Wait for another crash?
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Wait for another crash? (by ChicagoLL [IL]) Jun 8, 2019 8:19 AM
       Wait for another crash? (by NE [PA]) Jun 8, 2019 8:27 AM
       Wait for another crash? (by ChicagoLL [IL]) Jun 8, 2019 8:32 AM
       Wait for another crash? (by bet [MA]) Jun 8, 2019 8:38 AM
       Wait for another crash? (by NE [PA]) Jun 8, 2019 8:45 AM
       Wait for another crash? (by ChicagoLL [IL]) Jun 8, 2019 9:04 AM
       Wait for another crash? (by plenty [MO]) Jun 8, 2019 9:08 AM
       Wait for another crash? (by Robin [WI]) Jun 8, 2019 9:21 AM
       Wait for another crash? (by Beth [WI]) Jun 8, 2019 9:23 AM
       Wait for another crash? (by Adele [FL]) Jun 8, 2019 9:29 AM
       Wait for another crash? (by S i d [MO]) Jun 8, 2019 9:36 AM
       Wait for another crash? (by Deanna [TX]) Jun 8, 2019 9:45 AM
       Wait for another crash? (by Robert J [CA]) Jun 8, 2019 9:53 AM
       Wait for another crash? (by AllyM [NJ]) Jun 8, 2019 10:08 AM
       Wait for another crash? (by GKARL [PA]) Jun 8, 2019 11:07 AM
       Wait for another crash? (by WMH [NC]) Jun 8, 2019 11:25 AM
       Wait for another crash? (by Homer [TX]) Jun 8, 2019 12:05 PM
       Wait for another crash? (by WMH [NC]) Jun 8, 2019 12:18 PM
       Wait for another crash? (by Busy [WI]) Jun 8, 2019 1:46 PM
       Wait for another crash? (by ChicagoLL [IL]) Jun 8, 2019 7:42 PM
       Wait for another crash? (by Otis [IL]) Jun 9, 2019 12:50 AM
       Wait for another crash? (by AllyM [NJ]) Jun 9, 2019 2:12 PM
       Wait for another crash? (by ChicagoLL [IL]) Jun 9, 2019 4:21 PM
       Wait for another crash? (by Otis [IL]) Jun 9, 2019 10:05 PM
       Wait for another crash? (by Otis [IL]) Jun 9, 2019 10:08 PM
       Wait for another crash? (by ChicagoLL [IL]) Jun 9, 2019 10:54 PM
       Wait for another crash? (by Ray-N-Pa [PA]) Jun 10, 2019 10:28 PM
       Wait for another crash? (by pmh [TX]) Jun 11, 2019 6:08 PM
       Wait for another crash? (by Pmh [TX]) Jun 11, 2019 6:30 PM
       Wait for another crash? (by Cjoíh [CT]) Jun 16, 2019 10:31 PM
       Wait for another crash? (by Dan [NY]) Jun 16, 2019 10:51 PM

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Wait for another crash? (by ChicagoLL [IL]) Posted on: Jun 8, 2019 8:19 AM
Message:

Hello,

I've been a landlord since 2005 bought at the high at that time, (ouch). I've also bought in 2009, 2013, 2014, and 2016 was the last time I bought. I mainly invest in small multifamily properties because of cash flow. The real estate prices have gone up quickly. So I stopped buying from fear of bubble. In fact, I started selling a few last year and plan to sell more because of 2 reasons:

1. I expected the market crash to come soon. It's better to have cash on hand when everything is on sales after the crash.

2. I'm considering moving to Texas because it's much more landlord friendly. Eviction law in Illinois is a joke. The Illinois state also has a pending underfunded pension crisis. Once it blows up, they will raise taxes for all IL residents.

So, my plan is to move to Texas once the crash started, take sometime to settle there to learn the areas (probably 6 months), and start buying again. I know it sounds like marketing timing. I wonder what do you guys think about my approach? I wonder if anyone are waiting for another crash like me. Any opinions/advice is welcome :-)

Thanks,

Patrick

--73.168.x.xxx




Wait for another crash? (by NE [PA]) Posted on: Jun 8, 2019 8:27 AM
Message:

Deals are always in season. --50.32.xxx.xx




Wait for another crash? (by ChicagoLL [IL]) Posted on: Jun 8, 2019 8:32 AM
Message:

Hi NE[PA], thanks for your reply. Too bad I didn't get to meet you at the convention this year. Were you there?

