few life skills.

They are also connected constantly - no time to sit there and say, "I wonder if I could move that wall?"

Our fault, really. We didn't want our kids and grandkids to have "blue collar" jobs. We wanted something "better" for them... --50.82.xxx.xxx




Housing Market Impact? (by Pmh [TX]) Posted on: Nov 14, 2020 1:47 PM
Message:

6x6: 40 year notes were being offered after 2008-09....100 year notes have been available in Europe for years.....then again in the UK there are 1,000 year leases... --107.77.xxx.xx




Housing Market Impact? (by Pmh [TX]) Posted on: Nov 14, 2020 1:53 PM
Message:

TM...being from the UK am curious what you refer to (?). the greenback will continue to be the currency of last resort bc it has NEVER been compromised. perhaps do some research also on why currencies prices fluctuate.... --107.77.xxx.xx




Housing Market Impact? (by Sisco [MO]) Posted on: Nov 14, 2020 3:16 PM
Message:

2020 business winners have been furniture, RVs, gardening, canning and cooking. Losers have been malls, restaurants, airlines, cruises, theaters.

Pre COVID, The buzzwords was experiences, as in; we wonít spend our money on things, we instead want travel. People interested in making their house a home is a positive for my business.

--67.43.xxx.xxx




Housing Market Impact? (by Tm [IN]) Posted on: Nov 14, 2020 7:21 PM
Message:

The British pound use to be the world currency. Not the us dollar until after WWII... --76.77.xxx.xxx




Housing Market Impact? (by Ray-N-Pa [PA]) Posted on: Nov 15, 2020 1:27 PM
Message:

Hmmmmm

So if the value of the dollar would go down, then assets that are based on the income approach of appraising would do better than real estate using comp value methods.

In other words, now is the time to look more at MFH --24.101.xxx.xx




Housing Market Impact? (by Pmh [TX]) Posted on: Nov 16, 2020 5:24 PM
Message:

you didnít answer the question TM.... --107.77.xxx.xx



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