I've been noticing a shortage in good tradespeople for some time, but also just received this notice from Harbor Freight within an email I received today:

We depend on skilled trades workers. They fix the cars we drive, they build and repair the homes we live in and they do so much more. Yet more than 1.5 million skilled trades workers will retire by 2024, and there are not nearly enough students entering the trades to fill those jobs. Even at Harbor Freight Tools, as we’re building and opening two new stores every week, we struggle to find enough skilled electricians, carpenters, plumbers and HVAC technicians.

The smart parents will be telling their kids to find an organization that needs these types of workers and they'll be able to write their own ticket to a better future. Many companies would probably even pay the bill to have them trained.

Here in Los Angeles the City and State makes it almost impossible to hire tradesman, unless they have their own company. Workman's Comp insurance is through the roof. There in a working minimum wage here. Anyone who works more than 8 hours a day has to be paid time and a half....

I know many HVAC and Plumbers making well over $100k per year that do NOT own their own business. Trades men and women that are rockstars in their field are getting crazy money and benefits (trucks, cell phones, commission on sales, vacation days, iPads, computers, and cool tools)

If my real estate dream fails, I will buy a van and become a full time handyman. Good chance I'll make more than I do now.

About 7 years ago, a kid I knew from high school had recently been released from jail. He said he had a dream while in jail that he had a big construction business with a crew. I figured it was a pipe dream and threw him junk jobs and he did whatever he could to stay busy. Worked for me a lot.

He calls me to help him from time to time on projects. Honestly, he's not even that skilled. Yet he has 9 guys working for him and did well over $500,000 in projects last year.

I'm afraid what will happen as the baby boomers die off. The younger folks have not learned the skills they need to know. I see corners cut all the time, especially on AC, often by a lack of training and education.

Kids don't have access to the shop classes we had in school. I took wood and metal shop, as well as home ec, clear back in jr high school. I probably made my first dovetail joint when I was 11 or 12. I built my first stairs, by myself, when I was around 16.

When I was young our family sailed a lot and I crewed on a large schooner, back when most boats were made of wood. I learned fine woodcrafting and how to varnish to a mirror finish and to splice wire rope. Later on a job an old guy taught me things like how to hand sharpen and set a saw. I built my own carpenters box like his and I still have it today nearly 40 years later.

Young people today are not learning these skills. Things like how a water level works or why one might use it instead of a laser level or transit (around corners). Or how to use a draw knife to shape a log into a bowsprit. They just want to see how fast they can get done and get paid.

Maybe some is the evolution of technology, I don't know how to make a wagon wheel like my great grandparents, but I do know how to steam wood and I could figure it out. The kids I see today don't even see such skills as relevant

I see total incompetency everywhere. Nobody seems to be able to complete a simple task without being told how, having their hand held, and they still fk it up and you end up doing it yourself.

I dunno, I guess I'm just old...

Back in the 1980s and 90s, there was a huge push to "Get a degree...any degree." I know because that's what I heard for almost 6 solid years of jr high and high school. From my guidance counselor and my well-meaning parents. I have to say it worked out okay...although I did switch from English to Info Tech.

In the year 2000s...the emphasis was "learn to code / computer networking" and you can write your ticket. So far, that has proven true. Cisco certified admins can still make well over $150,000, and many IT managers in big cities do about the same. Even in my relatively cheap cost of living city, IT managers and mid-level coders make $70,000 - $100,000. Not a princely sum, but still enough to live very well. Median house hold income in my town is a little over $29,000 ... yes, HOUSE hold. Talented HVAC techs with a few years under their belt can make $60-$70K, as can mechanical engineers.

But this trend is changing... Mark Rowe of "Dirty Jobs" fame and others are getting the word out. Give it some time. Here are a few encouraging examples of what's happening today.

A friend of mine (mechanical engineer and former VP of sales for Polaris marine division) helps run the GO-CAPS program through our public schools. The program places a huge emphasis on partnering with local leaders of industry and manufacturing to revive interest in the trades. Students meet with business leaders and do projects on everything from building conveyor systems to roller coasters (literally, he has one student who got an apprenticeship with Silver Dollar City, our local version of Disney World, based on his coaster design). Also, we have an excellent, large community college that teaches metal working, welding, HVAC, electricity, etc. Missouri's "A+" program ensures any high school student with a B average or higher and decent citizenship a full tuition scholarship for their 2-year degree or certificate program.