"Deals are always in season"? Are you implying that it's better to wait for good deals when the right seasons come? --73.168.x.xxx




Wait for another crash? (by bet [MA]) Posted on: Jun 8, 2019 8:38 AM
Message:

The real estate market up and down markets are fairly predictable. We have been very fortunate of mostly buying and selling at the right time in the last 21 yrs. We may only have 2 yrs or less in this up market, we have sold 3 house in one yr and plan on selling another this yr. I think your plan sounds reasonable --73.227.xxx.xxx




Wait for another crash? (by NE [PA]) Posted on: Jun 8, 2019 8:45 AM
Message:

I was not at the convention.

I'm not implying anything really, stating a fact. Deals can be had at any time.

For me personally, I don't care what the media is saying about that stuff. --50.32.xxx.xx




Wait for another crash? (by ChicagoLL [IL]) Posted on: Jun 8, 2019 9:04 AM
Message:

bet[MA], thanks for sharing your opinion. Glad to know that I'm not the only one trying to time the market :-)

NE[PA], got it. --73.168.x.xxx




Wait for another crash? (by plenty [MO]) Posted on: Jun 8, 2019 9:08 AM
Message:

Its a plan. Sounds good. Carry on. Sell sell sell! --99.203.xx.xxx




Wait for another crash? (by Robin [WI]) Posted on: Jun 8, 2019 9:21 AM
Message:

Right now, good deals are hard to come by. Nonetheless, if you see a good deal, buy it! I like your plan--we've stopped buying at the moment because we haven't seen properties that meet our criteria. --204.210.xxx.xxx




Wait for another crash? (by Beth [WI]) Posted on: Jun 8, 2019 9:23 AM
Message:

Yes, get out of Illinois. Illinois is losing people. More people moving out of state than moving in.

They will clearly kick the can on the pension issue. Someday it will bite them back. As dire as things are for Illinois, I doubt anything major will happen soon. --47.12.xxx.xx




Wait for another crash? (by Adele [FL]) Posted on: Jun 8, 2019 9:29 AM
Message:

You are right, I have been anticipating another housing crash. I , too, want to buy more in the next crash! Texas sounds like a good choice. --76.242.xx.xxx




Wait for another crash? (by S i d [MO]) Posted on: Jun 8, 2019 9:36 AM
Message:

Hi ChicagoLL,

I think most of us will agree this doesn't "sound like market timing"...it IS market timing. ;-)

Knock it off...that doesn't work.

MAYBE we have 2 more years in the market like bet said...maybe 2 months....maybe 10 year. No one...I repeat NO ONE knows.

Going to sit out the game for a decade or go all in and get clobbered in 3 months? You don't know. Bet doesn't know. I don't know.

NE's advice is solid: buy when the deal makes sense.

If IL is bad enough to leave, then leave it now regardless of whether we crash today or 2029.

If a deal is good and makes sense today, buy it because it is good and makes sense.

I've got a similar story to yours. Bought our first rent house in 2005, then 11 more properties over the next 3 years, right up in the smack down of 2008-09, so I feel where you're coming from. But then I learned that the wise investor buys according to his/her criteria, not based on what the rest of the market MIGHT do tomorrow, next month, or next year.

Sure, follow Warren Buffet's advice: buy when you see blood in the streets. But meanwhile, find the deal that are there. That's what NE means, and he's right. --173.20.xxx.xxx




Wait for another crash? (by Deanna [TX]) Posted on: Jun 8, 2019 9:45 AM
Message:

There's plenty of room in Texas-- but for multi's, you might look into secondary cities rather than major ones. Dallas and Austin are overpriced. Houston is about 600 sq miles of sprawl-- it's good to know your market before you invest. San Antonio is worth considering, but (used to be?) very stratified--- either very affluent or very impoverished, but not a lot of middle. Fort Worth is (was?) better than the rest of DFW, but has been going through a ton of change, and my impressions aren't up-to-date. But smaller cities would have plenty of reliable opportunities-- like Killeen, or Waco, or College Station, or so on.

