I am eyeing up the various segments of the commercial real estate market place and these values seem to have increased a great deal. I am wondering what your thoughts are on each of these segments. I am looking for a property type to exchange into in an upcoming 1031.

The apartment market place has been appreciating for about 8 years now

Mobile Homes who have king of cash flow but not so much for appreciating have gone up in value.

The retail market place is a tough one to look at. Just 20 or so years ago I was trying earn my MBA as cheaply as possible by buying my text books from a new company called Amazon. So what will the next 20 years look like? The current trend is towards free standing stand along buildings or in out parcels.

Malls -------ahhhhhhhh nope

Industrial properties? The EPA scares me too much

A quiet segment that not too many people invest in are storage units. That has been going up nicely

I am seeing Cap rates between 5.5% and 8.75% for franchise quality places. cap Rates like that are awesome when you are selling - but not so nice when picking up a replacement property

There is a small stand alone commercial building with a subway in it that is available. Its hands off LLing, but with a 6% Cap Rate....that is an easy way to go broke. So I guess I would need to find a place where you can add value to it or make it niche housing.

With enhanced housing, comes finding the help to keep the enhancements, well enhanced.

Senior citizen housing. Retirement homes. Nursing homes.RV campsites.

We know that 1) the population is getting older 2) getting sicker 3) will need retirement and nursing homes. 4) There is a separation widening between upper and lower wages 5) immigration - low wage housing is needed 5) retirees on social security only needing housing.

I'm concentrating on housing like this.

Apartments are still a good investment, but not in the same old markets (see post by GKARL[PA] Dec 9, 2018 4:16 PM).

Housing shortages have caused unaffordable rents in some areas, which forces workers to move elsewhere. Thus, the "elsewhere" market is stimulated. Immigration plus natural growth will ensure that there is always a market for housing, but not always in the same old place.

What yu will see in the next few years is a high cost of credit. This will, of course, dampen growth of both building and of sales, but it will also cause increases in rents. Any correction you will see will be due to the credit crunch rather than any actual weakness in the RE markey.

If you are doing commercial, need to find a niche. We 1031 rolled some farmland two years ago. Bought some warehouse/flex building in an area that is heavy industry... but lacking big storage. Bought the lone retail strip on the south side of town. Got an office building that cash flows like crazy in another town. So now we have retail, warehouse/flex, office building outside of the county, the apartments, and still have some farmland. Diversification is nice.... out of everything I mentioned, farmland is actually dropped in value due to low crop prices. Might want to look there...

With that said, I have been looking at commercial stuff. Nothing interest me right now. Over priced. Anything under 7%, I wouldn't look at. Some of the store fronts offering 6%, NNN lease seem interesting... but there isn't much of buyers market for it. I just saw a few stocks that are rock solid with nice divy (oil/gas transport/storage company, rock solid balance sheet, 6% dividend... easy in/out if things change).

I use to be in the Mall, shopping center and office building business. MBA's and CPM credentials are a must.