Stock and Bond balance
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Stock and Bond balance (by BillW [NJ]) Aug 4, 2020 5:38 PM
       Stock and Bond balance (by Pmh [TX]) Aug 4, 2020 5:53 PM
       Stock and Bond balance (by BillW [NJ]) Aug 4, 2020 6:16 PM
       Stock and Bond balance (by Pmh [TX]) Aug 4, 2020 6:37 PM
       Stock and Bond balance (by Richard [MI]) Aug 4, 2020 7:08 PM
       Stock and Bond balance (by MikeA [TX]) Aug 4, 2020 7:12 PM
       Stock and Bond balance (by Dodge [PA]) Aug 4, 2020 7:16 PM
       Stock and Bond balance (by J [FL]) Aug 4, 2020 8:07 PM
       Stock and Bond balance (by J [FL]) Aug 4, 2020 8:07 PM
       Stock and Bond balance (by BillW [NJ]) Aug 4, 2020 9:12 PM
       Stock and Bond balance (by J [FL]) Aug 4, 2020 9:27 PM
       Stock and Bond balance (by JR [ME]) Aug 4, 2020 9:49 PM
       Stock and Bond balance (by JR [ME]) Aug 4, 2020 10:27 PM
       Stock and Bond balance (by J [FL]) Aug 5, 2020 6:28 AM
       Stock and Bond balance (by Ken [NY]) Aug 5, 2020 7:50 AM
       Stock and Bond balance (by BillW [NJ]) Aug 5, 2020 7:58 AM
       Stock and Bond balance (by Nicole [PA]) Aug 5, 2020 9:27 AM
       Stock and Bond balance (by S i d [MO]) Aug 5, 2020 10:01 AM
       Stock and Bond balance (by PG [SC]) Aug 5, 2020 10:35 AM
       Stock and Bond balance (by BillW [NJ]) Aug 5, 2020 12:23 PM
       Stock and Bond balance (by Landlord ofthe Flies [TX]) Aug 5, 2020 3:30 PM
       Stock and Bond balance (by PG [SC]) Aug 5, 2020 4:08 PM
       Stock and Bond balance (by MikeA [TX]) Aug 5, 2020 5:58 PM
       Stock and Bond balance (by Pmh [TX]) Aug 5, 2020 6:05 PM
       Stock and Bond balance (by JR [ME]) Aug 5, 2020 7:05 PM
       Stock and Bond balance (by J [FL]) Aug 5, 2020 7:50 PM
       Stock and Bond balance (by BillW [NJ]) Aug 6, 2020 11:02 AM
       Stock and Bond balance (by Pmh [TX]) Aug 7, 2020 6:15 PM
       Stock and Bond balance (by BillW [NJ]) Aug 7, 2020 6:21 PM
       Stock and Bond balance (by Nicole [PA]) Aug 7, 2020 6:49 PM
       Stock and Bond balance (by Pmh [TX]) Aug 7, 2020 6:52 PM
       Stock and Bond balance (by BillW [NJ]) Aug 7, 2020 6:59 PM
       Stock and Bond balance (by J [FL]) Aug 7, 2020 8:12 PM
       Stock and Bond balance (by BillW [NJ]) Aug 7, 2020 8:40 PM
       Stock and Bond balance (by BillW [NJ]) Aug 7, 2020 8:44 PM

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Stock and Bond balance (by BillW [NJ]) Posted on: Aug 4, 2020 5:38 PM
Message:

In my wifeís 401k, all three stock funds and one bond fund is at its 52- week high. The bond fund is 19% of the portfolio and 2 index funds and one mutual fund, equal the other 81% of the 401k.

Considering her funds looks to be doing great and our economy is not doing so great (or is it?), do you think we should rebalance the funds, maybe shift more towards bonds or cash?

In addition to the 401k, 56% of our net worth is in rental properties and the 8% is in cash, i.e., bank accounts and money markets. We are in our mid 50's

Your thoughts are appreciated. Thanks, Bill

--70.158.xxx.xx




Stock and Bond balance (by Pmh [TX]) Posted on: Aug 4, 2020 5:53 PM
Message:

what are the index funds & the mutual fund invested in ? also: no one except you knows what your long term goals are: remember you will live to 75-85 or longer. many use the retirement age as the target. need to be planning for another 25 years. --107.77.xxx.xx




Stock and Bond balance (by BillW [NJ]) Posted on: Aug 4, 2020 6:16 PM
Message:

Good points Pmh. Thanks.