Good luck! --107.77.xxx.xx




Wait for another crash? (by Robert J [CA]) Posted on: Jun 8, 2019 9:53 AM
Message:

I've been investing in income property for the past 41 years. I've lived through 5 (five) up and down market cycles. As a investor in SFR and Units, I've seen each category "drop" 40% to 50% in value during a 5 to 12 year period.

I've seen the GRM (Gross Rate Multiplier) jump all over the map from a low of 5-Times to a high of 16-Times Gross.

Real Estate Cycles are REAL! To make my point, understand this:

A) When the GRM for units was at a low of 5 times gross, I could by units with almost nothing down and turn a huge profit each month.

B) When the GRM was over 12 times gross, I had to put a huge down payment just to break even, crossing my fingers that in time I could turn a profit.

C) And when the GRM was close to 14 times gross, I had to put 60% down just to qualify for financing.

I am a firm believer that besides "Location", "Timing" is almost everything in investing in income property.

--47.156.xx.xx




Wait for another crash? (by AllyM [NJ]) Posted on: Jun 8, 2019 10:08 AM
Message:

There isn't going to be a crash unless the other D party takes over. The 2008 crash was caused by Congress giving 200K mortgages to first time home buyers with iffy credit. Realtors pushed the cost of shacks up to 200K and sold them to people who had no idea how to make a house work. Then it got really cold and there were fuel shortages due to a couple of refineries shutting down from damage. So the home buyers had to decide whether to pay the mortgage or heat the home. Many chose to heat and then abandoned the homes. Some were evicted. None were permitted to resell even if they got in trouble. My tenants daughter and son in law lost one of those. The husband got hurt at work and even though the wife worked two jobs they could not pay the mortgage, could not resell and were evicted. So many people lost these homes that returned to the lenders that the banks crashed and brought down Wall street. The author of this plan is back in the Speaker of the House seat. Pres. Bush warned her not to push that plan but she said if he interfered she would mark him as a racist. So now we have grants going out as downpayments and the borrower has to return the grant if they sell. The Pres has ensured that we have a lot of reasonably priced energy due to the gas pipelines. Oil was the widely used heat in the old homes sold to the First Time Home Buyers in the vote buying scam in 2008. Every eleven years there is the chance of a turndown because the sun gets weaker and more energy is required for heat. Also it rains more and floods. So we are in that now but we have someone in charge who knows how to handle these kinds of issues. Never elect a poor dumb schmuck as they don't know how to handle wealth. --173.61.xxx.xx




Wait for another crash? (by GKARL [PA]) Posted on: Jun 8, 2019 11:07 AM
Message:

I agree with NE. Unlike the stock markets, real estate markets are "inefficient" and uncontrolled by trading algorithms. That means that deals can be had regardless of market conditions. I do think we're near a peak though and I'm seriously considering unloading one of my properties to raise cash and deleverage.

Many states will be having a pension crisis. Many of these plans are underfunded. A reversal in the markets will only make this worst. --209.122.xx.xxx




Wait for another crash? (by WMH [NC]) Posted on: Jun 8, 2019 11:25 AM
Message:

We've been steadily buying since about 2003.

Nowadays we just look for different kinds of spaces than we used to.

In the beginning we were looking for larger houses because we believed the more bedrooms the higher the rent. That turned out not to be true for our market. So we turned our attention to Smaller Places and that works for us.

Interestingly, although the rent is the same for smaller places, the PURCHASE PRICE is not. So we can buy the Tiny Ones for WELL less that a normal size home, but charge almost the same rent.

Appreciation is probably non-existent but we don't care, we want the cash flow not the equity. --50.82.xxx.xx




Wait for another crash? (by Homer [TX]) Posted on: Jun 8, 2019 12:05 PM
Message:

Texas is full. I saw an article the other day that 1000 people are moving to Texas each day. Keep in mind property taxes are way out of line. On a 150 k house, you are paying around $4300 per year on tax. The appraisal districts are aggressively raising values each year. They raised my values by over one million this year, I did protest each and every one, and was successful to some extent, but at some point I wonít be. Already paying well over 100 grand in property taxes on only 28 units. You can never truly own a home here. My mortgage payments each year are no where near property tax. I dream of selling every thing and going back to north Ga, or ever north Alabama --75.141.xxx.xxx




