So the latest C-19 (IMHE) model report is revised - what everyone was being told by the famous Dr with their model information is admittedly a drastic overreach by 90%. The number of those falling victim with the virus is dramatically reduced - talk about a head fake? Model Charts used now worthless. Fear-mongering panic for the peeps - seems suspicious eh? Guess the sky isn't falling after all? Ck out: X22 youtube

They are models. Some are designed to be conservative, some are designed to be generous. You run them all, add in the variables and come out somewhere in the middle. You let reality play out and rerun the models with the observed modified data. Yes, it is going to change over time. It's called data analysis and it's complicated and requires smart people. Armchair mathematicians need not apply.

I'm sure the environmental models predicting global warming are just as accurate.

Part of the problem with the models is that they used Chinese and Italian data. Chinese data was a lie, and Italian data was hampered with inaccurate Chinese tests.

To answer a previous comment about how unrelated deaths are counted just because the person had COVID-19 whether they died from it or not is pretty common in the medical community. They do the same thing on other studies whether the death count proves or disproves their data.

Trillions of tax dollars wasted.

Go ahead, I know you all will get me for that comment.

I am not saying that there is not a virous or deaths from it but people just panicked and lost there heads and went plain crazy over this and then of coarse the scammers come out and use that fear against them.

Have you ever heard this expert saying this or that expert saying that and then wander why they are considered experts? I call those self proclaimed experts.

Did you even read the IMHE data and releases? It is an update of the models using current data supporting that the social distancing efforts are working. Without those efforts that curve would have been as previously indicated or worse. We are in the early phase of this and those parts of the model are right on. Every warning that was given in the early part of this is completely accurate. Go back and take a math course.

And I got news for you it's not up to Trump in any way shape or form. It's up to our Governors who have been leading this country in the absence of any federal leadership. They are the ones who will make the decisions because of the dysfunctional nature of the current federal support. The virus is currently educating the Governors that haven't made the right decision.

Hey Jac, it seems that everyone who died with C-19 is being counted as dying from C-19. Thankfully, it appears as if C-19 death toll should be similar to that of flu.

Good gosh. Shut the economy down for 3 months? We'll have more to worry about than the virus.

US..

2017-2018... 61,000 deaths

2018-2019... 34,200 deaths

COVID-19... 16,600 deaths

Globally, the World Health Organization estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year.

Global C-19 death toll (Johns Hopkins)... 95,800

JAC: Well said, but you'll never get any traction here. They are all convinced this was still a hoax, that we over-reacted, and that we should all be back in church on Easter Sunday like Trump suggested.

They don't understand math, statistics, or that models changed because we took action that actually helped. They'd rather throw that all away and go out shaking hands again...

Sheesh.

- John...

Today's numbers:

Confirmed

490,008

Recovered

27,538

Deaths

18,011

The numbers posted are just the USA.

Worldwide:

Worldwide

Confirmed

1,673,423

Recovered

371,637

Deaths

101,526

Numbers should be trending down we are taking measures to do that.

Anyone who doesn't think this is serious is either an idiot, or doesn't know any doctors working in hospitals. If doctors are nervous you should be.

The death toll this virus takes out on nursing homes and in the Villages in Florida is going to be immense. If left to run wild it probably would fix social security though...

JAC, re: the 120k, the 200k, the 60k... If you recall, the original national projections were more like 2.2M, without mitigation, even into mid-March. Obviously, a month later-- we've mitigated, but we don't know how much of that not-2.2M was sheltering in place, vs how much of that was bad models.

People were okay with putting their lives on hold to save 2.2M lives out of a country of 328M. But now that actual data has been coming in for a month or two now--- people are more willing to put more of the burden of modifying habits on the vulnerable (sick, elderly, underlying conditions). The people who are less-vulnerable are anxious to get back to normal life. But the point was to keep from crushing the hospital system with an unexpected burden of hundreds of thousands of highly contagious extra patients--- and the hospitals are doing pretty well. I can't think of any actual hospitalizations in my area--- everyone who's tested positive has gone home to quarantine and recuperate.