Truth be told, we don't have long term goals. I guess we should make some.

My daughter graduated college and has a job and we have enough in a 529 to cover my son's last 3 years. My wife and I don't have aspirations to retire anytime soon. The four of us our pretty healthy. Only one of our parents is still alive and she's done well for herself.

I just thought it might be a good time to park some of our stock funds into cash or bonds as the economy doesn't look so great to me.

As for the funds in the 401k(actually a 403b, my wife works at a college(and I rent to college students, yikes!)) they are:

FNCMX

FID NASDAQ COMP INDX 25%

FTBFX

FID TOTAL BOND 19%

FXAIX

FID 500 INDEX 22%

FDGRX

FID GROWTH COMPANY 34%

--108.35.xxx.xxx




Stock and Bond balance (by Pmh [TX]) Posted on: Aug 4, 2020 6:37 PM
Message:

I have some fidelity funds also. sold fncmx last week.. getting a little concerned about the high so harvested. added to fdgrx. will drill down on yours. hang tight. economy not good right now but if you think long term then just endure the ride. I know many on this board have sold low bc mkts crashed. short term thinking. perhaps others will post also. I did go to 25% cash in Dec & bought in March. am still at that ratio & waiting for another 2008-2009 crash. I was at 50% cash then & bought all I could pay for when Dow was 7,000. I am no genius. I just wasnít comfortable where mkt was & sold two mos b4 that low.reminded me of the gas station attendant who told me he could find me financing in early 2008 & seeing the lines in FL to buy unbuilt condos...I realized it was all messed up... --107.77.xxx.xx




Stock and Bond balance (by Richard [MI]) Posted on: Aug 4, 2020 7:08 PM
Message:

The stock market has made a near incredible return from the drop in March/April. It's at a pretty high valuation now. In a way it doesn't make sense because we have had a decline in production. so what's the reason? I think it is a result of very low interest rates. The people that are broke are not the ones buying stocks. It's the big companies using basically free money to buy back their own stocks and other stocks they think are good.

Once the interest rate starts rising, stocks should pull back. But how long will that be? After the election most likely.Until then, I think they will trend higher.

Real estate has been rising the last 2 to 3 years. Since the riots have started and the other stuff, it's obvious many people are leaving the big cities for smaller towns and more rural places. Data reports this as increasing. Prices in the

country and small towns are increasing faster while cities with riots are decreasing.This along with the covid19 stuff and more people working from home I think will continue. With low interest rates, I think both the amount of sales and also the prices will go up. If the riots get worse, it will go way up. The election will be a large part of it.

As to cash and precious metals: There are reports of a cash shortage. Real or manufactured, I'm seeing reports that there is a war on cash and that certain groups "the globalists" want an end to cash. I've heard the expression "only crooks use cash" at least 6 times in the past 2 weeks. I never heard that before, except regarding bitcoin.

There's also talk of the banks implementing negative interest rates, where they actually charge you to have your money there.

Then there's the money confiscation, also known as devaluation. A couple places last year,I think, just took up to 40 percent of bank accounts above a certain amount. Took it. I think Cypress was one of them. Combine that with the report that the federal guarantee fund, which says that your account is guaranteed to $250,000 is woefully underfunded and could not hope to cover any major loss and you could have a problem if you have a good amount in cash.

The govt, has a massive deficit. Sooner or later it will have to be addressed. Weather it is by inflation, higher taxes or reducing pensions, social security or some combination, it means less for many people. I predict that this country will implement some type of means testing before paying pensions and social security. They already do it for welfare, food stamps, medicare, etc. If you have assets or savings above a certain amount, $2000 I think, you get less or pay more. I believe this will become much more widespread.

Gold, silver, diamonds, etc: I think these have typically been mostly used as a hedge against inflation and sometimes in very hard times when paper money meant nothing. I would not hold too much in them unless you have a very large amount of other stuff you could use. You can't eat gold or silver, etc.