Wait for another crash? (by WMH [NC]) Posted on: Jun 8, 2019 12:18 PM
Message:

Homer that is CRAZY!!!!! --50.82.xxx.xx




Wait for another crash? (by Busy [WI]) Posted on: Jun 8, 2019 1:46 PM
Message:

Hey Chicago LL! It was good seeing you at convention. I agree with the dire straits of Illinois. We have room for you up in Wisconsin, , and our state is one of the very few with fully funded pension liabilities. Ignore the fact that our new governor tore down the ĎWisconsin is open for businessí signs on his second day in office. Weíre still open for business. Rooming houses are really going strong here again, if thatís your thing. Iíd avoid Madison and Dane county like the plague, their landlord laws may be the worst in the country. Milwaukee is OK, and areas around and further north like up in the fox valley are fairly landlord friendly. We donít make everyone eat cheese, beer and brats, but, if you like those, we have the best, and our football team doesnít suck. And we have a new Bucks player coming that could make you and NE both look short! We donít have fire ants, something Texas cannot say.

The next Apartment Association meeting of Southeast Wisconsin is Monday June 17th, networking starts at 5:30. Unfortunately, I have a family conflict for that day, or Iíd offer to put you up at our house for the night. My son and daughter-in-law are stopping as they take a grand road trip, so I wonít be able to attend that meeting. Next meeting is August ( July is a baseball outing- he landlords need to hav e fun too!) so, if August meeting interests you, you could bunk at our house for the night. ( weíve already shared a sweater., we could put you in our sonís old room.

Investors are still finding deals, as NE says. But, of course, if one move to a whole other state, there is a bit of learning curve, just to figure out that state. I, (obviously) am not the one to help you find fabulous deals, and make gobs of money, as that isnít the focus of my landlording practice. Iím just in it to make small bucks, continue learning new skills and teach my grandkids skills, along with working on some social issues that Iíll leave out of this discussion. ( please, anyone, do not sidetrack this thread from Chicago LLís relocation question to my Ďnot-for-most-peopleí practices. Yes, it has already been well-established that Busyís methods are not best practices, according to the voices on this forum.)

Anyway, I invite you to consider a move up north. --70.92.xxx.xxx




Wait for another crash? (by ChicagoLL [IL]) Posted on: Jun 8, 2019 7:42 PM
Message:

Thank you everyone for sharing your views :-)

plenty [MO], yep

Robin [WI], same here. I haven't seen good deals in the past few years.

Beth [WI], yeah decrease population is bad for real estate.

Adele [FL], what I like most about Texas is the fair eviction law.

S i d [MO], glad to read your message again :-) I wouldn't try to time the market if my market is stable like yours. Do you believe that the price of the first property that I bought in 2005 still has not fully recovered? During the crash, the price dropped so much. It was like 80% off. It was a painful lesson.

Deanna [TX], very appreciate your brief updates on Texas.

Robert J [CA], Location first and timing second, you said. Interesting. I'll keep in mind.

AllyM [NJ], ummm... but we have had crashes just about once every decade in the past century, haven't we? Why would this time be different? Because the fed is willing to print money?

GKARL [PA], yes IL is not alone with pension problems. It's nationwide. However IL is the worst.

WMH [NC], I still have the same believe that you had (buying bigger for higher rent). In my town, people are willing to pay more for larger space.

Homer [TX], I've heard that Texas has the 6th highest property in the nation. IL is the second. NJ takes the first spot. At least, taxes is predictable. The retarded eviction law in IL makes a lot of thing unpredictable. Losing $5K to $10K in lost rent in IL is a norm. I cannot take that any more. It's absurd.

WMH [NC], yes crazy but they have no income tax. That's cool.

