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Nostradamus (by Bill [KY]) Sep 15, 2020 8:44 AM
       Nostradamus (by PKT [IN]) Sep 15, 2020 9:56 AM
       Nostradamus (by Richard [MI]) Sep 15, 2020 10:00 AM
       Nostradamus (by Allym [NJ]) Sep 15, 2020 10:23 AM
       Nostradamus (by Allym [NJ]) Sep 15, 2020 10:26 AM
       Nostradamus (by Allym [NJ]) Sep 15, 2020 10:27 AM
       Nostradamus (by Allym [NJ]) Sep 15, 2020 10:28 AM
       Nostradamus (by NE [PA]) Sep 15, 2020 10:29 AM
       Nostradamus (by NE [PA]) Sep 15, 2020 10:45 AM
       Nostradamus (by Plenty [MO]) Sep 15, 2020 11:16 AM
       Nostradamus (by WMH [NC]) Sep 15, 2020 11:26 AM
       Nostradamus (by myob [GA]) Sep 15, 2020 11:42 AM
       Nostradamus (by NE [PA]) Sep 15, 2020 12:13 PM
       Nostradamus (by JR [ME]) Sep 15, 2020 12:29 PM
       Nostradamus (by Wilma [PA]) Sep 15, 2020 12:49 PM
       Nostradamus (by Landlord ofthe Flies [TX]) Sep 15, 2020 3:36 PM
       Nostradamus (by PT [IN]) Sep 15, 2020 3:53 PM
       Nostradamus (by NE [PA]) Sep 15, 2020 4:09 PM
       Nostradamus (by Pmh [TX]) Sep 15, 2020 5:43 PM
       Nostradamus (by BRAD 20,000 [IN]) Sep 15, 2020 9:54 PM
       Nostradamus (by Landlord ofthe Flies [TX]) Sep 16, 2020 3:10 PM
       Nostradamus (by WMH [NC]) Sep 17, 2020 10:05 AM

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Nostradamus (by Bill [KY]) Posted on: Sep 15, 2020 8:44 AM

We hear a lot of speculation about the effects of a current/pending/future economic downturn and how it will affect the real estate industry. For those that have experienced previous downturns, what’s your best prediction on the date for an economic reckoning? What signs are you looking for?

In my SFH market, inventory is non-existent and houses are selling for inflated prices with multiple offers. Realtors are buying 1990’s construction 3/2’s in decent zip codes for $150k and immediately re-listing for $180-190k. MF inventory is equally light and the only properties available are dogs that smart owners are dumping.

With low interest rates, eviction moratoriums, government stimulus, etc., when do you see this economic reckoning washing out over leveraged mom & pop landlords and property owners negatively affected by a covid led economic downturn? We keep hearing about job loss, underemployed, moms & dads forced to drop from full time to part-time work with kids being in virtual school, etc. Nostradamus, sage of infinite wisdom, please tell thou of little vision what’s to come.

Nostradamus (by PKT [IN]) Posted on: Sep 15, 2020 9:56 AM

Not to be funny, but last week.

Nostradamus (by Richard [MI]) Posted on: Sep 15, 2020 10:00 AM

It will depend on who wins the election. Either way, I see trouble. Smart people are dumping everything in problem areas. There are tens of thousands leaving bad areas. Hopefully, most of those are good people. We don't need the ones that are responsible.

I think it will get to shooting (by the conservatives) soon. The socialists are already doing it and burning and looting as well.

We are in for a rough ride. --75.7.xx.xx

Nostradamus (by Allym [NJ]) Posted on: Sep 15, 2020 10:23 AM

In 2006 when Pelosi, Reid, Dodd et al decided to give 200K mortgages to people with poor credit, it took a couple years for the people who bought the homes to become overwhelmed with owning a house. What also hurt them was the extreme cold weather and the price of fuel oil, driving them to heat their homes instead of paying the mortgage. They then either abandoned the homes or were evicted because they could not resell. Pelosi put a clause in the mortgage that people could not resell for five years. My neighbors son and daughter got caught in that. He was injured at work and they lost the home.