--24.180.xx.xxx




Stock and Bond balance (by MikeA [TX]) Posted on: Aug 4, 2020 7:12 PM
Message:

Your stock/bond and market/RE breakdowns are reasonably close to mine, age about the same. I have a little less bonds and more in the market. Living off RE income and not touching market based assets.

My thoughts, everything is variable on the short-term, too much movement to guess about the future when looking at 6-12 months ahead. I tend to believe nothing significant has changed in the longer term so performance over the last 30 years should be similar to the next 30 years. With that said, stocks should perform better than bonds by 4-8% (depending on which stats you look at) so I tend to lean heavy into stocks with just enough bonds to keep my financial advisor from freaking out. I don't really plan on tapping those funds for 8-10 years so I want it to continue to grow.

Many of the financial companies that host 401K's have on-line retirement planning analysis tools available (or you can subscribe to some paid programs). I have spent a fair amount of time in a couple of them. Inputting all assets, income streams, and playing variables like various stock/bond % allocation, selling RE sooner/later/never, and seeing the outcome from the monte carlo simulations with respect to Income variation and total Net Worth for the rest of my projected life. If you haven't spent time doing this it is very informative. It really helped me lay out an informed plan that made me feel comfortable retiring from the day job a couple of years ago at 56. I am a skeptic by nature, and a worrier that I'll outlive my assets, but when I used two different companies programs (vastly different approaches) and both were within 6% of the same outcome at the end of 30 years it made me feel much better. --64.130.xx.xxx




Stock and Bond balance (by Dodge [PA]) Posted on: Aug 4, 2020 7:16 PM
Message:

"don't fight the fed" --174.198.xxx.xx




Stock and Bond balance (by J [FL]) Posted on: Aug 4, 2020 8:07 PM
Message:

It sounds like a pretty reasonable allocation to me. I'm just a few years younger than you and I'm all stocks. --72.188.xxx.xxx




Stock and Bond balance (by J [FL]) Posted on: Aug 4, 2020 8:07 PM
Message:

It sounds like a pretty reasonable allocation to me. I'm just a few years younger than you and I'm all stocks. --72.188.xxx.xxx




Stock and Bond balance (by BillW [NJ]) Posted on: Aug 4, 2020 9:12 PM
Message:

Thanks Pmh, Interesting on your Fidelity trades. Iíve always had good luck with Fidelity Growth fund. Iím just looking at $9k I invested in FDGRX, back in 2000. Itís now worth $49k, a gain of 433%. And donít divide by 20 to get the annual return. It will only lead to embarrassment at the dinner table. The wonders of compound interest.

Richard, much of your writing about cash shortages and the deficit was over my head, but what I understood was interesting stuff. Thanks for that. And that was amazing, the return from March levels, I wonder if anyone predicted that with certainty?

Thanks MikeA on the reminder of the financial tools. Iíve forgotten they exist after using them years ago. Theyíre probably more accurate now. And good idea to get a second opinion (second calculation).

I think thatís solid thinking on the variability in the short term and too much movement to predict the short-term future. Getting out of stocks now seems kind of a no-brainer, but I guess itís not so simple.

--108.35.xxx.xxx




Stock and Bond balance (by J [FL]) Posted on: Aug 4, 2020 9:27 PM
Message:

"Getting out of stocks now seems kind of a no-brainer, but I guess itís not so simple."

I think it totally depends on the company. I've been buying since March and I believe some of these -- particularly the bank stocks -- may have bottomed out already.

Amazon is a very expensive stock but I only see Amazon getting more dominant, unless the gov't steps in and tries to break it up.

And also I may be a huge pollyanna but I'm not sold yet that were' going to have Great Depression 2.0. --72.188.xxx.xxx




Stock and Bond balance (by JR [ME]) Posted on: Aug 4, 2020 9:49 PM
Message:

ďYour Money RatiosĒ by Charles Farrell is, in my opinion, the best basic book guide to personal finance ever written. 17 bucks on Amazon.