So take heart! I think we're seeing the beginning of change. Are there are lot of "worthless" liberal arts degrees still floating around? Yes... but times they are a changin'. The Millenials got sold a bill of goods about "get any degree" along with the Great Recession, and they have the lessons taught by their crippling student loans and $10/hour barista jobs as a result. So they're now teaching their kids about the value of the trades. People will go where there's money to be made and opportunity to be found, but keep in mind it takes about a decade to see the transition of a new way of thinking that starts in Jr High and ends after 2 years of Vo-Tech.

These young whippersnappers today don't know anything. Why, back in my day, we all went to shop class, lost a few fingers, and we liked it! Now get out of my yard!

The way I see it, there have always been young adults who got worthless degrees. Most do that because they are interested in the subject and not in learning a trade or getting a degree in engineering, business, etc.

The trade schools have always been there. But you can't force people to go and you can't force them to be good at what they do.

It seems to me that the real losers in today's labor market are those who are, let us say, not too bright or not too motivated. In generations past, they were the ones who stood in front of a big machine all day, punched two buttons to cause the machine to stamp out a part, then went home at day's end. These were not skill tradesmen. And these are the jobs that are gone and will never return.

The skilled and educated were the millwrights and engineers and managers. Today's factories still employ skilled millwrights, robotics repair techs, engineers, and managers. But not the guy who punched the same two buttons all day.

NE, most new businesses fail because revenue is not enough to cover costs. Not every business model survives. Even if a business thrives, it may not always. sears?

" Talented HVAC techs with a few years under their belt can make $60-$70K, as can mechanical engineers."

A mechanical engineer in this area with only a BS fresh out of college starts at $60k. If you have a MS (paid for by tuition reimbursement) and 10 years experience, you're looking at double that, $120-140k.

This business model certainly doesn't survive by paying more. The landlord naturally needs to be conservative. We have a defined amount of income every month. And sometimes undefined expenses. (Rainy day fund or not.)

NE, I wasn't talking about the LL. I was talking about companies like " Even at Harbor Freight Tools, as we’re building and opening two new stores every week, we struggle to find enough skilled electricians, carpenters, plumbers and HVAC technicians."

Mike Rowe has been pointing out this issue for years now. As he says, there are thousands of jobs out there going unfilled due to lack of skilled labor. And millions of dollars in student loan debt for degrees that worthless.

Unfortunately, the trades require hard physical labor. Kids brought up on video games don't want to work with their hands, they want to virtually experience life.

This is our fault. We wouldn't let them go outside to play, we wouldn't let them be "bored" so they could invent, we scheduled their time to the last minute of the day.

You know who has good skilled laborers? Mexico. My son has renovated 6 or 7 houses down there, maybe more now, from the bottom up, using electricians, tile workers, welders, etc. Doesn't do a lick of work himself because he can hire unbelievably talented people for pennies a day. They work in horrible conditions (Mexico is HOT!) Also no such thing as OSHA. I saw a guy welding a beautiful ironwork fence with a piece of smoked glass as his eye shield...

Again, there is no such thing as "lack of skilled labor" or " Americans don't want to do the work." The people hiring simply don't want to pay the market wage.

So, David, if I offer to pay $5000 an hour, the kid who sits on mom’s couch all day smoking weed and playing GTA is suddenly gonna know how to do finish carpentry? Good to know!

I had my electrician talk to one of my tenant’s kids about his career ( talked to mom about it first.). Since then, Mom said son has talked a little about it. His high school had HVAC guys come give a talk. Kids need someone to show them the options, and say, you can do this.

There is still the idea that ‘these jobs are gone, and aren’t coming back’ yet in my state, manufacturers are offering more and more, yet still can not get people to pass drug screening and to show up on time.

"So, David, if I offer to pay $5000 an hour, the kid who sits on mom’s couch all day smoking weed and playing GTA is suddenly gonna know how to do finish carpentry? Good to know!"