Nostradamus (by Allym [NJ]) Posted on: Sep 15, 2020 10:26 AM

continued as the whole thing would not post: So with the current Mr. T we have no energy cost problem. If the other party gets in and starts restricting fuel sources and delivery and the prices spike we could have the same issue. The weather is also a problem. We were in Solar Minimum then, weak sun little heat. But we now are coming OUT of a minimum so not so much problem.

Nostradamus (by Allym [NJ]) Posted on: Sep 15, 2020 10:27 AM

continued Unfortunately we are not heading for a healthy hot maximum. Researchers found that the Maximums will be smaller for at least the next three cycles. That means "global warming" type climate change is not valid. Scientists tend to see their own little tiny area of expertise and not look at a more general scientific viewpoint.

Nostradamus (by Allym [NJ]) Posted on: Sep 15, 2020 10:28 AM

continued. Oceanographers, for example, don't check to see what the sun is doing. Had a tenant studying plankton and he didn't know about Solar Minimum and that it would have an effect. So if we get T back it probably won't happen or not fast. The other guy it will be almost immediate and the market will "correct". It looks like the same swindle is going on with selling defective homes for higher prices only this time it's just the realtors who are doing the scam.

The v a c c ine will work and people will be able to go back to work. So maybe no crash if Mr. T. stays in place.

Nostradamus (by NE [PA]) Posted on: Sep 15, 2020 10:29 AM

What's to come may be worse that what we could imagine. No one ever anticipated experiencing what we just experienced over the last 6 months, yet here we are.

Will it get to the point where values go to nothing? Doubtful.

Cities are on going on clearance right now, but will there be any buyers?.

Richard, if the ones who just want to be left alone in life (conservatives) get unwillingly drawn into this conflict, it will be very messy. There is a large portion of the population who will sit 30' up in a tree in 15 degree weather, waiting 12 hours for a deer to walk by. That's when they're in a good mood.

Nostradamus (by NE [PA]) Posted on: Sep 15, 2020 10:45 AM

And let's not forget who has put us and continues to hold us in this position.

Nostradamus (by Plenty [MO]) Posted on: Sep 15, 2020 11:16 AM

NE... who is that? --99.203.xx.xx

Nostradamus (by WMH [NC]) Posted on: Sep 15, 2020 11:26 AM

Predictions about things that will not return anytime soon, and/or will be much changed...

Movie Theaters. Our local theater has started selling take-out popcorn and candy in the afternoon so people can take it home and watch on their giant new Stimulus TVs.

Housing: I think SFHs outside of the city will keep going up in price. People who were paying big bucks to live in tiny apartments near their offices in the city now have no reason to do so, and want larger homes so that they can set up Zoom School Rooms, and actual home offices, and probably personal pools, gyms, etc. Those can afford to flee to the country or at least the suburbs, probably will.

Large corporations are buying out their expensive leases on their downtown offices and encouraging people to work from home. I don't see that changing anytime soon.

Restaurants who swiveled from inside dining to good take-out food are thriving. Bars are getting hurt bad, and alcohol contributes a HUGE amount to a restaurant's bottom line, too. I think the restaurants that survive are going to be different for a long time to come.

What else?

Nostradamus (by myob [GA]) Posted on: Sep 15, 2020 11:42 AM

Said it before and will say it again. In the words of Clint Eastwood............. "Unforgiven" bar scene confronting those who killed his buddy.

He shoots the bar keep for displaying his buddy's body (Morgan Freeman) vertical in a box in front of the bar. Kills him dead with a shotgun blast. Gene Hackman says "you just shot an unarmed man"

To which William Money responds "well he should have armed himself".

you see the warning signs. You hear the outrage and vile speeches spitting hate. I for one have never witnessed this type of speech and vile vile verbiage. When I finally woke up to the hate was watching that reverend on TV. Except for some middle eastern religious persons-- I've never seen that before. I've never seen, in my church, hatred like I've recently witnessed. I see and talk to my tenants constantly. I see my neighbors and say high. Really to busy to hate. There is one tenant who has the Antifa signs 20 of them in the yard--- she has some mean words but I don't reciprocate that vile stuff. Always yes ma'am - no ma'am.

I am silently protecting myself and my family-- that's my #1 job.

I boil this down to one issue: compliance.