It will answer this and many other basic finance questions in a clear and understandable way. --98.13.xx.xxx




Stock and Bond balance (by JR [ME]) Posted on: Aug 4, 2020 10:27 PM
Message:

You are in your mid 50s. You are healthy, but most Americans retire by 65 or earlier. With less than ten years to retirement, most gurus would say having only 19% in bonds and 8% in cash is too aggressive. Way too risky. The greater stock market could, and has, fallen 50% in any given year. Not a good way to start retirement if 80% of your egg gets cut in half. Of course, you have rental properties too, which might protect you, and the total amount saved vs. your annual expenses plays an enormous role, too. For instance, if your retirement kitty is 80% stocks, 20% bonds, but the amount in bonds could cover 5 or more years of your retirement expenses And you have one to two years expenses in cash, you are probably OK. The stocks could reasonably be expected to recover in 5 to 7 years. --98.13.xx.xxx




Stock and Bond balance (by J [FL]) Posted on: Aug 5, 2020 6:28 AM
Message:

I missed the 8% cash part in the OP. That does sound risky. --72.188.xxx.xxx




Stock and Bond balance (by Ken [NY]) Posted on: Aug 5, 2020 7:50 AM
Message:

JR,thanks for the tip on the book,will be ordering it --104.229.xxx.xxx




Stock and Bond balance (by BillW [NJ]) Posted on: Aug 5, 2020 7:58 AM
Message:

Ordered the book, JR, thanks. When I read this post, I can see itís all in the ratios. And thanks so much for telling me my ratios are ďway too riskyĒ Iíve been floating along for years without much thought to my ratios, so Iím happy to be getting on top of it. And when things are going along well, as they have been in the stock market, the thought of a 50% drop is unfathomable. Well, Iíll be reading the book and getting on course.

And good point J that ďit totally depends on the companyĒ Yeah, I too wonder if and what the government will do to break up Amazon.

--108.35.xxx.xxx




Stock and Bond balance (by Nicole [PA]) Posted on: Aug 5, 2020 9:27 AM
Message:

As I'm slowly "aging out" of landlording, I'm always looking at other ways to invest. I look at the cash I invested this past March and where it is today and sure seems like I made good decisions. However, we all know about the stock market.

Note buying and hard money lending keep churning about my brain. I am a control freak so both of those have many down sides.

The past several years I've changed up my mix of properties (I got rid of some REAL cash cows due to the effort involved to generate that cash) and bought several with less cash flow and less "landlording effort" but more appreciation potential in different areas.

I'm always interested in these type threads even though some of it is beyond my brain functioning power lately. --72.70.xxx.xx




Stock and Bond balance (by S i d [MO]) Posted on: Aug 5, 2020 10:01 AM
Message:

Bond values rise/fall inversely to interest rates. Interest rates are at record lows and don't have much lower to go. Ergo, bond prices have only small possible gains but huge possible losses if we see rates rise.

In other words, bonds are trading near their high water mark. They COULD stay high for awhile or not. But they can't GO much higher.

Sell 'em! Reinvest the proceeds in a high dividend blue chip or pay down highest interest rate debt for guaranteed savings. --107.216.xxx.xxx




Stock and Bond balance (by PG [SC]) Posted on: Aug 5, 2020 10:35 AM
Message:

I have been in the market for over 30 years - no one can determine the direction of the market - market timing does not work - i have tried them all - don't watch the market every day

Reread MIKE A second paragraph - monte carlo simulations - I had three from various advisors - key is to have a plan

Currently retired with a 70/30 - DSA Diversified portfolio - IFA charging 1.0% - yes I can go 70 due to other sources of income.

I might add that high dividend blue chips work for a lot of investors who want to go it alone. --184.20.xxx.xx




Stock and Bond balance (by BillW [NJ]) Posted on: Aug 5, 2020 12:23 PM
Message:

Well thank you S I d. Good to know bonds canít go much higher and your recommendation to put proceeds in a high dividend blue chip or pay off debt. It is in a 403b, so I canít use to pay off debt, but maybe I should put my 8% cash towards mortgages. I was holding the money to buy properties, but the student housing market ainít looking so good now (oh, yeah, thatís the time to buy right?. Hmmm)

I hear you Nicole, on ďbeyond my brain functionĒ I think about some of this investment stuff and I either feel like checking the latest news or taking a nap. But I totally agree with you that these are great threads and I am happy and grateful that people take their time to share their experience and wisdom.

PG, thanks for the reminder on market timing not working.