Busy [WI], great seeing you at the convention as well! Thanks for recommending WI and offering to host me for the meeting :-) Frankly I want to avoid the super cold states all together. Whenever the furnace/boiler breaks down in winter, it becomes a life or death emergency situation. We can't live without heat here. I really hate that. At least people don't die if the air conditioner stops working for a few days in Texas. :-)

--73.168.x.xxx




Wait for another crash? (by Otis [IL]) Posted on: Jun 9, 2019 12:50 AM
Message:

No need to move out of state, just come south of Interstate 80 (get out of the Chicagoland area). Plenty of deals to be had. --45.18.xxx.xxx




Wait for another crash? (by AllyM [NJ]) Posted on: Jun 9, 2019 2:12 PM
Message:

Robert J., when you described the timing of the crashes you have experienced, 5 and 12 years, that's almost the solar minimum/maximum cycle, 5.5 years and 11 years. And it seems to depend also on how fast your area of the country reacts to it with cooler weather and rain. There could be an El Nino on it's way. When there is a lot of earthquake activity in Indonesia one usually shows up because it's volcanic eruption under the ocean in that area. --173.61.xxx.xx




Wait for another crash? (by ChicagoLL [IL]) Posted on: Jun 9, 2019 4:21 PM
Message:

Otis[IL], really? How about the eviction law for areas below I-80? --73.168.x.xxx




Wait for another crash? (by Otis [IL]) Posted on: Jun 9, 2019 10:05 PM
Message:

ChicagoLL they are actually pretty nice. If I have to go through a full blown eviction, usually 3 weeks from date the 5 day notice is served until the day they have to be out.

Pretty much if they can get the paper served fast enough after the 5 day notice then eviction court is on the first Friday after the court papers are served. Judge them gives them until the next Friday to get their crap out. --45.18.xxx.xxx




Wait for another crash? (by Otis [IL]) Posted on: Jun 9, 2019 10:08 PM
Message:

Once you get out of Cook county and the surrounding collar counties, IL is actually pretty landlord friendly. --45.18.xxx.xxx




Wait for another crash? (by ChicagoLL [IL]) Posted on: Jun 9, 2019 10:54 PM
Message:

Otis[IL], thanks for more info. Interesting, I never known that outside of Cook county and surrounding collar counties are LL friendly. Does the 5 day notice still have to be served in person? This is another sore spot in the eviction process. Tenants always try their best to avoid LL. In other states, it can be posted on the door. Can you shine the light on this?

Also, outside of Chicago land area, are there only farm land and single family home?

Thank you. --73.168.x.xxx




Wait for another crash? (by Ray-N-Pa [PA]) Posted on: Jun 10, 2019 10:28 PM
Message:

You can find deals but they are not anything like they were.........

Just the same, I have been using PACER to find deals now. The number of bankruptcies is down though.

During the last down turn - I was embarrassing myself with some offers that I was making - and they were still getting accepted every third time. --24.101.xxx.xx




Wait for another crash? (by pmh [TX]) Posted on: Jun 11, 2019 6:08 PM
Message:

Prices too high now in many parts of TX. I look fwd to the next crash to buy again. houses & stocks. we all saw the lines of people buying condos not yet built to flip to the person behind them in line. what confirmed to me what an idiotic situation it was was when I stopped to buy gas and the cashier, a young man of foreign extraction gave me his ďbusiness cardĒ and said he could find me $ to buy property. It was akin to the shoe shine boy who gave stock tips to Rockefeller in 1929...I then sold high into cash & waited. by no means a very rich man, but am richer now by buying low when mkts imploded. did keep some cash in the garage freezer for a few mos though...may need to cash out again though as trump crashes the economy. --70.119.xxx.xxx




Wait for another crash? (by Pmh [TX]) Posted on: Jun 11, 2019 6:30 PM
Message:

Homer. we donít need any more moving here bringing their socialist tax ideas here, escaping the taxes they voted for. we need walls on the west & north.... --70.119.xxx.xxx




Wait for another crash? (by Cjoíh [CT]) Posted on: Jun 16, 2019 10:31 PM
Message:

Pmh. you can say that again...........Charlie.............but donít let anyone hear you. .........................

--32.214.xxx.xx




Wait for another crash? (by Dan [NY]) Posted on: Jun 16, 2019 10:51 PM
Message:

We just refinanced on our last rehab. Iíve been poking around on Long Island, NY. However, prices are just very high currently, It is always difficult on Long Island to get good deals since real estate has always been expensive. However, those homes in the undesirable areas are expensive too. My last deal allowed me to rehab, pull my investment back out and maintain a positive cash flow of $300. The cash flow will increase to about $500 after tax grievance process is complete and I get my refund. I try to maintain a $500 cash flow on a property as my standard and increase it over time.

Homes are high currently so Iím looking, but being cautious so I donít get burned. --107.242.xxx.xx



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