In Texas, there have been under 15k confirmed cases. Almost 2600 of them have recovered. There's been slightly over 300 deaths. That's out of 29M, and across 270,000 sq miles. But more than 1M Texans filed for unemployment last month, and everyone's dealt with food supply disruptions, school shut-downs, extracurricular cancellations, business shut-downs, travel restrictions, and so on.

I wound still add that we don't know how many people were /are infected because there is no systematic testing. In NY sheltering definetly brought the rate down, except for the poor seniors in nursing homes. What's happened to them is a tragedy and facility operators should be held accountable when this passes.

Deanna we had 692 reported deaths in NY today and that's on the way down the curve. Probably remain above 500/day for another week.

JAC, if anyone's ever read "The Servile State", Belloc makes the excellent point that unbridled capitalism and unbridled socialism both lead down the same path. :) Distributism-- which is pretty much the polar opposite of globalism-- is an under-appreciated economic model. ;) But your comment doesn't address the point that, within the last month, articles were still touting the 2.2M number of American deaths, or the fact that people were anxious to avoid swamping the healthcare system with 21M hospitalizations.

Small Potatoes-- I have allergies that turn into pneumonia every couple of years. One year, it was really bad... and it was the first time that I was able to actually comprehend that people were capable of dying of pneumonia, rather than merely being inconvenienced by it. A lot of the survivor accounts agree that it's a very hellish disease to suffer through. Our one death in our area was a New Yorker who broke quarantine to come here-- but interestingly, for him, it was nausea, rather than respiratory issues, that made him go to the local hospital to seek medicine, and they gave him a test that came back positive after he'd passed. We still have another week to see if he spread it to his family, or if his family spread it further throughout the community.

But ultimately, it's dealt with at the community level, because we're not a homogeneous population, and we don't deal with problems homogeneously. Areas that rely on mass transit are going to be different than areas where you have to travel 30 miles to get to the next stop sign. Areas with 26k people/sq mile are going to be different than areas with 4 people/sq mile.

"But ultimately, it's dealt with at the community level, because we're not a homogeneous population, and we don't deal with problems homogeneously. Areas that rely on mass transit are going to be different than areas where you have to travel 30 miles to get to the next stop sign. Areas with 26k people/sq mile are going to be different than areas with 4 people/sq mile."

I don't understand why math is so hard for you people. Read the data sources and stop getting your highlights from your Youtube and TV channels. They are telling you what they want you to hear and not what is happening. Projections for high level of 2.2M were based on the early 2 months of data and real world data from areas of the globe that were experiencing the virus and was clearly defined as worst case with no social distancing measures and no behavior changes. Within that data it is stated that the peak would have occurred 3 months into the event with a 1.1 - 2.2M deaths. Most US States mandated social distancing and most of the smart populous has initiated behavior changes starting mid March timeline or 1 month ago. Additional data over that time has been received and re-factored into those models and we have dropped to where we are today; projected 60K around August 1. If you look at the old graphs and the new graphs the initial 1 month portion of the curve is right on the money. Using 2-10 days for symptoms plus up to 24 days for the course of the virus, that lines up with our flattening events occurring. Every localized curve has shown validity as well. UK, Italy, Spain, etc... Guess what, we still have another 6 months after August 1 to get to the year mark. No one has enough data yet to project beyond that point but if you infer based on what we have seen so far (never a good idea) you could see over 100K. We are going to see spikes. When you relax restrictions without a vaccine and people start to spend time together it will be inevitable. If we track, test and isolate it will probably be lower.

I think most of the people on here denying the disease, or at least the seriousness of the disease, live in rural areas or areas that have not yet been hit.

Exactly. There seems to be a lot of "If I can't see it personally, then it isn't happening" going on. :(

- John...

All I know is some people I KNEW have died from this. They got it from someone else who assumed they were healthy.

If everyone would have actually hunkered down this might have blown over already.

BRAD