I tried the fidelity simulator for retirement analysis, but it only considers money invested in places like fidelity accounts, and not rental properties, so Iím not sure how to account for the rentals. Any ideas on simulators to use and what I should be simulating?

I had to look up what IFA was, but now I get it and wonder if I should get one of these. You think they can be unbiased? I mean, are they trying to sell you something?

And good vote on the high dividend blue chips. Iíll see if Fidelity has a fund for that.

--108.35.xxx.xxx




Stock and Bond balance (by Landlord ofthe Flies [TX]) Posted on: Aug 5, 2020 3:30 PM
Message:

When investing in blue chips, be sure to buy recession-proof companies. In other words, no matter how bad the economy gets, people will buy food, bathe, brush their teeth, and put gas in their car.

Stay away from stocks like travel, vacation, luxury goods, entertainment, etc. Things you'd cut back on when times get tough. If you do that you'll do ok in any economic climate or at least recover quickly. --108.69.xxx.xxx




Stock and Bond balance (by PG [SC]) Posted on: Aug 5, 2020 4:08 PM
Message:

Bill W - Be very careful when selecting a IFA, if that is what you decide to do. Number one. Is the IDA trustworthy. I was turning over 30 years of savings to him.

Back in 2009 I sent 6 IFAs a 30 question questioner - some filled it out - others did not - the one I chose sent it back the next day completely answered.

After that I had several face to face meetings with him.

The better IFAs don't sell products they just manage you money for a flat fee.

You need to understand what his strategy is and how he implements that strategy in good and bad markets.

What is a reasonable rate of return and what is his benchmark.

Do your homework. Good Luck

--184.20.xxx.xx




Stock and Bond balance (by MikeA [TX]) Posted on: Aug 5, 2020 5:58 PM
Message:

Bill,

Fidelity is one of the tools I initially used.

To account for RE you have to break it into 2 pieces

First enter your rentals net monthly income (less payments and expenses but not income tax) in the income tab. If you plan on selling them at some point you can indicate the years that this income will be coming in.

Second, enter the value of your properties under Assets. I always used around 75% of actual value to account for closing costs and Capital Gains when I sell (which the tool can't account for). Make sure to designate this as Short-term which shows appreciation as something like 3-4%, this will account for the property value increasing over time but not the income it is generating.

Once you get it all put in then start playing with some of the variables to see what happens to income and asset value over time by doing different things. Some examples:

Change your retirement date to sooner and later

Change the dates your rental income stops (selling)

Change your essential/discretionary expense amounts

Change your asset allocations from conservative to higher risk and see what happens.

Play with the button on the charts that is significantly below, below, or average returns

Be sure to look at the chart on income to see how the source of income changes over the years.

As you begin to play with variables the outcomes will become clearer. For example, as I was looking at retiring early I found that working another 5 years did not make any significant difference in my retirement income numbers or end of life assets. While I liked what I was doing it wasn't worth the freedom I was missing. It also helped define things like when I would sell RE and if/when I was comfortable blowing more money per month in retirement (increasing discretionary spending). --64.130.xx.xxx




Stock and Bond balance (by Pmh [TX]) Posted on: Aug 5, 2020 6:05 PM
Message:

interesting thread. some informative responses. my goal is to spend all my $ (kids are on their own like I was) and bounce the check to the undertaker...... --107.77.xxx.xxx




Stock and Bond balance (by JR [ME]) Posted on: Aug 5, 2020 7:05 PM
Message:

BillW.

Look into the website or app ďPersonal CapitalĒ It has a pretty good free site (they will bombard you with ads for their paid financial services, you can just not reply)

You can aggregate all your accounts and in assets like rental properties. Their retirement simulator is solidly good (for a free app)

--192.159.xxx.xxx




Stock and Bond balance (by J [FL]) Posted on: Aug 5, 2020 7:50 PM
Message:

I think it would be really dumb for the government to try to break up Amazon right now. The USPS is failing and the country is very dependent on Amazon for a lot of items. Walmart is trying to compete directly with Amazon with it's new app but I believe it will end up like Google + that few people use. --72.188.xxx.xxx




Stock and Bond balance (by BillW [NJ]) Posted on: Aug 6, 2020 11:02 AM
Message:

Thanks LotF.