Not necessarily THAT kid, but SOMEONE will work for you for $5000 an hour. Certainly LOTS of people will, but if you only need ONE person, then somewhere between $1 and $5000 you will find ONE person "gonna know how to do finish carpentry"

"manufacturers are offering more and more, yet still can not get people to pass drug screening and to show up on time." Then they need to pay more. Simple supply and demand.

Locally, Home Depot is staffed by retirees and middle-aged women because they can't find young people who can pass the drug test. It has nothing to do with wages and everything to do with lifestyle. We have a huge opioid problem here and we are a small, isolated community. Talent for almost any job has to be hired from "away."

Mike, that is it. The simpleton idea that one can simply pay much more and qualified workers magically appear ignores elasticity if demand, elasticity if supply. Labor has a stepped supply line. It takes education to acquire the knowledge, skills, abilities. And, IF the less motivated person has plenty of comforts offered for no effort other than having a pulse, it takes lots of motivation to put down the Grand Theft Auto and decide to get the training to take up those high-paying jobs.

Those comforts can come in the form of social support benefits, or parent or romantic partners supplying the comforts. No, I am not saying end all social programs. Most do more good than harm, but, there is a tipping point. And parents need to make the best a little uncomfortable , sometimes a lot uncomfortable to get some adult children motivated. It starts when the kids are young. If my kids didn’t pull their weight, they didn’t get a free ride.

Encouragement. Pass it on.

"And, IF the less motivated person has plenty of comforts offered for no effort other than having a pulse, it takes lots of motivation to put down the Grand Theft Auto and decide to get the training to take up those high-paying jobs.

Those comforts can come in the form of social support benefits, or parent or romantic partners supplying the comforts."

In other words, inheritances .... only one spouse working ... ::grin::

None of those items you mentioned are restrictions to the labor market.

Minimum wage, trade licenses, trade unions, city permits, all of those are actual possible "holes " in the "tarp"

It's a shame the old system of apprenticeships has gone awry. They are out there, but are not marketed to this kid in high school as a viable option.

This Old House brought on apprentices in the past several seasons, and it was good see the old guys teaching the young ones the old tricks of their trade.

david, I wasn't talking about inheritances at all. And, as someone who spent many years as a "stay at Home mom, it Is sooo insulting that anyone implies I was a NON-working spouse. You try breastfeeding two three times a night,washing cloth diapers daily, running after active toddlers, making meals from scratch, patching clothes, sewing custom clothes for a child with special needs, cleaning the toilets, walking the dog and the babies in the stroller. and that was an easy day, LOL! OK, no, not all of that got done in one day. Nope, re reading that, that was a pretty typical day.

The kids that sit about that I see are sponging off of their parents couple I know with a son the same age as my daughter. Last I talked to them, their son, in his twenties, was still refusing to learn to drive a car. Or, as they put it, he wasn't wanting to learn to drive. My daughter , by contrast, was married, owns her own home, only $30k left on the mortgage, she is the primary breadwinner, though her spouse works and goes to school. There is something wrong with that other couple's parenting that they wopuldn't kick their kid into high gear. Even I went after my son's girlfriend in high school. She hadn't learned to drive yet,a s a senior in high school. I wasn't having it. I told her, if she was going to be with my son, she would need to learn to drive, as he couldn't be expected to run her everywhere, especially if they had kids. I wasn't mean, I was encouraging. Turns out my son is a very good teacher, he followed through, and taught her to drive. Thought they broke up, she still thanks me for giving her the nudge to drive. Last time I saw her, she was proud to say she was able to get a better job in another city, and is dating a fellow from that city. Drives on the highway even to go see him. She was proud!

Its not about blaming, are complaining about the excuses, for me. Its about a lack of holding people responsible, and pushing them to better themselves. Nobody benefits when people aren't learning simple daily life skills, like showing up to a job on time, paying rent on time, or making repairs to our rentals in a timely, workmanlike fashion.