Nostradamus (by NE [PA]) Posted on: Sep 15, 2020 12:13 PM

Well Plenty, it should certainly not Kristi Noem.

Nostradamus (by JR [ME]) Posted on: Sep 15, 2020 12:29 PM

My Swami predictions:

Top 1%ers will do great, The stock market, where they keep the majority of their assets is marching ever upward. Zero percent interest rates and a very loose Fed will keep the party going long into the future.

The “mass affluent” those in the say 80th to 99th percentile in assets and income, which includes many of the posters on this forum, will also do well. There will always be money to be made by energetic, entrepreneurial types like us. We have options, houses in different neighborhoods, life skills, etc.

Those in the say 40th- 79th percentile in income/assets will struggle. Folks like middle managers, fast food outlet supervisors, the guys that work for muffler shops, teachers in all but the largest school districts, nurses. Decent housing is getting out of their reach for buying and in many markets, for renting as well. Healthcare costs are out of control, and they will struggle just to keep their heads above water. Saving for retirement becomes a luxury they can not afford.

Those in the 11th to 39th percentile will see an acceleration of the deterioration of their lives. With poor educations and a culture that glorifies violence, misogyny, single parent households, drug use, etc., almost no jobs of the future will provide anything semblance of a traditional middle class lifestyle for them. Expect more civil unrest, burnings, and looting of what ever little they have. It doesn’t matter who gets elected President in Nov, the anarchistic genie has been let out of the bottle.

For those in the lowest 10%, paradoxically, their lives will get a little easier with more government giveaways, which supply almost all of their income.

Bottom line, houses in better neighborhoods, better zip codes, in the suburbs, exurbs, and select rural areas with access to world-class recreation areas will thrive. Urban neighborhood blight and rural despair areas will increase in both area and absolute poverty and miserableness. It will be very hard for middle/upper middle class folks to stay there.

Nostradamus (by Wilma [PA]) Posted on: Sep 15, 2020 12:49 PM

I get a grin on my face every time I see the name Nostradamus. In the Broadway play "Something Rotten", a character named Thomas Nostradamus (incompetent nephew of the original soothsayer) predicts to a rival playwright that Shakespeare's next hit will be "Omelette", and that musicals are the next great thing. The rival playwright proceeds to create "Omelette the Musical". Hilarity ensues.

Nostradamus (by Landlord ofthe Flies [TX]) Posted on: Sep 15, 2020 3:36 PM

I think the biggest losers will be large cities and Democrat strongholds. Large cities because people see how fragile they really are, and companies are seeing how they don't have to be there. I see falling prices in residential and commercial in those areas. The Dems are in trouble because now that we've seen how little disregard they have for their constituents and how desperately they want to control them or have power over them, they've exposed their true identities.

Surely the voters are waking up. Or maybe I'm going to wake up once I learn just how mindless and controllable our population really is.

Nostradamus (by PT [IN]) Posted on: Sep 15, 2020 3:53 PM

I find it funny how every conservation turns political for no reason.

Nostradamus (by NE [PA]) Posted on: Sep 15, 2020 4:09 PM

PT, what exactly is being discussed?

Nostradamus (by Pmh [TX]) Posted on: Sep 15, 2020 5:43 PM

long time LL but can’t understand connection of plankton & renting houses.

Nostradamus (by BRAD 20,000 [IN]) Posted on: Sep 15, 2020 9:54 PM


My prediction: Those who pay attention and adapt will prosper and grow.

Those who don't, won't.


Nostradamus (by Landlord ofthe Flies [TX]) Posted on: Sep 16, 2020 3:10 PM

At every moment in time, there's both an opportunity and a crisis. It just depends on which side of the table you're on.

Bad times are the best times to make profitable purchases. Good times are the best times to make profitable sales.

Nostradamus (by WMH [NC]) Posted on: Sep 17, 2020 10:05 AM

We've had more sales this year than EVER, according to our agent. He sent me some statistics.

Bidding wars abound. Full price cash PLUS PLUS PLUS.

A house we would have spent $55k on last year is $149k this year. Built in 1947, original wiring, new paint & flooring but original kitchen, etc. On the noisy highway. Big lots but that just means more to mow. Lipstick on a pig. 7 showings yesterday, day after it hit the market.

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