PG, thanks for the tips on selecting and IFA. My wife wonít even let me hire an accountant but Iím going to talk to her on that.

MikeA, thanks for the tip on running the fidelity simulation. Unfortunately, I couldnít find the place to enter the rental properties as assets. I ended up just calling the rentalís a medium aggressive account but that does look hokey. But thanks again.

--108.35.xxx.xxx




Stock and Bond balance (by Pmh [TX]) Posted on: Aug 7, 2020 6:15 PM
Message:

Bill: I can meet with a Fidelity advisor anytime. not sure where youíre at but I am a lot older than you so had more time to save...but perhaps make a call or visit local location & see if you can get someone who may offer guidance. --107.85.xxx.xx




Stock and Bond balance (by BillW [NJ]) Posted on: Aug 7, 2020 6:21 PM
Message:

Thanks Pmh. I'm going check that out. And I laughed and agreed with "bounce the check to the undertaker." I wonder if there's statistics showing if inheritances help kids or hurt them? From my personal experience, when people are handed money it hurts them. --108.35.xxx.xxx




Stock and Bond balance (by Nicole [PA]) Posted on: Aug 7, 2020 6:49 PM
Message:

...From my personal experience, when people are handed money it hurts them....

I'd say that is dependent upon the way they are raised and taught monetary responsibilities --72.70.xxx.xxx




Stock and Bond balance (by Pmh [TX]) Posted on: Aug 7, 2020 6:52 PM
Message:

I have not yet received an inheritance. my Dad left all his $ to my Mom. as is right. I worked 3 jobs to pay my way through university. hotel fd clerk in the mornings 7-3 brick burner 10pm- 6 am and on weekends did laundry at the state school. I have told my two kids they can buy my rentals (owner finance) or I will sell outright when I am 70 (hopefully a few years to go) and my wife & I will spend all our $ traveling around the world again. I have no intention of bequeathing $ to my kids. they know that. I am not super rich but they need to earn their own way. I have responded to too many clogged toilets to not enjoy what my wife & I have worked so hard for. you do need to set yourself a game plan though. --107.85.xxx.xx




Stock and Bond balance (by BillW [NJ]) Posted on: Aug 7, 2020 6:59 PM
Message:

MikeA, I reviewed what you said and what I did, and now the fidelity simulation makes sense. Thanks.

JR, I got Money Ratio$ today and itís a good read for me. Like you said, easy to understand and gets you thinking about all aspects of savings. Thanks.

So In the end, after running a simulation and taking into account what everyone told me, I decided to exchange my 8% cash for 4% fidelity blue chip growth and 4% fidelity international cap appreciation fund. The blue chips buy was driven by your encouragements and the international fund was added because the simulation suggested I needed some international investment. My bond % is still down around 18% as S i d recommended not adding to that. I figure at some point, I'll get the bonds back to the recommended 30% of my portfolio (for my age).

And after listening to my guy, Ben Shapiro, I'm thinking we are getting out of the woods of covid and maybe a bumpy ride to recovery.

--108.35.xxx.xxx




Stock and Bond balance (by J [FL]) Posted on: Aug 7, 2020 8:12 PM
Message:

I'm doing well. I've put a lot of money into the market (mostly individual stocks) since the low in March, and mostly it's worked out, except for Planet Fitness which I sold at a small loss. I'm not clear if that company is going to survive COVID.

However, I'm not sure if I should sell and get out at some point if this market keeps soaring? I would have to pay short term capital gains on the ones that are not in my IRA.

What do you think? Will this market crash again and retest the March lows? --72.188.xxx.xxx




Stock and Bond balance (by BillW [NJ]) Posted on: Aug 7, 2020 8:40 PM
Message:

Absolutely, Nicole, It depends on how they were raised. 70 percent of lotto winners lose all the money in five years or less. Iíd betcha, and I think you might agree, the 30% who did ok were the ones who were taught money as children (or highered and IFA:-). --108.35.xxx.xxx




Stock and Bond balance (by BillW [NJ]) Posted on: Aug 7, 2020 8:44 PM
Message:

Opps, I meant hire not highered. I should never post after my second glass. --108.35.xxx.xxx



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