And, NO, I am not against social safety nets at all. Very much helpful. But, there is the tipping point, where the individual gets lazy because it is hard to overcome. I saw that all the time in special ed. For instance, one young girl I worked with was not expected to be able to learn to walk independently. At three years old, she had not yet learned to crawl. a special , Very expensive wheelchair was ordered for her. Well, I don't give up easily. No, I wasn't a physical therapist. That's the person who just gave up on the kid and ordered the expensive wheelchair. This little kid was extremely food motivated (and already obese, 50 lbs at 3 years old, a whole other issue.) So, I put a single M and M on paper plates, about ten in a row, and helped this girl to low-fire crawl her way over to those treats, pushing against her feet. Daily. She would get mad and holler, and smack herself in the head. I would admonish her for hurting my friend (her) She was smart enough to be puzzled about that. As she strengthened, we moved to a standard crawl, thogh I had to support her belly from her obesity. You can guess, by the time that $20K chair arrived, I had her crawling independently and walking with assistance. Last I saw her, she was running around on a playground with the other fifth graders. Oh, and though still adorable and smart, she was no longer obese.

I think part of it has to do with the unpredictability.

You can be a plumber or an electrician or a carpenter for a big, corporate entity-- but for those who are working for themselves, not everyone is cut out to deal with the ebbs and flows of unpredictable work-- feast or famine. And if they get sick or hurt, often times, there's no income, and there's no paycheck-- unlike, say, an office job pushing paper. And with the kind of work they do, there's a greater chance of getting injured.

Predictability is nice. Steady income is nice-- not dependent on my health, or the weather, or whether other subs are behind-schedule, or the person who wants to hire me can't actually afford to pay me promptly, or whether my assistant is reliable, or whatever.

In my area I can offer full price and the workers simply don't show up.

I am selling off several houses because I cannot get anyone to work on them - at any price.

The touch screen (iPhone) has been out 12 years now. People smarter than me have studied and have legit statistics on children who have grown up with touch screens. These children did not develop spacial and "physics" skills (like how to climb a tree, stack blocks, pour water into a container...) because games on touch screens don't spill or fall over.

Just read an article how the Baby Boomers are dying broke, nothing to pass along to their Millennial children partly because the Mills soaked them dry or did not allow them to sell the big home and downsize, etc.

Our culture has made it too easy to live at home, spend on tech and cars, AND go into debt for college, cars...

A friend operates a Handyman franchise. He charges $100 per hour to the client and is booked solid.

BRAD

"In my area I can offer full price and the workers simply don't show up."

This is simply not true. If no one will work at that price, then by definition you are NOT offering "full" price. Your price is LOWER than the market wage.

"I am selling off several houses because I cannot get anyone to work on them - at any price."

This is also not true -- "at any price". You cannot get a worker to work for $1000 an hour?

David, you are assuming that PAYING more means you get more SKILLS. What we are all saying is that people are just not LEARNING THE SKILLS that we *want* to pay for. Just because I pay someone lots o' money to be a painter doesn't mean they can paint. Just because I pay someone big bucks to lay bricks doesn't mean he knows how to do it right.Hanging drywall seems to be a lost art. And PLUMBING. Wow some of the plumbing jobs we have inherited.

We hire people to do yard work and tree pruning and such. We pay them whatever they ask because we don't want to do it - but that doesn't mean they do it right because they don't.

I'll make the distinction between the construction trades/ union work which ebbs and flows with the economy and skilled trades, hvac, plumber, electrician. In the latter, esp plumbing in the ne it was almost impossible to break into the field w/out being connected. I use a hvac guy who worked for acommercial firm and residential on the side. He struck out on his own full time and has had a hard time retaining by help. They learn enough and think they can start out on their own. That's if they shaped up enough to stay on the job.

Heard a community College president lecture the other day. The future is coding and the upcoming alpha generation will be coding right out of the womb.

Around here, a lot of the trades still work on the apprentice system. You can't get into the guild unless you're allowed in by someone already there. There aren't schools here that you can go learn plumbing in the same way you can learn Spanish or Art History.

Ken is spot on. Day guys and workers look at me digging in and humping it and they know I'm not soft so when I tell them to pull their weight they can't complain. Plus it helps to be fair and not jerk them around for pay. I've even driven one kid to my bank so he could cash the check, because banks by me don't help people, they make it hard.