Thoughtful discussion. Just typing that subject line makes me nervous.

Just read the article BREAK UP AMAZON BEFORE IT DOES MORE DAMAGE TO AMERICA with lots of quotes from Scott Galloway (I’m a big fan of Galloway).

In a nitshell Amazon wants it all.

Some highlights and I’ll get to rentals...

More people are Prime members than own a gun, or go to church, or vote. Average spending $193 a month on Amazon.

We know it has changed the face of retail and knocked out huge companies.

When Amazon makes an announcement other companies tremble. The $15 pay recently announced is sending shock waves forcing other companies to pay the same or die.

They are still operating at a loss to snatch up all the business and run out competitors. Paid little to none income taxes.

Now rentals: Amazon wants to be INSIDE every home, not just Alexa, and are now offering services such as houscleaning, plumbing, painting...

They own Ring doorbells so they can see every person who comes to your door. Alexa hears everything, Amazon Prime tv knows what you watch, Amazon Key allows a driver to unlock your front door and set a package inside.

Future-

Could they do what some big hedge funds did and buy up tons of real estate and run rental management, competing with me directly? They have the manpower, the computer ability, the money, the clients...

Your thoughts on Amazon’s effect on rentals?

BRAD

Since prime members can't order up a rental for next day delivery, I'm not seeing much effect.

If great big Amazon goes into the rental business, I still get tenants who want the personal touch from a landlord.

If great big Amazon really does go into the rental business and delivers a next day apartment to prime members who order an apartment online, they will house all the losers that I don't want and that I very carefully screen out.

Based on just imagination.

It would seem that Amazon would cater to a new gated community crowd. Prime members who will pay to live in newly built high rise apartments. What used to be luxury will be the normal higher standard.

The savings to the residents would be cheaper food, cheaper laundry services etc etc. The prices, although cheaper, would exclude most of the working class folks.

(Do we still have people who work?)

I don't know what the rate of stolen packages may be, however if this is a growing concern, then those costs along with delivering door to door inefficiency, could be eliminated if Amazon was delivering into their private neighborhoods.

Amazon should continue to get into banking. It is the banks that need to be shaken up next. I'm certain Amazon has their eyes on pharmaceuticals as well.

I expect to see Amazon acquire a Zillow type business and combine services that currently go to multiple vendors. Whether they can succeed in their expansions remain to be seen.

No tree grows to the sky.

40 years ago Sears looked unstoppable. Then Wal mart.

"Could they do what some big hedge funds did and buy up tons of real estate and run rental management, competing with me directly?"

The first question I get from about 50% of my applicants is "Are you a private landlord". They know they won't qualify if someone screens. I think if Amazon does get into RE, it will be apartment complexes or multi-unit communities. I agree with the above that they will offer discounts to residents and they will never have to leave their house. It is somewhat scary to think about.

I'm not concerned. There will always be families who need my kind of rentals.

They don't pay income tax? A Dimm who doesn't pay income tax - how shocking.

Near me, they have a locker wall outside a 7-eleven, where customers can pick up small packages. Maybe that eliminates some of the package theft.

$15/hr will save America? show me how? It takes $35/hr and full employment to make a living, yet those who make $15/hr or less seem to have it all. You see them in the supermarkets with sky high shopping carts. You and I are paying. You see them in ERs waiting for the doctor. You and I are paying. You see them having fiestas in public

Who needs Big Brother when you've got Alexa? ;-)

No doubt you've seen those memes on Facebook. 50 years ago we worried about Govt placing surveillance devices in every home. Today, we say, "Hey, surveillance device! Order me the latest (blah blah blah)" and it shows up at our door in 2 days or fewer."

If you have a car that's less than 5 years old, there is a good chance that a dozen businesses and/or Govt entities that know everywhere you go, how you got there, and how fast you drove. If you talked, they may even have voice prints that IDs who was driving and who was riding with you. They know what kind of radio you listen too, which political shows, which pop culture stations, if you like NPR or Fox News....

All of it "crafted to give you a better experience." (wink)

Did I mention I love my '99 Camaro and '02 Ram! ;-)

Am I worried? No. Why not? Because if Amazon does something that actually impacts my market, I won't be able to stop them. None of us will. So what benefit does worry bring? "Worry is like paying interest on a debt you may never owe." -Mark Twain (attributed)

Amazon may conquer the world with our blessing, but I doubt it. The market has its own sense of who it wants to win and lose, apart from politicians and pundits. I think we continue to cater to niche markets. Amazon relies on bulk/mass markets.

We're all small potatoes here, even our heavy hitters. There's on RE company in my town that manages 3,000+ units, mostly apartments. THEY might have some worries from Amazon.

Or I could be wrong and we might be in our final days. But I'm not going to worry about it. You all know my feelings on debt, and it would be 100% more sucktacular to pay interest on a debt I never owed. ;-)

If Amazon were to shake up housing, I think beyond the newer large or gated idea, it would serve them well to some form of employee affordable housing (boarding house, camper lots, tiny homes, etc) near their $15 an hour distribution centers.

On another note, several years ago they bought out Kiva Systems to move their distribution centers to robots cutting down the numbers of workers necessary with the ability to decrease energy costs (lights and heat) as well. The purchase kept other e commerce businesses from being able to purchase the robots and compete which also disrupted the marketplace.

Amazon is a big company don't get me wrong, but don't overstate it.

Amazon did $177.8 Billion in revenue 2017

Walmart did $500.3 Billion in revenue 2017

Thanks for bringing this up, and I agree with S i d's post. I'd think that the Castellan Real Estate Group and Greenland Holding would worry more about Amazon's effect on real estate more than us. I am amazed at how companies are given such atractively low tax rates to do business in a city, and their low-paid workers end up resorting to public services for which we pay.

If Amazon ever wanted to get into real estate, it would probably be more like Pullman, IL. Or maybe DisneyWorld. Or Ave Maria, FL. Or something-- someplace where they could go into the middle of nowhere, and create something the way they could envision it, out of whole cloth, top to bottom, and influence who's allowed in, and under what circumstances.

When people throw out surprising stats ("More people are Prime members than own a gun, or go to church, or vote"), then I like to look into it. So, I did. And I think your statement is incorrect -- on all counts even. I don't know if it was just from you personally, Brad, or if you were just regurgitating something you read or heard somewhere. But, here are the real numbers...

Last time we had some official Prime subscriber numbers for the USA a year or two ago, it was at 90 million people. Bezos just announced two days ago that they had just crossed 100 million. So, let's say 100 million for comparison.

The number of people who voted in the most recent Presidential election was 139 million. (This is easily confirmed by multiple official sources with a simple Google search.)

So, no, it is not true that "More people are Prime members than [...] vote."

Ok, on to the next stat about gun owners. Well, that one is harder to check because you don't have to register for a permit in some states -- so there is no exact count. But, Gallop did a poll in 2016 and put it at around 1/3 of all Americans being gun owners. We currently have 325 million people in the USA -- which means that there are probably around 108 million gun owners in the USA.

So, no, it is not true that "More people are Prime members than own a gun[...]"

And, finally, church attendance. Again, hard to know exactly, but several surveys by reputable groups have been done. All I could find put the estimate for people that go to church "regularly" between 37% and 54%. So, that means that 120-175 million people in the USA go to church regularly.

So, no, it is not true that "More people are Prime members than [...] go to church[...]"

I'm not a fan of "click bait" titles or one-liners to try to get people's attention. Especially when those statements are simply false -- and easily disproved.

It's an interesting discussion/topic -- but people should be able to have such a discussion without giving incorrect stats to get attention.

- John...

Note that even if I adjust the numbers to just include the adults in the USA, it still works for most of the numbers (except MAYBE guns, but it is hard to get a real number there).

I did go find the original article and I see that it was someone else that original said it. But I think his numbers are wrong too.

Also: one mistake in my own data research... Bezos actually have the 100,000,000 number back in April, not this month like I thought at first.

I'll also point out that this year was the first time that Amazon ever gave out official information about the number of Prime members. Note that they did NOT say that they have sold 100,000,000 Prime subscriptions. They said that they had that many subscribers. So, when a person in a family joins, ALL of that family (including kids if they have accounts) become "subscribers" by Amazon's math.

I don't think the original article took most of that into account. They just took the 100,000,000 number and ran with it -- and made some statements that are simply incorrect when you do the math.

- John...

The 100,000,000 number was global subscribers.

An estimated 10,000,000 of those Prime subscribers are in India.

Then again, there was a 2014 report about Amazon gaining 10,000,000 US subscribers over the 2014 holiday season. :P

10,000,000 here, 10,000,000 there-- who would want to mess with toilets, sewer lines, and shifty doors? :P

Deanna: Ah, yes, I see it was. So, that means the USA number is even less than that -- making the statement about it being more than the number of "voters, gun owners, or church goers" even more incorrect. :)

Thanks!

- John...

I'm sure a ton of companies started out saying, "I aint afraid of Amazon" just before Bezos came in and crushed their hopes and dreams of a bright future.

Amazon is totally in the right place to be landlord material--- they were happy to operate at a net loss for 15 years before turning a profit! :P :P :P

But ll'ing isn't the sort of thing that can be streamlined and automated and mass-scaled.

I'm small potatoes myself, but today, I:

* Had an electrician repair a dryer line with a short in it at House A

* Looked at some settling that had happened at House A

* Asked about tenant's niece and nephew. They rebelled against her rules, and are no longer with her-- so they've decided to stay where they are, instead of going to House B, which is under renovation.

* Had an electrician look at a meter with a burnt loop that was discovered at vacant House C

* Did a treatment of Advion over at a vacancy at House C where the tenant had brought in roaches from public housing

* Drove by to see if tenants at House D had mowed the grass.

* Checked the bank account to see if I was filing eviction on House D whether they mowed or not.

* Had my handyguys wrap up garage doors over at House E

* Discussed drywall work and closet construction at House E for next week

* Had my other electrician remove some external wiring from the front porch and abandon the garage panel at House E

* Paid Electrician #2

* Paid Handyguys for the week's work

* Paid Yard Guy for taking care of the yard at House F

* Discussed some tree trimming at House F and G when the weather clears

* Worked on the accounts

In addition, I:

* Need to go seal some grout over at House G to finish off the tile replacement after some emergency plumbing from earlier this week

* Would have field-tripped to the Appraisal District to get a map of the boundaries for House H, because the neighbor was making sneering comments to the tenant about my driveway belonging to him (but I decided to save it for when I could combine the trip with another errand)

* Would have concreted a fencepost at House H (but it was raining today).

If even a nobody like me has their plate full---! But there's no rhythm, no pattern.

Amazon will never be in rentals. Real Estate will be for the mom and pops (like us on here) and REITS. Hedge funds got into it because it RE was so knocked down, it was worth the headache and there was no other good investments.

Give trump another two years, get the postal service to renegotiate the parcel rate charge, amazon will have to create their own fleet. More expense, more headaches. Either way, there is already talk of breaking up Amazon, FB, and Google up.